Flash Alert: Implications of the Oil Spill

On Friday shares of Anadarko Petroleum Corp (NYSE: APC) touched our recommended stop at 63, handing us a small gain on the position.

The drop in Anadarko’s stock over the past few weeks has little to do with the company’s fundamentals. As I described in April 7, 2010, issue The Search for More Oil, Anadarko has a leading position in a series of promising deepwater oilfields off Africa’s west coast, a region with exciting prospects. Meanwhile, oil prices are near recent highs, supporting Anadarko’s ongoing shift in its production mix from US natural gas to deepwater oil.

But the stock has suffered of late because of Anadarko’s 25 percent stake in BP’s (NYSE: BP) Macondo well in the Gulf of Mexico–the well that recently blew out and is leaking oil into the Gulf. Anadarko was not the operator of this field but provided capital and held a stake in the play. BP is managing and paying for the immediate clean-up costs and has borne the brunt of the blame.

If we assume that Anadarko owes 25 percent of these expenses, insurance likely will cover a good deal of that liability. And even in a worst-case scenario the spill is unlikely to cost more than one-third of the roughly $12.50 taken out of Anadarko’s stock over the last five trading sessions.

This is a situation where outright panic has trumped reason and fundamentals. This unfortunate situation is an outstanding opportunity to buy Anadarko Petroleum Corp under 70 with a stop at 45.

It may strike some as crass to locate profitable opportunities in this disaster, but here’s my take on the names that could benefit.

The spill prompted President Obama to backtrack and delay his decision to open up more US waters for exploration. And the disaster will likely produce additional regulations that make it tougher and more expensive to drill in the deepwater Gulf.

There’s already been some disruption to maritime traffic in the area. These unfortunate circumstances add up to higher oil prices that will broadly boost oil-levered recommendations in The Energy Strategist.

Also note that three stocks that don’t appear in the model Portfolios likewise suffered because of their involvement with this well: Cameron International Corp (NYSE: CAM), Transocean (NYSE: RIG) and Halliburton (NYSE: HAL).

I regard Transocean’s troubles as broadly positive for Portfolio recommendation SeaDrill (NYSE: SDRL). Seadrill owns some of the same deepwater-capable rigs as Transocean; investors seeking an alternative to Transocean may shift money to SeaDrill, especially now that the company moved its listing from the Oslo Exchange to the New York Stock Exchange.

In addition, SeaDrill currently pays a dividend of USD0.55 per quarter, equivalent to an 8.5 percent yield. I expect the company to boost that dividend steadily in coming quarters, making it a magnet for income-oriented investors. I’m raising my buy target on SeaDrill to 29.

I’m also considering adding Cameron International and Halliburton to the Portfolios, especially the former. Although spill-related news will keep a lid on both stocks in the near term, both companies have leverage to solid long-term growth themes such as deepwater drilling activity. 

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