2/7/14: Portfolio Updates
Below is a round-up of news on a handful of Portfolio names. There will be one more interim update before the next monthly issue.
Since we took over this service in May 2013, copper mining and exploration company Aditya Birla Minerals Ltd (ASX: ABY, OTC: ABWAF) has traded as high as AUD42, but never broke above its October 2012 entry price of AUD0.50. The AUD100 million company has been rated “hold” largely due to the fact that it last paid a dividend in mid-2012. Unfortunately, the 16 percent drop in the Australian dollar from its 2013 high has compounded the decline in the share price when it’s expressed in US dollar terms.
To be sure, ABY has always been a highly speculative turnaround play: Its fortunes hinge upon a single key commodity whose demand is closely correlated with the performance of the global economy.
In prior rebounds, the stock has produced stunning gains, jumping multiples from its lows. But even those investors who bought in when the stock had already fallen significantly from its near-term highs still had to have the fortitude to endure further downward volatility before enjoying the subsequent price spikes.
During the Great Recession, for instance, shares of ABY fell precipitously from a near-term high of AUD2.93 in May 2008, ultimately bottoming near AUD0.10 (yes, you read that right) toward the end of February 2009. By October 2009, the stock had climbed back to AUD1.61, for a staggering gain of 1,510 percent in just over seven months, at least for those daring enough to buy in near the low.
From there, the stock began a heart-stopping descent once more, falling to AUD0.64 by early July 2010, down about 60.2 percent from its earlier high. The stock then proceeded to rise to AUD1.89 by late April 2011, a near triple.
So for investors who bought in after the stock had already suffered a significant selloff, ABY has been a high-risk, high-reward play, at least in the past. Assuming the company’s financials can endure until commodities rebound, then the stock could reprise these earlier performances. But we don’t know when that will happen, or even where the stock will ultimately bottom this time around.
Copper is widely seen as a leading indicator of the global economy, and while we remain skeptical about the global recovery, eventually growth will reassert itself. For now, based on the price of futures on the London Metal Exchange, copper trades near USD7,041 per metric ton, down about 30.7 percent from the red metal’s post-Great Recession high in early 2011.
Unfortunately, current forecasts do not suggest a strong resurgence in copper prices anytime soon. Based on data aggregated by Bloomberg, analysts project copper will continue to trade near current prices through at least 2017. These forecasts likely account for an expected increase in supply–Barclays says global production will outpace demand by 167,000 metric tons this year, compared to a deficit of 137,000 tons in 2013–along with a continued slowdown in China, which is the world’s largest user of copper.
Given the muted medium-term outlook for copper, the main reason we continue to hang onto this stock is because we believe that some of the larger companies that operate in Australia’s resource space could use the decline in the sector as an opportunity to acquire smaller peers.
While a larger suitor has yet to emerge, this company already has substantial backing, as it’s a wholly owned subsidiary of Hindalco Industries Ltd, which owns 51 percent of shares outstanding. Hindalco, itself, is owned by the Aditya Birla Group, one of India’s largest industrial conglomerates. ABY sells its copper-in-concentrate production to Hindalco under contract, at arm’s length terms, with pricing renegotiated annually based on regional industry benchmarks.
While that provides the company some stability, ABY could still raise cash by selling off one of its mines or even be acquired, assuming the price is right.
To that end, last July ABY put its Mt. Gordon mine up for bid. The company idled the mine last April, due to the decline in copper prices since reopening it two years earlier, at a time when copper traded much higher, around USD9,600 per metric ton. Management said the mine’s production had been lower than projected, resulting in operating costs that were deemed “unacceptably high.” Ceasing production on the mine when it’s uneconomic saves the company about AUD12 million to AUD15 million annually.
ABY hired ANZ Banking Group last February to conduct a strategic review of Mt. Gordon to examine all options available for it. According to the company, that review remains underway.
At the end of September, the company announced the discovery of a new copper deposit at Mt. Gordon, with a minimum inferred mineral resource of 12.5 million metric tons, at 1.3 percent copper. The find could extend the life of the mine by another 16 years once it’s under operation again.
Although the company doesn’t report earnings until the end of April, it did recently release an activity report for the fourth quarter that showed ore mined at Nifty, its other mine, had increased by 2 percent sequentially, to 610,037 metric tons, while ore that was processed increased by 3 percent, to 625,554 metric tons. Meanwhile, copper production decreased by 13 percent, to 11,622 tons, due to a reduction in average grade, which refers to the percentage of mined ore that actually consists of copper.
On a year-over-year basis, however, these numbers represent sharp declines. Ore mined dropped by 26.3 percent, while total copper produced fell by 38 percent. These figures are somewhat less dramatic when factoring in the stoppage at the company’s Mt. Gordon mine.
Finally, total copper sold declined by 62 percent, to 8,393 metric tons. Management attributed part of this result to a delay in shipments due to Tropical Cyclone Christine, which shut down Port Hedland for several days in late December.
With a challenging operating environment, ABY’s management team has been disciplined with regard to capital expenditures, spending AUD26.1 million during the six-month period that ended in December, compared to AUD42.6 million in the prior year’s period. Management projects spending of around AUD36 million for fiscal-year 2014.
Meanwhile, the lower production numbers have raised the cost per metric ton, so management has taken a number of steps to reduce costs and increase the efficiency of its operations.
Interestingly, ABY’s current market capitalization of AUD100.3 million means the company trades for 15.3 percent less than the AUD118.5 million in cash and cash equivalents it had on its balance sheet at year end.
The bottom line is that this is a stock that will remain challenged for some time. For now, Aditya Birla Minerals remains a hold.
Although we recommended John Hancock Premium Dividend Fund (NYSE: PDT) after it had already fallen 11.5 percent from last year’s high, admittedly, we still got in earlier than we should have. A majority of the closed-end fund’s (CEF) portfolio is allocated to preferred stock, with a particular concentration in the utilities and financial sectors.
That makes it particularly sensitive to the Federal Reserve’s taper of its extraordinary stimulus, and though we thought that such a move had already been priced into its shares, PDT subsequently fell as much as 14.4 percent from our entry price.
Fortunately, it’s climbed about 6.8 percent from the aforementioned low in mid-December, putting it 8.5 percent below where it traded upon initial recommendation. On a net asset value (NAV) basis, the CEF is down 8.9 percent since recommendation, while on a distribution-reinvested basis it’s off 3.3 percent.
The selloff in fixed income during the fourth quarter weighed on the portfolio’s results. In their quarterly commentary, management says they believe preferred securities will rebound in 2014, noting that they were cheap at quarter-end, with a yield advantage of four full percentage points over 10-year Treasuries. That spread is well above the average that’s prevailed over the past 15 years. The fund took advantage of this dislocation by selling some of its equities and adding to its preferred stock holdings.
We trust PDT’s seasoned management team to successfully navigate this environment. The fund currently trades at a 10.3 percent discount to NAV, which is lower than its average discount over the trailing one- and three-year periods. With a distribution rate of nearly 8 percent, John Hancock Premium Dividend Fund remains a buy below 13.24.
Like Aditya Birla Minerals, Lightstream Resources (TSX: LTS, OTC: LSTMF) is another legacy recommendation that we continue to hold with hopes that it might be acquired by a larger entity. The stock sold off over the past year as it became apparent that management would have to cut the dividend, a move which was finally announced toward the end of November.
The payout was halved from a monthly rate of CAD0.08 per share to CAD0.04 per share, effective with the December dividend, which was payable as of mid-January. At current prices, the forward yield for the stock is 7.9 percent.
Although the company isn’t expected to report earnings until March, there was some intriguing insider activity during the latter half of 2013.
According to Bloomberg, insider holdings have jumped by 26.2 percent over the past six months, and insiders now hold nearly 4 percent of shares outstanding.
Over that period, the data show that four insiders bought 1,161,900 shares on the open market at an average price of CAD5.51, for a total outlay of CAD6.4 million. Most of the shares were bought as the stock hit its recent trough between late November and mid-December.
President and CEO John D. Wright accounted for the vast majority of buying, at 1,030,100 shares by our count. While insider buying can be done for public relations purposes, particularly at beaten-down names like Lightstream, Mr. Wright’s purchase was a significant investment.
That suggests he has considerable faith in the company’s plan to strengthen its balance sheet by cutting debt while maintaining production near current levels–or at the very least, faith in the attractiveness of the company’s portfolio of light-oil assets to potential suitors.
Although there’s too much uncertainty surrounding this name to merit a buy target, the recent insider activity suggests current shareholders have a reason to stick around a bit longer. Lightstream Resources is a hold.
LRR Energy (NYSE: LRE) announced it will increase its quarterly distribution for the sixth consecutive quarter, to $0.49 per unit from $0.4875 per unit. The $1.96 annualized payout represents a 12 percent yield at current prices. The new dividend will be paid on Feb. 14 for shareholders of record as of Jan 31.
LRR Energy remains a buy below 18.
Natural Resource Partners LP (NYSE: NRP), yet another legacy recommendation, announced on Jan. 10 that it would be cutting its quarterly distribution to $0.35 per unit from $0.55 per unit, a 36.4 percent drop. As a result, the master limited partnership (MLP) sold off sharply, and the units currently trade about 22.7 percent below their price prior to the announcement.
The reduced rate was effective with the January payout. The company expects 2014 distributable cash flow (DCF) to fall to $195 million to $230 million compared to 2013’s expected $290 million to $320 million in DCF.
NRP’s coal business continues to struggle due to high exposure to Central Appalachian coal, and dividend reduction will allow the company more breathing room as it diversifies into other growth opportunities. Potential sources of future growth include aggregates, a category encompassing the crushed stone, sand and gravel used in building key infrastructure, such as roads and highways.
The company expects to achieve a 1.2x to 1.4x coverage ratio with the reduced payout. At current prices, the MLP yields 8.9 percent. Natural Resource Partners is a hold.
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