The Canadian political situation is relatively stable at this point, in marked contrast to conditions beyond its southern border, but that’s not to say nothing’s happening.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s standing with the Canadian electorate has fluctuated in the aftermath of the May 2011 federal election that gave his Conservative Party a parliamentary majority, particularly during last spring’s initial battles over Canada’s fiscal 2013 federal budget.

But instability at the top of the two major left-leaning opposition parties, the New Democratic Party and the Liberal Party, has left Mr. Harper with no significant challengers, and the Conservatives’ natural constituency has come back home in recent months to bolster the prime minister’s approval ratings.

Mr. Harper has now led the Conservative Party to three parliamentary victories, the last securing his long-sough majority and ensuring his power until October 2015. He’s been Canada’s prime minister since January 2006, and two venerable Canadian newspapers, the Toronto Star in an editorial and the centrist Toronto Globe and Mail in an opinion piece, this week suggested American conservatives would do well to follow his model for building electoral support.

The prime minister has never earned the type of personal popular adulation that provided at least some of the impetus for President Obama’s re-election. But he has demonstrated a remarkable practicality that allowed him to support Keynesian-style stimulus to offset the worst effects of the 2008-09 Great Recession.

And he’s also stood fast against elements of his party that decry the influx of immigrants into Canada. In fact Conservatives did well among middle-class immigrant voters in suburban “ridings” around Toronto and Vancouver that proved crucial to their 2011 victory.

More generally, according to the Toronto Star, Mr. Harper “has kept the wilder social conservatives in his caucus on a short leash, minimizing fractious debates on such hot-button issues as the death penalty, gay rights and abortion.”

Mr. Harper faces a thorny thicket in coming weeks as his government takes up consideration–or re-consideration, in the case of Malaysian state-owned oil and gas company Petroliam Nasional Berhad’s CAD5.17 billion bid for Progress Energy Resources Corp (TSX: PRQ, OTC: PRQNF)–of two potential foreign takeovers of Canadian energy companies.

Initial rejection of the Petronas-Progress tie-up may have had more to do with the Harper government’s desire for more time to establish a more coherent framework for evaluating all foreign takeover bids going forward rather than any substantive objection.

But recent polls suggest Canadians have concerns about Chinese state-owned enterprise CNOOC Ltd’s (Hong Kong: 883, NYSE: CEO) CAD15.1 billion bid for Nexen Inc (TSX: NXY, NYSE: NXY). A September pool by Ottawa-based Abacus Data found that more than two-thirds of Canadians wanted the federal government to block the deal In October Angus Reid Public Opinion found that 58 percent of respondents to an online survey opposed it.

Angus Reid also found that 47 percent of Canadians believe state-owned enterprises shouldn’t be allowed to control resources on Canadian soil.

During a news conference amid his recent visit to India Mr. Harper indicated that Canada will make decisions very soon on these foreign investment proposals as well as on the longer-term framework for dealing with such investment.

“The government of Canada has some very important decisions before it on when it will take public positions in the very near future along with positions on some of the broader policy questions,” Mr. Harper said.

The government gave Petronas until Nov. 18 to put together a revised proposal when it originally rejected the deal in October and has delayed a decision on CNOOC until Dec. 10.

According to one report the first Petronas has little to do with “net benefits” to Canada, the operative standard at the moment, and everything to do with Ottawa finalizing its policy on foreign takeovers, particularly those by state-owned enterprises.

It stands to reason that Canada’s pro-energy, pro-business prime minister will eventually approve both the Petronas-Progress and the CNOOC-Nexen deals under revised guidelines that establish a two-tiered system, one for foreign state-owned enterprises and another for foreign non-state controlled entities.

Above all Mr. Harper is practical, and the inbound investment is important for the long-term development of Canada’s energy patch. And he’s demonstrated a willingness to flout the public, even those who are on his side.

Bay Street Beat

Here, in summary form, is Bay Street’s reaction to recent earnings announcements by Canadian Edge Portfolio Holdings.

Conservative Holdings

AltaGas Ltd (TSX: ALA, OTC: ATGFF) has six “buys,” one “hold” and two “sells” from Bay Street analysts, the same line it held before it posted third-quarter earnings on Nov. 2. The average 12-month target price from eight of the nine analysts that cover the stock is CAD35.13, with a high of CAD40 and a low of CAD28.

Artis REIT (TSX: AX-U, OTC: ARESF) has six “buys,” three “holds” and zero “sells.” The average 12-month target price from eight of the nine analysts that cover the stock is CAD17.84, with a high of CAD18.50 and a low of CAD17. There have been no ratings changes following the REIT’s third-quarter earnings announcement.

Atlantic Power Corp (TSX: ATP, NYSE: AT) now has zero “buys”, two “holds” and five “sells.” The average 12-month target price from five of the seven analysts that cover the stock is CAD13.49, with a high of CAD16 and a low of CAD12.

Desjardins Securities downgraded the stock to “hold” from “buy” and reduced its price target from CAD17.50 to CAD16 after Atlantic Power announced third-quarter results.

National Bank Financial downgraded the stock from “sector perform” with a 12-month target of CAD14.50 to “underperform” with a target of CAD13.50.

Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners LP (TSX: BEP-U, OTC: BRPFF) has five “buys,” six “holds” and zero “sells,” with no changes after third-quarter earnings. The average 12-month price target compiled from six of the 11 analysts that cover the stock is CAD31.67, with a high of CAD34 and a low of CAD29.

Canadian Apartment Properties REIT (TSX: CAR-U, OTC: CDPYF) has six “buys,” five “holds” and zero “sells,” with no changes after third-quarter earnings.

Ten of the 11 analysts who cover the stock provide a 12-month price target, with a high of CAD28.50, a low of CAD25 and an average of CAD26.35.

Cineplex Inc (TSX: CGX, OTC: CPXGF) surged 2.4 percent on the Toronto Stock Exchange on Nov. 8, the day it announced third-quarter earnings. The stock has four “buys,” nine “holds” and zero “sells,” with no changes after third-quarter earnings.

Nine of the 13 analysts who cover Cineplex provide a 12-month price target. The average among these nine is CAD29.83, the low figure CAD27, the high CAD34.

Davis + Henderson Income Corp (TSX: DH, OTC: DHIFF) has three “buys,” five “holds” and zero sells,” with no changes after third-quarter earnings. Among the seven analysts that provide a 12-month price target the average is CAD22.32. The low forecast is CAD21.25, the high CAD23.50.

Dundee REIT (TSX: D-U, OTC: DRETF) has five “buys,” two “holds” and zero “sells,” with no changes after third-quarter earnings. Five analysts give Dundee an average 12-month price target of CAD41.25, with a low of CAD39 and a high of CAD44.

EnerCare Inc (TSX: ECI, OTC: CSUWF) has four “buys,” two “holds” and zero “sells.” There have been no changes after the company’s third-quarter earnings announcement. The average 12-month price target among the five analysts who provide a figure is CAD10.70, with a high of CAD11.50 and a low of CAD9.50.

Innergex Renewable Energy Inc (TSX: INE, OTC: INGXF) has four “buys,” eight “holds” and one “sell,” with no changes in the aftermath of third-quarter earnings. The average 12-month target price is CAD11.41, with a high of CAD12 and a low of CAD11.

Just Energy Group Inc (TSX: JE, NYSE: JE) has two “buys,” five “holds” and zero “sells,” with no changes after third-quarter earnings. The average 12-month price target is CAD12.95, with a high of CAD14.75 and a low of CAD11.50.

Just Energy boasts a 28.6 percent return potential, not including dividends, based on its Thursday, Nov. 8 closing price and the average 12-month target.

Keyera Corp (TSX: KEY, OTC: KEYUF) has six “buys,” two “holds” and one “sell,” with no changes after third-quarter earnings. The average 12-month target price is CAD51.94.

Northern Property REIT (TSX: NPR-U, OTC: NPRUF) has three “buys,” six “holds” and one “sell,” with no changes in the immediate aftermath of third-quarter earnings. The average 12-month target price among the eight analysts that provide a figure is CAD34.12.

Pembina Pipeline Corp (TSX: PPL, NYSE: PBA) has six “buys,” five “holds” and one “sell.” The consistent outlier EVA Dimensions downgraded the stock from “hold” to “underweight.” EVA doesn’t provide 12-month price forecasts with its recommendations. The average 12-month price target among the 11 analysts who provide a forecast is CAD30.30, with a high of CAD35 and a low of CAD27.

RioCan REIT (TSX: REI, OTC: RIOCF) has three “buys,” seven “holds” and zero “sells.” There have been no changes after third-quarter results were announced. The average 12-month price target is CAD30.08, with a high of CAD31 and a low of CAD28.85.

Shaw Communications Inc (TSX: SJR/A. NYSE: SJR) has five “buys,” 10 “holds” and two “sells,” with no changes to ratings following the release of fiscal 2012 fourth-quarter numbers. The average 12-month price target from 14 analysts is CAD21.46. The low forecast is CAD19, the high CAD24.

TransForce Inc (TSX: TFI, OTC: TFIFF) has eight “buys,” two “holds” and zero “sells.”

Alta Corp Capital Inc boosted the stock to “outperform” with a CAD20 12-month price target from “sector perform” with a CAD19 target.

EVA Dimensions raised its rating to “buy” from “overweight;” EVA doesn’t furnish 12-month price targets.\

The average 12-month target price among eight of the 10 analysts that cover TransFroce is CAD21.94, with a high of CAD25 and a low of CAD18.

The implied return potential based on TransForce’s Nov. 8 closing price of CAD17.51 and its average 12-month price target is 25.3 percent.

The following Conservative Holdings hadn’t announced results as of press time. Here are their buy-hold-sell lines, with average 12-month price targets in parentheses.

• Bird Construction Inc (TSX: BDT, OTC: BIRDF)–2–5–0 (CAD14.92)
• Brookfield Real Estate Services Inc (TSX: BRE, OTC: BREUF)–0–1–0 (N/A)
• IBI Group Inc (TSX: IBG, OTC: IBIBF)–7–2–2 (CAD12.11)
• Student Transportation Inc (TSX: STB, NSDQ: STB)–2–2–1 (CAD7.34)

Aggressive Holdings

Acadian Timber Corp (TSX: ADN OTC: ACAZF) has two “buys,” one “hold” and one “sell,” with no changes following the release of third-quarter numbers. The average 12-month target price is CAD12.88; all four provide one. The low is CAD12, the high CAD14.50.

Colabor Group Inc (TSX: GCL, OTC: COLFF) has one “buy,” four “holds” and zero “sells.” TD Securities upgraded the stock to “buy” with a CAD9.50 12-month target price from “hold” with a CAD8.50 target.

The average 12-month target price among the five analysts that cover the stock is CAD8.60, with a high of CAD9.50 and a low of CAD8.50.

Crescent Point Energy Corp (TSX: CPG, OTC: CSCTF) has 11 “buys,” four “holds” and one “sell,” with no changes to ratings following the company’s earnings announcement. The average 12-month price target from the 13 analysts that provide one is CAD47.31, with a low of CAD41 and a high of CAD52.

Extendicare Inc (TSX: EXE, OTC: EXETF) has two “buys,” two “holds” and one “sell,” with no changes after earnings. The average price target from four analysts is CAD8.17, with a high of CAD9 and a low of CAD7.50.

Newalta Corp (TSX: NAL, OTC: NWLTF) has eight “buys,” one “hold” and zero “sells,” with no recent changes. The average 12-month price target from seven analysts is CAD16.75, with a high of 18.50 and a low of CAD15.

Parkland Fuel Corp (TSX: PKI, OTC: PKIUF) has four “buys,” five “holds” and zero “sells,” with no changes since the company announced earnings. The average 12-month price target is CAD16.84, with a high of CAD18 and a low of CAD16.

Pengrowth Energy Corp (TSX: PGF, NYSE: PGH) has eight “buys,” eight “holds” and three “sells,” with no changes since the company’s earnings announcement. The average 12-month price target from 18 analysts is CAD7.64, with a high of CAD9.50 and a low of CAD6.25.

PetroBakken Energy Ltd (TSX: PBN, OTC: PBKEF) has 14 “buys,” eight “holds” and zero “sells,” with no changes after earnings. The average 12-month target price is CAD16.97, compiled from 19 analysts. The low forecast is CAD12.50, the high CAD22.

Vermilion Energy Inc (TSX: VET, OTC: VEMTF) has nine “buys,” six “holds” and one “sell,” with no post-earnings changes. The average 12-month price target from 14 of the 17 analysts that cover Vermilion is CAD52.29, with a high of CAD55 and a low of CAD46.

Wajax Corp (TSX: WJX, OTC: WJXFF) has three “buys,” seven “holds” and zero “sells.”

PI Financial Corp downgraded the stock to “neutral” with a CAD46 12-month target price from “buy” with a CAD55 target in the aftermath of Wajax’ third-quarter earnings announcement.

The average target among the nine analysts that provide a forecast is CAD46.94, with a high of CAD52.50 and a low of CAD43.

The following Aggressive Holdings hadn’t announced results as of press time. Here are their buy-hold-sell lines, with average 12-month price targets in parentheses.

• Ag Growth International Inc (TSX: AFN, OTC: AGGZF)–2–5–5 (CAD32.75)
• ARC Resources Ltd (TSX: ARX, OTC: AETUF)–6–13–1 (CAD26.19)
• Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund (TSX: CHE-U, OTC: CGIFF)–3–2–1 (CAD18.13)
• Noranda Income Fund (TSX: NIF-U, OTC: NNDIF)–1–0–0 (N/A)
• Peyto Exploration & Development Corp (TSX: PEY, OTC: PEYUF)–12–3–2 (CAD27.27)
• Poseidon Concepts Corp (TSX: PSN, OTC: POOSF)–10–0–1 (CAD19.95)