Flash Alert: Portfolio2020 Update
It’s been several months now since we pulled down the curtain on our Portfolio2020 advisory. At the time, we promised to keep you apprised of developments concerning our model Portfolio recommendations.
Most of these companies are tracked on a regular basis in other publications. In Utility Forecaster, for example, I follow AES Corp (NYSE: AES), American Superconductor (NSDQ: AMSC), Electricite de France (Paris: EDF, OTC: ECIFF), Iberdrola (Spain: IBE, OTC: IBDRY), Insituform (NSDQ: INSU), Itron (NSDQ: ITRI), Kinder Morgan Energy Partners LP (NYSE: KMP) and Ormat Technologies (NYSE: ORA).
Yiannis Mostrous tracks China High Speed Transmission Equipment Group (Hong Kong: 658), China Metal Recycling (Hong Kong: 773), China Resource Power (Hong Kong: 836) and the now-acquired Hyflux Water Trust (OTC: HXWTF) in The Silk Road Investor. That product also has a growing metals component that Elliott Gue and I contribute to, covering the likes of BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP), Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (NYSE: FCX), Vale (NYSE: VALE) and Xstrata (London: XTA, OTC: XSRAY).
Finally, in The Energy Strategist Elliott keeps tabs on MP Evans (London: MPE) and Kinder Morgan Energy Partners. Kinder is also a recommendation of MLP Profits, the weekly advisory on master limited partnerships that Elliott and I have co-edited for the past year and a half.
Less followed have been our handful of high-tech favorites, mostly recommended by former editor Gregg Early, as well as my own pick Alstom (France: ALO, OTC: AOMFF). They include AeroVironment (NSDQ: AVAV), BASF (Germany: BAS, OTC: BASFY), Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), QinetiQ (London: QQ, OTC: QNTQY), Qualcomm (NSDQ: QCOM) and Starpharma (OTC: SPHRY).
The good news is most of these recommendations have remained in good shape since Portfolio2020 stopped publishing. That’s evident from a quick scan of the still-functioning Portfolio table at www.Portfolio2020.com. In fact, the “Total Return” numbers shown generally understate performance of non-US companies, as they don’t include currency gains.
Equally positive is that virtually all of these remain solid companies, as demonstrated by their most recent quarterly numbers. Those that pay dividends continue to cover them with profits by a comfortable margin, and in fact are increasing them at a growing rate. And all are building core businesses that ensure future prosperity as well.
Below we update numbers and results at each of these companies, along with our current advice. Note that the timeliest source of information for companies tracked in other publications will be those other publications, as Portfolio2020 is no longer an active advisory.
Beyond Our Borders
These are companies based outside the US that currently dominate their businesses. They’re also doing what needs to be done to dominate their industries going forward, adopting needed technologies, expanding into growing markets and maintaining financial and managerial strength. Our goal with these was basically to buy and hold as they build wealth, with the caveat that if that business case weakens we want to be out.
Alstom (France: ALO, OTC: AOMFF) has basically given us flat returns since its addition to the Portfolio in November 2008. That’s mostly a function of continued flat earnings, held back by continued weakness in Europe and the US. On the positive side, margins were right in line with management projections for the first half of fiscal 2011, excluding the impact of four months of Grid operations consolidation.
On the negative side, orders remain weak, down 20 percent from last year mainly on a poor market for thermal power plants. Orders from Asia (21 percent of contracts) not surprisingly continue to grow for everything from transport to power plants, while emerging markets in general are now half of overall orders.
Encouragingly, the main reason we recommended the company in the first place–a key position in cutting edge energy technologies–remains intact. That suggests strong returns to come, though not before the global economy shows more life. I plan to pick up coverage of the stock in Utility Forecaster under Utility Technology beginning next year. Until then, Alstom is a buy up to USD50 for patient investors.
BASF (Germany: BAS, OTC: BASFY) has basically doubled our money since its recommendation in September 2008. The primary reason is solid earnings keyed by cost-cutting and the company’s ability to tap into China’s growth. The company’s Asia chief Martin Brudermueller expects a record 2011 as well, keyed by that country’s emerging demand for plastics, which are used for everything from food packaging to disposable razors. BASF projects additional Chinese demand for chemicals alone of USD419 billion by 2020 and expects to resume dividend increases later this year.
The company’s full-year 2010 revenue is now projected to rise 12 percent plus by year’s end. The stock has long since exceeded our buy target of EUR48. Given the gains so far, taking a profit isn’t a bad idea, for example selling half your stake. But this one appears to moving along nicely. Note we don’t cover BASF in any other publication.
China High Speed Transmission Equipment Group (Hong Kong: 658) has given us a solid profit thus far, as demand for its transmission system product line has continued to pan out. Core cash flow has risen 237.7 percent over the past 12 months, and first half profit rose 55 percent, as profit margins rose to 16.7 percent of sales. Wind product sales revenue surged 71.4 percent to hit 70.9 percent of total sales revenue.
The company remains at the favorable confluence of China’s surging demand for electricity and growing need to generate it without further degrading the air. That’s likely to keep growth going for a long time to come. Our buy target for China High Speed Transmission Equipment Group remains HKD20. Note that Yiannis Mostrous follows this stock in The Silk Road Investor.
China Resource Power (Hong Kong: 836), also covered in Silk, has fared less well, dropping a little less than 30 percent since its September 2008 recommendation. The company’s problem is that it’s caught in a squeeze between volatile coal prices and the rate lag, as the Chinese government has only belatedly passed through the costs.
The company is still enjoying strong growth in demand from the world’s fastest growing power market–sales surged 51 percent on a 41 percent jump in output. But this is a problem that isn’t likely to be resolved anytime soon. The stock is cheap relative to its growth rate. Hold China Resource Power.
Electricite de France (Paris: EDF, OTC: ECIFF) has also not panned out as we’d have liked thus far. The company has continued to build its presence in nuclear energy globally in recent months. And it’s now the sole owner of a venture that may build power plants in the US, after buying out former partner Constellation Energy Group (NYSE: CEG). The company has also oriented its nuclear expansion plans toward Europe rather than Asia.
Low natural gas prices and a carbon market in limbo in the US will remain a crimp on growth going forward. The tradeoff is the company is very solid and well positioned when nuclear power does get hot again. Electricite de France is a buy up to USD45 for the patient. It’s covered in Utility Forecaster under Foreign Utilities.
Hyflux Water Trust (OTC: HXWTF) has been bought out at a premium, handing us a total return of 167 percent since October 2008. Shareholders by now should have received cash in the amount of 58 cents US per share. The position should now be considered closed.
Iberdrola (Spain: IBE, OTC: IBDRY) is roughly flat with our initial recommendation, as continued weakness in European power prices and the disappointing performance of its green energy unit initial public offering have weighed on its price.
On the other hand, management has been successful reducing debt with a series of asset sales, such as its Connecticut natural gas utility distribution operation to UIL Holdings (NYSE: UIL). The company has also continued its targeted capital spending on growth ventures, including a 30 megawatt solar plant deal with SunPower (NSDQ: SPWRA) in Colorado.
Nine-month fiscal 2010 profits was up slightly on renewable energy output, which offset weakness in the core Spanish market. No one should expect this stock to rally until European power markets improve. But the company remains a solid way to play the growth of renewable energy globally, and pays a solid dividend as well. Iberdrola, tracked in Utility Forecaster, is a buy up to USD35.
Cutting Edge Tech
These are recommendations designed to tap into technologies reshaping the global economy. Our goal is big gains, and we’re willing to ride out ups and downs as they build their businesses, though we did advise taking profits on particularly big gainers–for example selling half of a stock gaining 100 percent or more.
AeroVironment (NSDQ: AVAV) is still off about 25 percent from our initial recommendation. But the developer of power systems for the utility sector and US military is still getting orders and laying the groundwork for future growth. NRG Energy (NYSE: NRG) this week selected the company to build the nation’s first privately funded electric vehicle charging system, a USD10 million project in the Houston area.
As we’ve said before, this isn’t a stock that can be valued on earnings or revenue, which puts it in a special speculative category from our other recommendations. It still appears to be doing what it needs to reach its growth goals and it’s probably been through the worst shareholders are likely to see. Hold Aerovironment if you have a position. But anyone with fresh money–except a patient speculator–will probably want to look elsewhere. Note we don’t cover it in any of our other publications.
American Superconductor (NSDQ: AMSC) has given us a 54 percent return thus far and shows every sign of rewarding us with a lot more. The company has successfully expanding its market from the US Dept of Defense to power companies all around the world, with a focus on Asia Pacific, India and China. Products are now used for getting renewable energy efficiently to market, including superconductor wire for which it this fall received the world’s first commercial volume order. Management this month raised its full year growth targets for fiscal year 2011 as well. Buy American Superconductor up to USD40. Note that the company is tracked in Utility Forecaster.
QinetiQ (London: QQ, OTC: QNTQY) has taken a bath since our initial recommendation in September 2008. But the company has shown some signs of life, this month winning a USD1.96 billion contract from NASA to provide engineering services at the Kennedy Space Center in Florida. On the other hand, the company has had its share of failures as well, writing off GBp37 million on a cancelled bid for sniper detector systems with the UK government. That’s unfortunately the kind of up and down action this company continues to be known for, and it’s certain to keep this stock very volatile. We don’t cover this stock in any other publication, and we don’t plan to anytime soon. Hold QinetiQ.
Qualcomm (NSDQ: QCOM) is roughly flat with our entry price of a little more than a year ago. The company’s licensed product line is nicely meshed with the growth of global demand for broadband communications, particularly the proliferation of smart phones. That’s helped contribute to expectation beating earnings in recent quarter and solid revenue growth. The stock has made a huge comeback this fall from lows reached in spring, as have many technology stocks. That suggests it’s likely to remain closely tied to the overall market in coming weeks, rather than its own prospects. We don’t cover this stock in any other publications. Hold Qualcomm.
Australia’s Starpharma (OTC: SPHRY) has been a huge winner, as its drug delivery systems have at last won approvals to proceed with development. The possibilities now are a takeover by a larger player or continued development and partnering with other companies, particularly its microbiocide gel for women used for the prevention of HIV.
Generally, it’s a good idea to take some money off the table when you have a big winner, and this looks like such a case, with the stock selling well above our most recent buy target. Hold Starpharma. Note we don’t cover this one in any other publication and we don’t plan to anytime soon.
Metals and Materials
These are bets on the growing call on resources, mainly from developing Asia. Here, we’re playing for big gains but with the caveat that these stocks can be extremely volatile. It often makes sense to take profits on a particularly big winner.
BHP Billiton’s (NYSE: BHP) failed bid for Canada’s Potash Corp of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) shouldn’t inhibit its long-run growth or its ability to profit from the continuing global resource boom. The writeoff of USD875 million in “failed deals” will likely force the company to invest more in “organic” growth, rather than making major acquisitions.
That’s not all bad, however, as the company enjoys massive development potential in iron ore used in steel, as well as a host of other energies and metals, all of which are in very bullish price trends. There may be other companies more leveraged to resource prices but there are few higher percentage bets on commodities. Buy BHP Billiton on dips to USD82.
Alternatively, those who’ve held since our initial recommendation–and who have something close to our posted 134 percent return–may want to take some profits from current levels. BHP is a Personal Finance Growth Portfolio recommendation.
China Metal Recycling (Hong Kong: 773) is roughly flat from our entry price. But it remains squarely tapped into China’s ever-growing need to use the metals from industrial processes efficiently. The country is set to remain a net imported of scrap steel for more than a decade, as demand grows to an estimated 200 metric tons in the next eight to 10 years. That adds up to tremendous earnings growth potential. Buy China Metal Recycling up to HKD10. The company is in the Silk Road coverage universe.
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (NYSE: FCX) is benefitting from revived demand for copper globally, as well as the continued bull run in gold prices. Our return is now roughly 30 percent in about eight months, and we look for much more ahead.
The company’s principle challenge is finding ways to boost output in coming years, and it holds stakes in several key plays that should make that possible, including its core Grasberg mine in Indonesia.
The company is now the second-largest producer of copper in the world behind Chile’s CODELCO, but Freeport-McMoRan is far better diversified geographically than its South American peer. It’s also managed to work in difficult environments like the Congo, where others have had more trouble. Earnings are on the rise, as are dividends, up more than three-fold since May. Our buy target for Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold is USD100. We’ll track this one in the Silk Road coverage universe.
Palm oil producer MP Evans (London: MPE) has been a big winner of the global boom in agriculture stocks and is up about 25 percent from our early 2010 recommendation. The main driver is the surge in palm oil prices from around USD800 per tonne in July to around USD1,150 more recently. The price of soybeans, a substitute for palm oil, have also been strong surging to more than USD12 per bushel lately, not far off their all-time high set back in 2008.
The company has proceeded with its plans to divest its Malaysian palm oil plantations and continues to plant palm oil on the land it has acquired in Indonesia. As of the most recent update, MP Evans had planted 14,500 hectares with palm. MP Evans’ total production of palm oil was 83,100 tonnes of fresh fruit bunches (ffb) in the first six months of this year, up slightly from the 76,700 produced in the same period of 2009.
We see continued strength in palm oil prices as likely longer term. Demand for agricultural products is on the rise thanks, in large part, to surging consumption in emerging markets like China where palm oil remains the most popular edible oil. Meanwhile global stocks of agricultural commodities are relatively low and palm oil is no exception. MP Evans, tracked by Elliott Gue in The Energy Strategist, is a buy up to GBp500.
Vale’s (NYSE: VALE) core metals and minerals production operations are in Brazil. But it’s rapidly expanding elsewhere, including a USD10 billion, five-year expansion program in Canada. The company’s overall investment plan for the next year is USD24 billion, financed entirely by cash, as it works to meet burgeoning demand for a wide range of resources.
Thus far, we’ve gained 218 percent with this stock since adding it in December 2008. Those who’ve held it that long may want to take some money off the table now. But this one looks like it’s headed a lot higher as output rises and demand for its output grows. Vale is a buy up to 30 for those who don’t already own it.
Xstrata (London: XTA, OTC: XSRAY) is basically flat from our entry point in April 2010. But it’s no less endowed with resource development potential than fellow giants BHP or Vale.
Nickel has become a near-term focus, with the company reopening a mine this year in anticipation of robust demand. The successful takeover of Sphere Minerals will further strengthen its position in the iron ore market, and the company has been active in Africa as well. It’s also won approval from Queensland regulators to expand output of a zinc mine in Australia by 30 percent from 2013 onward.
Mining projects must go ever-further, ever-deeper to be successful, and this company is well positioned as any. Buy Xstrata up to USD5. We’ll be covering the company in Silk Road Investor.
Red White and Blue
These are companies based inside the US that currently dominate their businesses. They’re also doing what needs to be done to dominate their industries going forward, adopting needed technologies, expanding into growing markets and maintaining financial and managerial strength. Our goal with these was basically to buy and hold as they build wealth, with the caveat that if that business case weakens we want to be out.
AES Corp (NYSE: AES) is a US-based company that’s partly owned by sovereign wealth fund China Investment Corp (CIC) and heavily invested around the world. The latest push is in India, where the company plans to spend USD15 billion in coming years.
Management has been able to maintain earnings targets in recent years despite weaker power prices, thanks to massive de-leveraging and repositioning over the past decade or so. Now all that looks set to pay off with double-digit earnings growth to mid-decade and beyond, even if developed world markets remain flat for power.
AES is tracked in Utility Forecaster and Personal Finance, both of which include AES Corp 6.75 Percent Preferred C (NYSE: AES C) as a long-term income investment. AES Corp is a buy up to USD15.
Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) is another old-line technology company that’s been able to ramp up growth thanks to links to China. Fourth-quarter fiscal 2010 earnings topped forecasts again and management further boosted its outlook, as spending in its key corporate market has at last been moving higher.
Our return since the August 2009 addition to the Portfolio is flat, and HP shares have generally moved with technology in general. We look for further gains ahead for Hewlett-Packard, and retain our advice of buy up to USD50. Note that this stock isn’t covered in any other publications at present.
Insituform (NSDQ: INSU) is at last starting to see signs of life in its core sewer rehabilitation business. But the real excitement at the company is a growing portfolio of services to the oil and mining industries, both of which have a critical need for inexpensive and efficient methods of pipeline repair.
Third-quarter earnings rose to a record, with revenue surging 18.7 percent. Our return in this stock is a solid 17 percent since its December 2008 addition to the Portfolio. But I’m looking for a lot more going forward, as companies that own pipelines are faced with rising maintenance. Buy Insituform, which is tracked in Utility Forecaster, up to 25.
Itron (NSDQ: ITRI) has also had quite a few ups and downs since we first recommended it in October 2008. But the company continues to move strongly ahead expanding its share of the burgeoning global smart meter market. The company’s win of several water company projects is a good sign that it’s finding markets in many areas. Third quarter 2010 earnings, revenue and cash flow all hit record levels and bookings were strong as well. I rate Itron a buy in Utility Forecaster up to 60.
Kinder Morgan Energy Partners LP (NYSE: KMP) is a favorite of several of our publications, including Utility Forecaster, The Energy Strategist and MLP Profits. The company has continued to do what it does best: add fee-generating assets around the industry that immediately boost cash flow and dividends. The big news around the company is a USD1.5 billion initial public offering for its ownership interest in its general partner, which should result in lower incentive distributions and more cash flow for limited partner unitholders. Buy Kinder Morgan Energy Partners LP up to USD72.
Ormat Technologies (NYSE: ORA) is doing what 99 percent of renewable energy companies never do: making money by producing electricity that would be competitive even without government mandates and subsidies.
The company operates plants and also builds them for other companies, giving it an added layer of expertise over rivals. The biggest challenge for the company is to find new projects and get them up and running, so it can start generating cash flows. That makes for lumpy quarterly reporting but a very clear path for robust earnings growth going forward. I track Ormat Technologies in Utility Forecaster; it’s a buy up to 28.
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