12/2/10: New Addition to Gushers and Wildcatters Portfolios

Through the end of the third quarter, Alliance Resource Partners LP (NSDQ: has covered its distributions by a lofty 1.9 times. This margin of safety is one reason that the LP’s units yield considerably less than Proven Reserves Portfolio holdings Penn Virginia Resource Partners and Natural Resource Partners LP (NYSE: NRP).

But investors should set their sights on the general partner, Alliance Holdings GP LP (NasdaqGS: AHGP). The GP owns the LP’s IDRs, so its cash flow is based on the distributions paid to the LP. As in the example I outlined previously, the GP’s take rises at a faster pace as the LP pays out higher distributions. This means that the GP’s distributions grow more rapidly than the LP’s payout; over the past year, the LP has boosted its distributions by about 8.5 percent, while the GP’s payout is up almost 13 percent.

The GP’s units yield less than the LP’s stock–about 4.3 percent, compared to 5.2 percent for the LP–but the faster distribution growth compensates for the slightly lower yield.

In this case, the GP owns a more than 40 percent stake in the LP, which may complicate any attempt by the LP to acquire the GP. But the MLP’s mining business is in fine shape, and the GP’s distributions should continue to grow at a double-digit rate in the coming year. In fact, given its high distribution coverage so far in 2010, distribution growth could accelerate in 2011. If there’s no deal between the LP and GP, the MLP is still on solid footing. If the two entities merge and eliminate the IDRs, expect the GP to command a substantial premium.

Alliance Holdings GP LP, a new addition to the Gushers Portfolio, is a buy up to 48.50. Because the stock is thinly traded, readers should use a limit order to avoid overpaying. Also note that Alliance Holdings GP is itself an MLP and reports distributions on a standard K-1 form.

Roughly 70 percent of Core Laboratories’ (NYSE: CLB) profit and revenue comes from international markets, which explains the company’s bias toward oil-centric projects. In fact, during a conference call to discuss third-quarter results, management noted that it will continue to expand internationally rather than add to its capacity to support US unconventional drilling.

The stock took a hit after the company reported third-quarter earnings that beat analysts’ expectations. Revenue that fell slightly short of Wall Street estimates and management’s conservative comments about the sustainability of US drilling activity appear to be the culprits behind the stock’s decline.

But Core Lab’s shares have turned in a strong performance this year, returning about 50 percent through Dec. 1; the post-earnings dip likely stems from traders taking profits off the table, not long-term concerns about the company’s business and fundamentals. The dip offers a great opportunity to buy the stock.

Core Laboratories, the latest addition to the Wildcatters Portfolio, is a buy under 95.

Read more…

Stock Talk

Add New Comments

You must be logged in to post to Stock Talk OR create an account