3/29/10: Watch for Whipsaws
Whipsaw: a violent move in a stock’s price that forces weak hands to sell, and is later followed by a sharp rebound, often to new highs. That’s the unfortunate experience more than a few investors have had recently in high-yielding stocks, including Canadian trusts and corporations.
Atlantic Power Corp (TSX: ATP, OTC: ATLIF) is the single recommendation I’ve received the most queries from readers about. The owner of power-plant and power-line assets is still trading at nearly three times its late 2008 low and has returned more than 133 percent over the past 12 months.
Because of the complexity of its ownership arrangements,
This apparent steadiness, of course, has done little to calm investors. The volatility hasn’t approached what we saw in early December, when shares repeatedly rocketed between USD9 and nearly USD12 over a two-week period before heading well north of USD12. But the ratcheting around has still raised questions about
Unless you’re a skilled short seller, odds are you don’t want to live through another 2008-style crash. I certainly don’t. But two things here need to be pointed out.
First, the Canadian dollar has been on fire of late and was due for a pullback, which may be ongoing. That directly affects the volatility of these stocks, which are priced in Canadian dollars.
Second, at least in
It’s entirely possible that
But this is fundamentally an income stream, and any decision about whether to buy, hold or fold needs to be based on business results, not speculation on what share volatility means.
That goes for any other trust or corporation that has become more volatile lately. After all, these are companies that have just weathered the worst credit crunch/recession/bear market in 80 years. Moreover, as we’ve pointed out in MLM, the Canadian economy is starting to pick up steam. Investors’ anxiety about the
Volatility: One Explanation
In Utility Forecaster and MLP Profits, I’ve written several times recently about the potential for trailing stop-losses to trigger vicious whipsaws in individual stocks. That looks suspiciously like what’s happened to
Mainly, a lot of people with big profits in these stocks have placed trailing stop-losses. Stops are automatic orders to sell stocks when a particular price level is reached. Trailing stops continually raise the sell level the higher a particular stock goes.
In a calm market stops will rarely be executed unless there’s a major development. Moreover, they’ll normally be executed at or at least very close to the price they’re set. In other words, if you have a stop on Advantage Oil & Gas (TSX: AAV, NYSE: AAV) at USD6 and the share price goes down to that level, you’ll get out at USD6 or thereabouts.
But what about in a volatile, fear-drenched market like this one, with so many investors afraid of being left out but terrified of another 2008? In such a market, many more people are using what they think are risk reduction techniques, like stop-losses and trailing stops.
Suppose, for example, that investors representing 50,000 shares of Atlantic Power, roughly a seventh of Friday’s volume, were using a 10 percent trailing stop on
Again, there are a lot of reasons why stocks go up or down in the near term, and almost none of them have anything to do with dividend safety and dividend growth–which ultimately determine the value of any income stock. It’s never easy to ignore volatility. In fact, you shouldn’t. But unless that price volatility has something to do with your income stream, it’s never worth acting on.
Remember: We’re in this to build wealth by building positions in high-yielding stocks backed by healthy, growing companies–not to speculate on a few points of movement that will be forgotten in the wink of an eye.
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