ID Analysts

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And so, we remain committed to our gold positions. We still rate the Barrick Gold April 48 call (ABX + DR) a buy at current levels; The Agnico-Eagle Mines January 65 call (AEM + AM) is rated a hold due to the short time remaining till expiration. We also rate a hold our American Express January 36 put option (ABZ + MD) and the Travelers January 40 put (TRV + MH).   The shares of Transocean have been acting better, as oil has also been stronger on more economic optimism. Our Transocean January 95 call option (RIG + AS), which is out of the money and only three weeks from expiration, is also rated hold, but we would not write it off just yet. Hold.   The shares of Gabriel Resources (GBU.TO, GBRFF), our non-leveraged gold-related play, are also rated buy.   From everyone at the Leeb organization, we’d like to wish you a Happy and Prosperous New Year.   Next regularly scheduled issue, Tuesday, January 5, 2010.   RESULTS SINCE AGGRESSIVE TRADER’S INCEPTION Read More

Little has changed to alter our view since last week’s update. Stocks are enjoying a bit of a Santa rally in this holiday-shortened trading week. This seasonal strength should limit the downside risk. Read More

Among our positions, yesterday we closed out the Amylin Pharmaceuticals January 12.50 call option (AQM + AV) for a20 percent gain. The stock had moved up sharply in recent trading in the absence of any real news. With the option having climbed fairly deeply into the money and with only a few weeks left until expiration, taking the gain was the prudent course of action.   We also closed out our short sale of Williams Sonoma (WSM). Though still pricey, the stock wasn’t acting all that badly and we were concerned with a year-end pop in the shares.   The Whirlpool December 55 put (WHR + XK) expired worthless last Friday.   Crude oil has rebounded to the mid $70s a barrel on the strength of overseas markets and concerns growth here in the U.S. will sop up excess inventories. We’re not entirely out of it with our Transocean January 95 call option (RIG + AS), which is out of the money and only a month from expiration, butodds aren’t in our favor either. Hold.   Read More

The rally in the U.S. dollar is back in force today, with the Dollar Index climbing to its highest level since early October. Given how far it has fallen since March, a rally up to its 50-day average—about 2 percent from here—is certainly a possibility. Read More

We’re only holding one energy trade at this time, the Transocean January 95 call option (RIG + AS). With only a month or so to go until expiration, this out-of-the-money call is rated a hold.   Gold has traded down to its 50-day moving average, which should offer modest support. The correction, we believe, is technically driven and could continue for a while longer. But it should be rather shallow in terms of the decline. We’re getting beat up on our Barrick Gold April 48 call (ABX + DR) and Agnico-Eagle Mines January 65 call (AEM + AM), but we remain bullish on both positions. Also rated abuy is Gabriel Resources (GBU.TO, GBRFF). Reiterating what we said last week, the outcome of the Romania election will put pressure on the government to allow Gabriel’s mining project to move forward. This is a long-term term position which we expect will rise considerably in the coming year or two.   Read More

Massive accumulation of gold by the biggest bullion-backed exchange-traded fund has been driven by a sinking US dollar and concern that the USD12 trillion of government stimulus unleashed to combat the global recession will result in out-of-control inflation. Read More

Markets around the globe are under pressure today. Dubai World is once again the news behind the selling as the conglomerate enters talks with its primary creditors to renegotiate its debt payments ahead of its Nakheel subsidiary likely default next week. That could pose a problem for European banks that have outstanding loans in the emirate. Read More

The Barrick Gold April 48 call option (ABX + DR) and the Agnico-Eagle Mines January 65 call option (AEM + AM) are a both a buy here. So, too, is our equity position in Gabriel Resources (GBU.TO, GBRFF). The election results in Romania were extremely close with the sitting President, Traian Basescu, winning a second term. With the EU and IMF breathing down its neck, the government will be under intense pressure to reform the Romanian economy, which should help Gabriel move forward with its mining project.   Crude oil’s weakness has been no help for Transocean January 95 call option (RIG + AS). We’re not ready to give up on the position, but we’re downgrading it to a hold this week.   Our Amylin January 12.50 call option (AQM + AV) is a hold. The stock has a lot going for it, and should rise sharply on FDA approval for a long acting release formula of its diabetes drug Byetta, which could come shortly.   Retail sales data coming in are showing an improvement over last year’s dismal results, but they still leave a lot to be desired. American Express (AXP) has surrendered several points with investors reassessing the stock’s recent run. Continue to hold your American Express January 36 put option (ABZ + MD).   Read More