Maple Leaf Memo
Finance Minister Jim Flaherty
is wrapping up a two-day meeting in Saskatoon,
Saskatchewan, with provincial and
territorial finance ministers. The gathering is an annual event, but this
year’s has obvious urgency given the state of the global economy, Canada’s
susceptibility to declining growth, and the circus the debate over a proper policy
response has become.
There’s broad agreement on
the general need for fiscal as well as continued monetary stimulus. The
Conference Board of Canada on Tuesday issued a report calling for a CAD10
billion to CAD13 billion in new government spending, and Bank of Canada
Governor Mark Carney on Wednesday signaled the central bank’s readiness to cut
rates even further. (Though Carney indicated measures as drastic as those
contemplated by the US Federal Reserve won’t likely be necessary.)
The provinces and
territories, as they did during an early November meeting with Prime Minister
Stephen Harper, will push for federal spending on shovel-ready infrastructure
projects. While there’s broad agreement about the short- and long-term benefits
of such efforts, there are differences among the disparate regions up North.
Billions in unplanned
spending, now to be included in the budget scheduled to be presented Jan. 27,
will push Canada
into its first budget deficit in a decade. The federal government has pledged
to accelerate CAD6 billion already set aside for 2009 for infrastructure
spending, and provincial and territorial finance ministers will be seeking aid
for their particular struggling industries.
Last week, Ottawa and
Ontario’s provincial government reached agreement on a deal to offer CAD3.3
billion in aid to Canada’s auto industry, contingent on the approval of a proposed
USD14 billion US bailout package in Washington. A report from the provincial
government warned that more than 580,000 jobs could be lost within five years
if The Big Three automakers collapse.
Other provincial finance
ministers have indicated support for the automakers deal, but they have needs
of their own. British Columbia, Manitoba and Quebec have
been pushing for aid for their forestry sector, and Saskatchewan says the agriculture sector is
also struggling. The energy industry is also likely to be discussed; Alberta recently sent a
letter to Prime Minister Harper requesting help for investment and job creation
in the oil and gas sectors.
Flaherty said Wednesday that
he and his fellow finance ministers agree shovels have to be in the ground
quickly if projects are going to stimulate the economy and help create jobs. He
indicated the provinces should also contribute–“to put their own resources
where their mouths are,” in his words.
Flaherty and Harper face a
great deal of pressure to appease local governments and a litany of industries.
To stave off potential defeat next year in the House of Commons, the government
will have to introduce measures in the pending Jan. 27 budget that will satisfy
the opposition parties.
Flaherty, in an effort to appease
opponents and Canadians following the release of the fiscal update, has said
the coming budget would include stimuli in an effort to stoke domestic demand. Opposition
parties formed a coalition at the beginning of December to dethrone Harper, who
suspended Parliament in order to avoid a vote of no confidence. His political
survival will once again be in play after the budget is presented.
The top priority of the
proposed opposition coalition proposed by the Liberal Party and the New
Democratic Party with the support of the Bloc Quebecois is a CAD30 billion
package to include: speeding up existing and new municipal and interprovincial
infrastructure projects such as transit, clean energy, water, corridors and
gateways; housing construction and retrofitting; and investing in manufacturing,
forestry and car-making.
New Liberal leader Michael
Ignatieff, no fan of the coalition gambit, hasn’t ruled out a compromise, but
said it was up to Harper to take the first step.
All interested parties agree
that stimulus is necessary, and that it should be timely, targeted and
temporary. As well, efforts should include the goal of reestablishing confidence
in financial markets.
Flaherty, Harper and the
various local governments and industry groups face a daunting task: reducing
broad generalities and big dollar figures to policies that will help in the
short term and also generate long-term growth. But the various dialogues taking
place across Canada
suggest a workable plan will be on the table awaiting Parliament once it
returns to business.
“I think Canadians expect all
of us not to be partisan,” said Flaherty during a press avail in conjunction
with his Wednesday meeting with provincial finance ministers. That thought is
backed up by recent polling numbers released by Angus Reid and Ipsos-Reid.
If those numbers mean
anything, Canadians’ esteem for Harper is receding, but nobody likes the
coalition. According to the Angus Reid survey, the Ignatieff-led Liberals are
much stronger, with 31 percent support, compared to 37 percent for the
Conservatives. Prior to Ignatieff’s ascendance, Liberal support was at 22
percent, compared to 42 percent for the Conservatives.
And for the first time in
years the Liberals’ leader had more support as “preferred prime minister” than
Harper. Ignatieff is preferred by 28 percent, compared to 27 percent for
Harper. Harper hadn’t scored below 30 percent since 2006. In Quebec, results are particularly stark, with
37 percent favoring Ignatieff to 11 percent for Harper.
The Ipsos-Reid survey says: “Opposition
to the Liberal-NDP-Bloc collation continues to be strong, even with Mr. Ignatieff
as chief, with 57 percent of Canadians indicating that they oppose the
coalition.” Roughly the same percentage would want the Governor General to call
a new election rather than invite the coalition to govern should the Harper-led
minority government be defeated on the budget issue in the House of Commons.
“Unprecedented” is the word
of the week, the month, 2008; but let’s not get carried away with the US
Federal Reserve’s move yesterday to establish a target range of 0 to 0.25
percent for the fed funds rate.
The actual fed funds rate and
short-term Treasury bill rates had been well below the Fed’s previous 1 percent
“target” for some time; Tuesday’s announcement was more a recognition of
reality than any breaking of new ground.
In addition to opting for a target
range rather than a point for fed funds, the Federal Open Market Committee
(FOMC) approved a 75 basis point decrease in the discount rate to 0.50 percent
and established interest rates on required and excess reserve balances of 0.25
percent.
In announcing its decision,
the FOMC said, “Since the Committee’s last meeting, labor market conditions
have deteriorated, and the available data indicate that consumer spending,
business investment, and industrial production have declined. Financial markets
remain quite strained and credit conditions tight. Overall, the outlook for
economic activity has weakened further.”
This marks the first time the
fed funds rate has been below 1 percent. And it’s likely to stay near those
levels for some time.
The Fed said it “will employ all available tools to promote the resumption of
sustainable economic growth and to preserve price stability.” The statement
discussed the prospects for unconventional monetary policy to stimulate the
economy. Since early September, the Fed’s balance sheet has grown over USD1
trillion to more than USD2 trillion in total.
“As previously announced, over the next few quarters the Federal Reserve will
purchase large quantities of agency debt and mortgage-backed securities to
provide support to the mortgage and housing markets, and it stands ready to
expand its purchases of agency debt and mortgage-backed securities as conditions
warrant,” the statement said.
The FOMC also said it was looking at the potential benefits of purchasing
long-term Treasuries in an effort to influence interest rates favorably. In
addition, the Fed said it will implement the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan
Facility to extend credit to households and small businesses.
Other unconventional means of monetary policy will also be considered as the
FOMC tries to support financial markets and stimulate the economy “through open
market operations and other measures that sustain the size of the Fed’s balance
sheet at a high level.”
All 10 members of the FOMC
voted in favor of the announced actions.
Crescent Point Energy Trust (TSX: CPG-U, OTC: CPGCF) raised CAD100 million from investors
to buy 17 percent stake in Wild River
Resources, a private company with properties in the Bakken play in
Saskatchewan, and another CAD12.5 million of property acquisitions in the same
region. The financing was led by Scotia
Capital, BMO Capital Markets and CIBC World Markets. Crescent Point sold
4.5 million trust units for CAD22 each. Crescent
Point Energy Trust is a buy up to USD25.
True Energy Trust (TSX: TUI-U, OTC: TUIJF) cut its distribution in half, to CAD0.02 per
unit. Hold True Energy Trust.
Great Lakes Hydro Income Fund (TSX: GLH-U, OTC: GLHIF) snapped up two wind farms,
one in British Columbia and the other in Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario, from Brookfield Renewable Power for CAD130 million
price tag. Great Lakes Hydro is raising CAD75 million by selling units on a
bought-deal basis to a syndicate including CIBC World Markets and RBC Capital Markets. The units were
priced at CAD16 each. Great
Lakes Hydro Income Fund
is a buy up to USD18.
Bird Construction Income Fund (TSX: BDT-U, OTC: BIRDF) announced the delay of a
construction contract for Petro-Canada
Oil Sands’ Fort Hills Mine after Petro-Canada Oil Sands deferred a final
investment decision on the project to 2009. Bird Construction was awarded the
contract for the design and construction of six buildings at the facility near Fort McMurray, Alberta,
on July 23, 2008. The buildings were expected to be completed in 2011. The
contribution of the contract to backlog value is approximately CAD100 million,
which will remain until Petro-Canada Oil Sands makes a final determination
about its plans. Bird Construction
Income Fund is a buy up to USD20.
Canadian Apartment Properties REIT (TSX: CAR-U, OTC: CDPYF) acquired a 153-suite, 19-story
luxury apartment building in Quebec
City, Quebec. The
property includes 19,500 square feet of commercial space. It’s centrally
located with 99 percent occupancy. The CAD17.8 million purchase price was
satisfied by the assumption of a Canada Mortgage Housing Corporation-insured
mortgage of approximately CAD10.5 million maturing in 2011 with an interest
rate of 4.21 percent, a new CAD2.2 million five-year mortgage with an interest
rate of 3.62 percent, and the balance from CAP REIT’s acquisition facility. Canadian Apartment Properties REIT is a buy
up to USD15.
InnVest REIT
(TSX: INN-U, OTC: IVRVF) unitholders may soon be voting on the removal and
replacement of four trustees based on a motion made by Royal Host REIT (TSX: RYL-U, OTC: ROYHF). Royal Host owns more than
5 percent of InnVest. InnVest REIT is a
buy up to USD6.
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