A Gusher on Horizon

Eight-percent yields are nice and all, but what if I told you could lock in 4.3% from a company with no net debt and modest capital needs? What if I further told you could pick up this industry leader with pricing power and market share momentum in the early stages of a long-term upcycle?

That’s what top oil rig contractor Helmerich & Payne (HP) has to offer, and I want to get it into the Growth Portfolio before it reports quarterly earnings Thursday morning.

I’m not expecting an immediate asurge, but you never know when a proposition this attractive will strike a chord with the recently skeptical market.

Here’s what I wrote when recommending HP in The Energy Strategist on Feb. 2:

H&P is the market leader with 18% of contracted U.S. land rigs and more than half of the most efficient and advanced type that will be most in demand as drillers race to execute ambitious plans on the still relatively tight budgets. Despite dramatic revenue declines over the last two years, the company continued to live largely within cash flow while making sure that its rigs, many recently upgraded, would be ready to roll again quickly when the time came.

And here’s how I described HP’s technological advantage in Breakthrough Tech Profits last month:

Unlike the older direct-current models, the newer alternating current (AC) rigs permit greater drilling precision and finesse by feeding variable power levels to different functions. The rigs also get the job done as much as 30% faster. 

Drilling a horizontal shale well only takes about a month or so now, and a contracted rig represents well under 10% of the total well cost. But it’s a job that has to be completed before the more expensive resources can be deployed, and one that has to be done right to maximize the well’s ultimate output.

So it makes little sense for customers to skimp and slow themselves down with older, less advanced rigs, especially amid the current rush to step up oil production once again.

Which is why in the most recent fiscal year H&P earned some 30% more per deployed rig than the average for its four nearest competitors. H&P is by far the financially fittest land rig supplier, with more cash than debt and the largest available inventory of advanced equipment.

During the industry’s two worst years in a generation, Helmerich and Payne managed not to run up net debt and never reduced a dividend financed with cash from operations.

The share price is down modestly since. The stock has been consolidating in the $65-70 range for the last three months, ever since its launch from 62 to 83 in the month following the presidential election ended with a painful thud.

But while my expectations for a positive reaction from tomorrow’s results are modest, the long-term outlook for this shale resurgence play continues to brighten. I’m adding HP to the Growth portfolio with a buy limit of $77. HP reports the quarterly qualifying dividend it pays on form 1099.

Option traders might wish to pick up the June 16, 2017 $60 calls. Recently offered at $6.70, they would require an HP gain of just 1.5% over the next seven weeks for a buyer to break even.

Stock Talk

CD

CD

Hi Igor,
I’m watching HP go down this morning and wondering if it’s a good time to BUY?

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

I don’t expect a quick recovery necessarily but I do expect a lot of value eventually. They have a huge backlog of idle rigs and are still generating cash. Shale output is being supported by a backlog of drilled but uncompleted wells that’s getting worked down pretty quickly now. Soon, there will need to be more drilling to maintain shale output, and perhaps to meet global demand that shows no sign of slowdown in growth. HP is the far-and-away land rig leader with the best tech and continuing market share gains. This morning’s not pleasant for sure in light of yesterday’s write up, but I’ve not heard anything to change the long-tern story here. Might need $60-65 crude to play out though. We’ll get there.

pipeline

pipeline

Igor
Reading about plans for new proposed tax revisions , what do you think of the following statement??

“The Trump administration’s proposal to slash tax rates on so-called pass-through businesses would deliver a windfall to investors in master limited partnerships and could offer a much-needed lift to this niche segment of the energy market.”

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

My take is that investors are, for once, being perfectly sensible in keeping their enthusiasm for this potential tax windfall in check, seeing as it’s a Trump “tax plan outline” and all. He doesn’t have the votes for a huge deficit boost on the right much less the left, and anything passed with less than 60 in the Senate sunsets after a decade. I’ll believe it when I see it and I’ll be bigly surprised if MLP investors see this tax reduction. The burden of proof is on this administration and this Congress to prove they can find their way to the big-boy potty.

Guest

Guest

Bigly. Ha. Love it.

Samuel Weisgal

Samuel Weisgal

Dear Igor – followed your Call recommendation on HP, maybe I should have purchased a put.
Others are stating HP is overvalued, implied price should be around 36.07, closed below 50 ma, yada yada.
Would love your take following todays action.

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

I shared some initial thoughts here https://www.investingdaily.com/mlp-profits/alerts/31059/a-gusher-on-horizon/#comment-90945 last week and will have more later this morning when I post an update. It’s totally safe to ignore anyone who yammers about the 50-day and implied price to the nearest penny, though. Just noise and the usual snake oil.

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

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