In all the years I have been providing investment advice, I have gotten a lot of requests for my best idea, or my Top 3. But I don’t think anyone has ever asked me for my 11th best idea. Most individual investors aren’t investing in dozens of companies, but right now in the Energy Strategist’s portfolios are 63 companies. That’s about to change. 

In fairness, we have spread these recommendations across three portfolios, and there are 20 Holds included. The idea of investment recommendations classified by risk (currently Aggressive, Conservative, and Growth) will remain, but over the next few weeks, I am changing the Holds to either Buys or Sells.  

There are always exceptions to rules. For example, a Hold may make sense if you own a master limited partnership (MLP) with a lot of depreciation. You will have to decide if the tax implications warrant selling in that type of situation. Or you may not want to sell a holding if your time horizon is a bit longer than average. But in the future, a “Buy” that goes above its limit will either see that target raised; the limit will remain – meaning it’s still a Buy on a pullback; – or it will be time to take profits by moving it to a Sell.

There are going to be more trailing stops used to protect against losses, particularly with the more aggressive recommendations. There is, of course, some risk in doing this, as stops often trigger just as the market bottoms. I saw this happen recently in a competing newsletter that made several Buy recommendations just before oil prices dipped back below $50/bbl. Three weeks later subscribers had been stopped out of most of their positions, rapidly locking in losses of 25% to 30% across the board. Thus, investors lost despite the fact that many of the recommended companies should perform well in the long run.

Today I am starting the process of trimming. Enbridge Inc (NYSE: ENB) recently bought out Conservative Portfolio holding Spectra Energy Corporation, so I am removing it from the portfolio. Investors who held from our initial advice through the merger enjoyed a 59.5% gain in less than a year and a half.

Chevron (NYSE: CVX) was moved to a Hold as the outlook for the oil sector worsened, and as the company’s free cash flow fell deeply into the red. The plunge in cash flow was primarily a result of some significant capital expenditures on megaprojects that are now mostly behind them. From 2015 to 2016 Chevron’s cash flow improved by nearly $10 billion, and almost broke even for the year despite the challenging environment. 

Chevron has outperformed ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) for the past one-, five-, and ten-year periods, as well as year-to-date (YTD). The company has returned 16% to investors over the past year and currently yields 4%. Consensus estimates on Chevron are “Outperform,” and I consider it to be one of the safest ways to play the energy sector for conservative investors. The company is presently trading at ~$108. Buy Chevron up to $115.

ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) is the world’s largest independent oil and gas producer, and another portfolio Hold that I am moving back into the Buy category at current prices. We first added ConocoPhillips to The Energy Strategist portfolios in February 2014, and by July 2014 we had notched a 33% gain. But the company was caught in the midst of a spending spree when the bottom fell out of the oil market, and by year-end 2014 shares were 20% off the peak. The company warranted the move to Hold a year ago, but ConocoPhillips may be finally turning the corner.

Free cash flow has increased for four straight quarters and has now reached levels last seen when oil prices were still at $100/bbl. The company is one that is likely to make money if oil prices settle in for a while in the $50-$60/bbl range and investors should accumulate shares at the current stock price. Buy ConocoPhillips up to $50.