10/6/11: Focus on Fundamentals

Big-picture forces such as concerns about global economic growth and the ongoing EU sovereign credit crisis have driven equity markets in recent weeks. During the market rout in late September, the S&P 500’s 50 largest stocks by market cap exhibited a correlation rate of 90 percent. In other words, investors sold stocks indiscriminately.

But these bouts of panicked selling tend to be short-lived and present patient investors with myriad opportunities to build wealth over the long term.

The recent pullback in shares of Gushers Portfolio holding SeaDrill (NYSE: SDRL) and Wildcatters Portfolio holding Linn Energy LLC (NYSE: LLC) is a case in point.

A deepwater-focused contract driller, SeaDrill leases its fleet of rigs to producers for a daily fee. These day-rates fluctuate with supply and demand for rig, so contract drillers have some exposure to commodity prices.

SeaDrill boasts a fleet 19 deepwater and ultra-deepwater rigs. Five of these rigs are still under construction at shipyards in Asia, while the remaining 14 units operate under long-term contracts that guarantee favorable day-rates. Two of these contracts will expire in late 2012 and three additional fixtures will expire in 2013. Several of these contracts extend out to 2015-16.

These contracts represent a backlog of almost $8 billion worth of locked-in cash flows that support the company’s generous quarterly dividends.

Market conditions continue to favor contract drillers. Deepwater drilling projects in the Gulf of Mexico, West Africa and Brazil hinge on the price of Brent crude oil, a barrel of which continues to trade at more than $100 per barrel.

SeaDrill also owns the youngest fleet of deepwater rigs in the world, a major advantage in the current environment. The company’s high-specification rigs are in high demand among oil and natural gas producers, particularly in a post-Macondo world where advanced safety features are a necessity rather than an option.

Management indicated that the company had delayed signing contracts on two of its newly built ultra-deepwater rigs because it expected prices to creep higher later in 2011–a testament to the strength of this market segment.

I expect SeaDrill to grow its earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) at a roughly 10 percent annualized pace over the next few years, giving the company plenty of scope to increase its dividend.

Far too much has been made of SeaDrill’s relatively high debt levels. With 88 percent of its roughly $8 billion worth of debt maturing in 2014 or later, SeaDrills near-term refinancing needs are limited. Many of these loans are secured by liens on its rigs, ensuring a favorable interest rate on its borrowings. As of early September, the company tabbed its average debt cost at roughly 5 percent–well below the industry average of roughly 5.6 percent.

The amount of leverage didn’t burn companies in 2008; the need to roll over lines of credit and short-term financing in a weak credit market inflicted the most pain. With limited near-term refinancing needs, SeaDrill’s boasts a water-tight balance sheet.

Take advantage of the recent pull back and accumulate shares of SeaDrill. The stock’s recent swoon reflects concern that slow economic growth will weaken demand for energy commodities or that the EU sovereign-debt crisis will erupt into a 2008-style credit crunch. Buy SeaDrill under 38.

Unlike most publicly traded partnerships, Linn Energy LLC produces oil and natural gas.

Exposure to oil and natural-gas prices is part and parcel with energy production. But Linn Energy hedges much of its output to lock in prices and guarantee cash flow. The firm has hedged 100 percent of its natural gas production through 2015 and 100 percent of its oil production through 2013. Moreover, Linn Energy has hedged about 80 percent of its oil output in 2014 and 2015.

This strategy paid off during the credit crisis. The company suffered some anxious moments because of an overreliance on private-equity deals with hedge funds and short-term credit lines. But the banks never cut Linn Energy’s credit facility because of the company extensive hedge book. The firm also maintained its distribution throughout the credit crunch and Great Recession.

Management also learned its lesson. As credit markets improved in 2009 and 2010, Linn Energy began issuing bonds to finance future expansion. This allowed the company to replace short-term credit facilities that are subject to periodic redeterminations and variable interest rates with fixed-cost debt that matures five to 10 years in the future. Even if there were another 2008-style crunch, Linn Energy’s extensive hedging and long-term debt structure would protect the firm from catastrophe.

Linn Energy should be able to boost its dividend at an average annual of 7 percent over the next three years. Yielding more than 8 percent at current levels, Linn Energy LLC rates a buy under 40.

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