Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund (TSX: CHE, OTC: CGIFF) posted full-year 2012 distributable cash flow (DCF) after maintenance capital expenditures of CAD2.07 per unit. That was a 3 percent boost over last year’s tally, with a very conservative coverage ratio of 1.725 to 1.

Fourth-quarter DCF of 33 cents per unit covered the monthly payout of 10 cents Canadian by a 1.1-to-1 margin, and was 13.8 percent higher than a year ago. Both periods included what management called “higher than normal spending on capital projects.”

Improved performance at the sulfur products division and lower costs were the keys to improved cash flow. The latter were in part due to successful integration of the Marsulex assets, which improved scale and product reach.

Looking ahead, the company expects “stable” demand for its products and services relative to 2012 levels. With regard to the dividend, however, management remains noncommittal about the potential for increases, stating only that it believes the board will continue to allow it to pay out at the current rate.

Consequently, I’m not raising my buy target above the current level of USD16 at this time.

Chemtrade has no maturing debt until 2017, and the business mix is generating plenty of free cash flow after dividends to pay off the CAD323 million that will come due then. But given the volatility of the sulfur products business, new money should wait for a higher yield before committing.

The other Canadian Edge Portfolio holding to report this week is Dundee REIT (TSX: D-U, OTC: DRETF), for which the news is even more bullish. The real estate investment trust (REIT), which specializes in office properties, raised its annualized distribution by 4 cents per unit. That’s a modest 1.8 percent bump from the prior monthly disbursement. But more important, it’s the first increase in the REIT’s history, and a sign of more to come.

Full-year funds from operations (FFO) per unit were up 6.3 percent, fueled by 2.6 percent growth in net operating income excluding acquisitions. Occupancy at Dundee’s office property portfolio was solid at 95.1 percent and poised for rent growth, with average in-place leases 12 percent below estimated market. By contrast, the average occupancy rate for office properties in Canada is 91.5 percent.

Dundee’s payout ratio based on FFO came in at 80.9 percent during the fourth quarter. It was 78.3 percent for the full-year using FFO, and 91.2 percent of adjusted funds from operations, which attempts to factor out certain items.

The REIT’s portfolio is now 45 percent larger than it was a year ago, thanks to a series of successful acquisitions, particularly the Whiterock REIT deal. During the fourth quarter, Dundee acquired nine Edmonton suburban properties for CAD75.8 million and bought out its partner in the State Street Financial Centre in downtown Toronto. And it also successfully spun off its industrial properties into a separately traded REIT, which generated a solid return.

The balance sheet is strong, with debt-to-gross book value now just 48 percent, down from 50.5 percent at the end of September. The average effective interest rate is just 4.33 percent, and interest coverage in the quarter came in at a solid 2.7 to 1. That’s the picture of stability and a good reason for us to raise the buy target on Canada’s premier office REIT to USD38, for those who don’t already own it.

Hard Data

At the bottom of this alert, I list when the rest of the Canadian Edge Portfolio holdings will report results, as well as where to find my analysis of what’s already been released.

It’s axiomatic that until companies announce numbers, you can’t jump to conclusions about how they’re holding up as businesses. That, however, hasn’t prevented a surge of volatility based on what amounts to rank speculation about what they may or may not say.

Front and center here is Atlantic Power Corp (TSX: ATP, NYSE: AT), which announces its results on Feb. 28. Given the drop in the stock over the past week to a new 52-week low, it seems many investors are taking a dividend cut next week as a given. That’s certainly possible, but it’s far from certain or even likely, based on what we currently know.

To review, when the company announced third-quarter 2012 earnings in November, management warned that it no longer expected to re-contract three gas-fired Florida power plants when existing deals expire in July and December 2013. It also implied that maintaining the current distribution would require finding new projects to replace the lost cash flow.

Since then, Atlantic sold the three plants for $111 million in net cash proceeds, after paying off all project-level debt and other obligations. Management also stated that it will use the cash to pay off debt when the deal closes, which will significantly reduce costs as well as strengthen the balance sheet. And Dominion Bond Rating Service has since noted the action is positive for credit quality.

What Atlantic did not do was give any indication that the selling price affected prior earnings guidance. Rather, the catalyst for this week’s selling appears to be an opinion issued by a single analyst that the company “may” cut its dividend by “at least” 30 percent.

To be sure, Atlantic could indeed come out with bad news for us next week, or later in 2013 if its plans come undone. But it’s also worth noting that as the stock has dropped, there’s been a slight increase in institutional ownership. That means the decline is mainly due to selling by individuals, particularly in the US, many of whom are almost certainly just reacting to selling momentum.

At a current yield of nearly 11 percent, Atlantic is clearly pricing in a lot of bad news that hasn’t happened yet. That’s a very low bar of expectations, and until there’s hard evidence the company’s business plan is coming apart, I plan to stick around. In fact, the stock remains a buy up to USD14 for those who don’t already own it.

The same goes for other high-yielding Portfolio stocks that have taken hits this week on speculation of bad things ahead despite a lack of real developments. For example, the only news on Just Energy Group (TSX: JE, NYSE: JE) since I profiled the company in the February issue is its announcement that it intends to buy back up to 10 million of its shares.

Management also stated it has stress tested the lower dividend under many different scenarios and is “confident” it’s sustainable. Granted, credibility is low after the recent dividend cut. But recent selling is purely due to speculation of what might happen, rather than what is actually happening. As long as that’s the case, I’ll continue holding Just Energy.

PetroBakken Energy (TSX: PBN, OTC: PBKEF) has also taken a big hit recently, reflecting speculation that a dividend cut is nigh. But again, the only hard news on the company has been positive.

Yesterday, management announced it replaced 229 percent of 2012 production with new reserves at a cost of CAD11.91 per barrel of oil equivalent (BOE) in 2012. Proved plus probable reserves grew 10 percent and the overall weighting was 82 percent liquids, while the ratio of proved developed reserves rose to 39 percent of total reserves.

January production came in at 49,700 BOE per day, in line with projections and ahead of the 47,192 BOE recorded a year ago. And management repeated its forecast that CAD675 million of planned capital expenditures would deliver year-over-year production growth of 8 percent to 12 percent.

Most encouraging, PetroBakken stated its light oil production was selling at a differential of 7 percent less than benchmark West Texas Intermediate Crude (WTI). That’s still higher than in years past, but far better than the 25 percent to 35 percent differential for heavy crude produced by its competitors. And it also means the company is doing better than its internal forecast for 2013 of a realized price at a 10 percent differential to WTI of $90 a barrel.

Despite the obvious positives in this report, at least some Bay Street analysts apparently still expect a dividend cut will be necessary to address the company’s debt load. But it’s worth nothing that even the lowest 12-month estimate from the 22 research houses covering the stock is more than 15 percent above the current share price. That’s a good reason to keep holding PetroBakken as we wait for the company to announce fourth-quarter results next month.

Finally, Colabor Group (TSX: GCL, OTC: COLFF) isn’t expected to release its earnings until March 22. But the company did announce a major acquisition that should immediately boost distributable cash flow and bolster the balance sheet. And it’s financed on favorable terms, courtesy of Quebec’s leading pension fund.

With the company reporting that fourth-quarter results will be “slightly above” last year’s numbers, the dividend suddenly looks a good bit safer. As a result, I’m upgrading Colabor from a “Hold” to a buy up to USD8.

Here’s when to expect the next batch of earnings for Portfolio Holdings. Links will take you to analysis of numbers for those companies that have already reported.

Aggressive Holdings

• AltaGas Ltd (TSX: ALA, OTC: ATGFF)–Feb. 28 (confirmed)
• Artis REIT (TSX: AX-U, OTC: ARESF)–Feb. 28 (confirmed)
• Atlantic Power Corp (TSX: ATP, NYSE: AT)–Feb. 28 (confirmed)
• Bird Construction Inc (TSX: BDT, OTC: BIRDF)–March 7 (estimate)
• Brookfield Real Estate Services Inc (TSX: BRE, OTC: BREUF)–March 12 (estimate)
• Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners LP (TSX: BEP-U, OTC: BRPFF)–February Portfolio Update
• Canadian Apartment Properties REIT (TSX: CAR, OTC: CDPYF)–Feb. 26 (confirmed)
• Cineplex Inc (TSX: CGX, OTC: CPXGF)–February Portfolio Update
• Davis + Henderson Income Corp (TSX: DH, OTC: DHIFF)–Feb. 26 (confirmed)
• Dundee REIT (TSX: D-U, OTC: DRETF)–Feb. 22 Flash Alert
• EnerCare Inc (TSX: ECI, OTC: CSUWF)–Feb. 28 (confirmed)
• Innergex Renewable Energy Inc (TSX: INE, OTC: INGXF)–March 14 (confirmed)
• Keyera Corp (TSX: KEY, OTC: KEYUF)–Feb. 15 Flash Alert
• Northern Property REIT (TSX: NPR, OTC: NPRUF)–March 13 (confirmed)
• Pembina Pipeline Corp (TSX: PPL, NYSE: PBA)–March 1 (confirmed)
• RioCan REIT (TSX: REI, OTC: RIOCF)–Feb. 15 Flash Alert
• Shaw Communications Inc (TSX: SJR/A. NYSE: SJR)–February Portfolio Update
• Student Transportation Inc (TSX: STB, NSDQ: STB)–Feb. 13 Flash Alert
• TransForce Inc (TSX: TFI, OTC: TFIFF)–March 1 (confirmed)

Aggressive Holdings

• Acadian Timber Corp (TSX: ADN OTC: ACAZF)–Feb. 13 Flash Alert
• Ag Growth International Inc (TSX: AFN, OTC: AGGZF)–March 14 (confirmed)
• ARC Resources Ltd (TSX: ARX, OTC: AETUF)–February In Focus
• Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund (TSX: CHE-U, OTC: CGIFF)–Feb. 22 Flash Alert
• Colabor Group Inc (TSX: GCL, OTC: COLFF)–March 22 (estimate)
• Crescent Point Energy Corp (TSX: CPG, OTC: CSCTF)–March 15 (estimate)
• Extendicare Inc (TSX: EXE, OTC: EXETF)–Feb. 27 (confirmed)
• IBI Group Inc (TSX: IBG, OTC: IBIBF)–March 26 (estimate)
• Just Energy Group Inc (TSX: JE, NYSE: JE)–February Best Buy
• Newalta Corp (TSX: NAL, OTC: NWLTF)–Feb. 15 Flash Alert
• Noranda Income Fund (TSX: NIF-U, OTC: NNDIF)–Feb. 13 Flash Alert
• Parkland Fuel Corp (TSX: PKI, OTC: PKIUF)–Feb. 26 (confirmed)
• PetroBakken Energy Ltd (TSX: PBN, OTC: PBKEF)–March 7 (estimate)
• Peyto Exploration & Development Corp (TSX: PEY, OTC: PEYUF)–March 7 (estimate)
• Vermilion Energy Inc (TSX: VET, OTC: VEMTF)–March 4 (confirmed)
• Wajax Corp (TSX: WJX, OTC: WJXFF)–March 6 (estimate)