4/19/12: Telstra Talks

Management of AE Portfolio Conservative Holding Telstra Corp Ltd (ASX: TLS, OTC: TTRAF, ADR: TLSYY) announced its plan for the estimated AUD11 billion it will receive to transfer its copper-wire network and the customers who currently use it to Australia’s National Broadband Network (NBN).

Rather than announce a specific action, management instead detailed a “capital management strategy” focused on maximizing shareholder returns through both dividends and capital growth, maintaining financial strength and retaining financial flexibility.

The market had hotly anticipated a share buyback in recent weeks, though some held out hope for a special dividend or a payout increase. But, as I noted in a Feb. 28, 2012, AE Weekly, management’s clearly stated preference has been preserving balance-sheet strength and financial flexibility as it continues to invest in its wireless network and adds customers and services.

And this will remain the priority.

The market has reacted positively to Telstra’s announcement, sending the shares up about 0.7 percent by midday in Sydney.

In practice, Telstra aims for a balance sheet worthy of a single-A credit rating. The longer-term objective remains to grow dividends–and to make sure these dividends are fully franked for its broad Australian shareholder base. Management has declared its intention to pay AUD0.28 per share per year for fiscal 2012 and fiscal 2013.

Management is working with the following guidelines: a debt servicing ratio between 1.5 and 1.9 times; “gearing,” or net debt-to-capital ratio, between 50 percent and 70 percent; and an interest cover of greater than seven times.

As of Dec. 31, 2011, Telstra is at the lower end of these ranges, though management expects modest increases over the next 18 months as it funds its share of 50 percent owned FOXTEL’s acquisition of rival cable TV company Austar United Communications Ltd (ASX: AUN) and spectrum payments due in late 2013.

Payments from the NBN transaction are expected to help offset a reduction in free cash flow Telstra will suffer as it gives up its fixed-line business. But the timing of the NBN payments will result in “excess free cash flow” of AUD2 billion to AUD3 billion over the next three years and an “excess capital position” of AUD500 million to AUD1 billion by the end of fiscal 2012.

Management stated in its presentation today a “preference for returning capital to shareholders is via growth in franked dividends.” As things stand, however, Telstra doesn’t expect to have the franking capacity to increase the dividend before 2014.

(Australia-based companies accumulate “franking credits” as they pay tax to the Australian Tax Office [ATO].  A specific company’s “franking account” is only a record of what was paid; it doesn’t contain actual money. The company’s ability to frank its dividend will depend on the balance of this franking account. If the franking credit contains a surplus, the company may declare a fully franked–or 100 percent franked–dividend. If the franking account isn’t large enough, perhaps because it pays tax overseas, then the company may declare a partially franked dividend.)

Management determined as well that a share buyback at this time would not be “efficient.”

Although this announcement didn’t pack the immediate gratification many shareholders were hoping for, it does set the stage for Telstra to further cement its dominance in Australian telecommunications. The NBN will also play a part in growing two of Telstra’s growth portfolios, primarily its Network Applications and Services (NAS) segment, where the company’s “cloud” initiatives take shape, and its media businesses, including the combined FOXTEL-Austar.

In the first half of fiscal 2012 (ended 12/31/11) Telstra realized AUD579 million in revenue from “strategic growth driver” NAS, 19.4 percent above the prior corresponding period. Offerings within Telstra’s NAS segment include cloud computing, unified communications and intelligent networks, which allow numerous services to be offered across its networks. Managed network services revenue grew by 24 percent, or AUD75 million, to AUD387 million, on strong video conferencing demand. The March 2011 acquistion of iVision drove this growth; it contributed AUD34 million to revenue.

Some analysts have forecast Telstra will be able to generate AUD2 billion in revenue from NAS within five years; it’s already on a better than AUD1 billion annualized pace. Last June CEO David Thodey unveiled an AUD800 million spending plan to build out Telstra’s cloud capabilities even further, the first major step of which is construction of a 2,000 square meter data center in Melbourne that will come on line in 2013. The center will boost Telstra’s data capacity by about 40 percent.

The company inked new deals with AE Portfolio Aggressive Holding Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG, OTC: OGFGF, ADR: OGFGY) and South Australia Health, a government agency, during the period. The new contracts were significant contributors, as was rising business demand for video conferencing and managed data networks. As of early February Mr. Thodey saw about AUD1 billion in potential contracted services available in the market, business for which Telstra will be very competitive.

Right now Telstra is a wireless company: Domestic Mobile delivered revenue growth of 10.9 percent in the half of 2012 to $4.4 billion. But NAS was its fastest-growing segment, and the company is making it a priority.

Management didn’t rule any ideas out over the last several months while it considered its options. A dividend increase, which would have been the company’s first since 2004, never seemed likely, while even a one-time buyback or special payout to shareholders didn’t really square with management’s priority of winning market share based on its leading technology and infrastructure position.

As I wrote in February, “We like Telstra because of its dominant position, its attention to weak spots such as customer service and proven ability to fix same, and the prudence management has shown in focusing on preserving that which makes it a compelling long-term wealth-building story: its scale advantage. A robust network will keep Telstra’s wireless subscriber rolls growing and its data revenue share expanding.”

We will have to wait for a dividend increase. But, with the NBN agreements finalized, Telstra is in great position to grow.

Telstra is a buy on the home Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) and the US over-the-counter (OTC) market using the symbol TTRAF up to our increased target of USD3.50, where it would still yield 8 percent.

If you buy Telstra’s US OTC-traded American Depositary Receipt (ADR) trading under the symbol TLSYY, which represents five ASX-listed shares, don’t pay more than USD17.50.

Stock Talk

Guest One

Glenn Piserchia

Is there any advantage to buying Telstra on the OTC (U.S.) , or the OTC (ADR) ? Am not familiar with the differences of each way. Could you explain for me?

David Dittman

David Dittman

Hi Mr. Piserchia,

Thanks for reading, and thanks for your question, a good one.

Buying the ADR is just like buying a US security; it will be the easiest way for your broker to execute the transaction for you. You won’t have additional commissions, though the custodian of the ADR will extract a small fee for handling currency translation, etc. Buying the OTC-listed F share may mean an additional fee for buying a foreign-listed stock, and you are essentially transacting in the local currency as opposed to US dollars.

At the end of the day, holding the ADR entitles you to the same benefits of ownership. It is a perfectly suitable way to invest if you don’t want to trade directly on the Australian Securities Exchange.

Thanks again for writing.

Best regards,

David

Guest One

Leonard Wolf

For Roger Conrad:
I purchased Telestra at your recommended price, saw the volume and price increasing significantly over the past few months and continued to buy based on the significant volume without any significant news other than what telestra would like to accomplish in the future. I saw no analysis from you other than a protracted dearth of follow up meaningful reports and since I have relied on Aussie Edge to help me fill in the blanks I wrongfully assumed like the “Kings Clothes” that the heavy volume up meant those buying knew something I did not know and I continued to buy especially since (Schwab gave telestra and A rating, rare in Schwab’s stable). This past week and today the volume and past week’s price have come way back down rapidly for the small
stock…was this due to merely an unannounced Sept. dividend for stockholders of record and then dumped.
As I am dependent upon at least monthly comments on a great stock you listed and when the volatility for an A rated small stock has no explanation for it’s volatility don’t you believe your subscribers who bought the Service not only feel a let down and in my case more so for making my poor judgment in a vacuum? Can you explain the high volume on the up-side and in less than a two weeks high volume on the
down side without a shred of news coverage (either media or Aussie Edge that would augur a basis for the current up or down of a significant Australian company. Thank you for your Help. Leonard Wolf

David Dittman

David Dittman

Dear Mr. Wolf,

Although it has come down sharply in the aftermath of its FY 2012 earnings report–which I discuss in The Roundup section of Friday’s Down Under Digest, available here–Telstra Corp Ltd (ASX: TLS, OTC: TTRAF, ADR: TLSYY) still trades well above our recommended buy-under price of USD3.50.

The recent steep decline from above USD4.30 (AUD4.07 on the Australian Securities Exchange)–and we’re generally loathe to interpret broader investor intent amid myriad potential motivators–is perhaps a function of disappointment that the company did not announce a dividend increase or a share-buyback program, despite the fact that management has said in all recent official communications with the market that it wouldn’t pursue such “capital management” before FY 2014, as well as the fact that, despite the fact that earnings grew and mobile continued to be particularly strong “the market” had higher expectations for full-year net income.

Rather than boost its payout or buy back shares Telstra management will continue to push its strong network advantage by investing in equipment and technology upgrades. These factors actually helped it grow its overall mobile subscribers during FY 2012 at the expense of Australia’s No. 3 mobile provider, which has experienced significant network outages in recent months.

Investors have piled into Telstra in recent months because of the perceived safety of its still-ample dividend, chasing its 7 percent-plus yield in the hope of a dividend increase or share buyback that was never going to happen, facts which we’ve reported in several previous writeups on the company in the in the apr. 19, 2012, Alert to which you’ve responded as well as in Down Under Digest, including the Apr. 20 edition:

Rather than announce a specific action, management instead detailed a “capital management strategy” focused on maximizing shareholder returns through both dividends and capital growth, maintaining financial strength and retaining financial flexibility.

The market had hotly anticipated a share buyback in recent weeks, though some held out hope for a special dividend or a payout increase. But, as I noted in a Feb. 28, 2012, Down Under Digest, management’s clearly stated preference has been preserving balance-sheet strength and financial flexibility as it continues to invest in its wireless network and adds customers and services.

And this will remain the priority.

We’re sorry you chased the stock, but our position based on the latest relevant information was best expressed through our buy-under target as well as the fact the company hadn’t released results until Aug. 9. We’re actually quite pleased with results, including the ample free cash flow the company continues to generate, its management of same, and its commitment to preserving a strong balance sheet and investing in its key competitive advantage, its network, at the same time it pursues growth opportunities in areas such as cloud computing through small equity investments.

The dividend is safe, and the company continues to grow. We continue to like it as one of the best growth-plus-income stories on the planet–up to, of course, our buy-under target, which remains USD3.50.

Best regards,

David

Guest One

Leonard Wolf

Thank you….your response was most prompt and very informative. Leonard Wolf

David Dittman

David Dittman

Thank you, Mr. Wolf, for your question and for reading AE. Glad to be helpful. Best, David

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