Last month in this space we reported that Canada added more than 50,000 jobs in February, six times the median forecast of analysts, two times even the high estimate.

Today, however, Statistics Canada reported that the Great White North shed 54,500 jobs in March, the biggest decline in employment since February 2009, near the depths of the Great Recession.

The March decline is more than two times the low forecast from a Bloomberg canvass of a loss of 20,000 jobs. And it’s much worse than the median estimate of a 6,500 gain.

Canada’s unemployment rate rose for the first time in five months, to 7.2 percent from 7 percent. Economists were expecting 7 percent unemployment.

The headline numbers were bad. And there was little below the surface to offset them. Full-time employment fell by 54,000, while part-time positions shrank by 400. Private employers cut 85,400 workers, the biggest one-month drop since January 2009, and public-sector employment fell by 7,700. Workers designated as employees by StatsCan declined by 93,100. Self-employment, however, increased by 38,700.

Accommodation and food service fell by 24,900, followed by cuts of 24,300 in public administration and 24,200 in manufacturing.

Average hourly wages for permanent employees in Canada rose 2.1 percent in March from a year earlier, down from an increase of 2.2 percent in February.

Canadian monthly employment had risen on average by 29,000 for the six months prior to the March report. But Canadian gross domestic product has recorded weak annualized growth of less than 1 percent over this time, suggesting jobs gains were well ahead of actual economic growth.

The participation rate–the share of the population in the labor force–declined to 66.6 percent from 66.7 percent in February. The number of people in the labor force fell by 12,300.

The US employment report for March was also weaker than forecast, with US Dept of Labor figures showing payrolls rose by 88,000, less than half the amount forecast by economists surveyed by Bloomberg and the smallest gain in nine months. But the headlines here obscured news that was a little more encouraging than that emanating from the north.

The US unemployment rate ticked down to 7.6 percent from 7.7 percent, the lowest rate since December 2007, but the decline is explained by more people dropping out of the labor force, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The participation rate, a measure of health in the labor market, slid again to 63.3 percent, the lowest level since 1979.

The good news: Employment gains for February and January were both revised higher, and people who do hold jobs put in more hours. The number of new jobs created in February was revised to 268,000 from 236,000, while January’s figure was revised up to 148,000 from 119,000.

The biggest increase in hiring in March occurred in professional services (51,000) and health care (23,000). Retailers and government trimmed employment. Average hourly wages edged up USD0.01 USD23.82, reducing the 12-month increase to 1.8 percent. The average workweek rose 0.1 hour to 34.6, a sign that workers are putting in more overtime.

The Canadian dollar, which had bounced from a 2013 low of USD0.9690 on March 6 to USD0.9874 on April 4, has softened to USD0.9829 as of early Friday afternoon, April 5. That’s up from an intraday low of USD0.9769.

The bigger picture for the loonie is a little bit brighter, as recent data from the International Monetary Fund indicates foreign central banks continue to diversify their currency holdings beyond the traditional US dollar, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, British pound sterling and euro mix.

The March 29, 2013, IMF report on its database of global reserves, the Composition of Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER), showed that the share of central bank reserves tied up in dollars and yen declined during the fourth quarter of 2012, while the share devoted to the euro was unchanged.

Meanwhile, the share invested in the category labeled “other”–which includes non-traditional currencies such as the Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar–surged to an all-time high of 6.12 percent.

Although there are problems in the Canadian economy, including a housing market that still has room to come down (though it’s doing so in an orderly manner and in accordance with new policy measures to tighten mortgage eligibility) as well as the pernicious impact of oil-price differentials on its key resource sector, the financial system up north remains sound and government finances are in relatively good order.

This rough patch will pass, in due time. In fact the bounce off today’s lows suggests central banks continue to step into loonie-denominated assets on weakness.

The “big five” still command the lion’s share of central bank foreign currency holdings. But the trend toward the loonie and the aussie–which share in common underlying economies focused on resource production and export as well as supporting governments with relatively low levels of debt–is clear.

“Other” surpassed the Japanese yen to take fourth place during the fourth quarter of 2009 and leapt over the British pound for third place in the third quarter of 2010.

The US dollar and the euro remain in first and second place, respectively, but “other’s” share has grown substantially in the 21st century, from 1.49 percent of allocated reserves at the end of 2000 to 5.49 percent in 2011 to the present accounting above 6 percent as of Dec. 31, 2012.

An August 2012 IMF report had found that the loonie and the aussie should be broken out from the group of currencies reported as “other.” A March report in The Wall Street Journal indicates this will happen by June 30, 2013.

“The IMF is expanding the list of currencies separately identified in the COFER template,” an IMF spokeswoman told the WSJ. “The implementation of the revised COFER Report Form, with separate identification of the Australian dollar and Canadian dollar, is scheduled for the first half of 2013.”

It’s important to note that the IMF is simply breaking out data for the loonie and the aussie. This alone should have no substantive impact, as it’s an after-the-fact accounting of actions central banks have already taken.

A new line-item doesn’t make these currencies any more or less fundamentally attractive. But it does acknowledge the fact that the Canadian dollar, as well as the Australian dollar, has achieved a certain critical point in the eyes of central banks around the world.

Bay Street Beat

Eight Canadian Edge Portfolio Holdings reported fourth-quarter and full-year 2012 earnings after the March issue was published. Here’s how Bay Street responded.

Innergex Renewable Energy Inc (TSX: INE, OTC: INGXF) was upgraded to “buy” from “hold” at Canaccord Genuity Corp, though the firm reduced its 12-month target price for the stock from CAD11 to CAD10.75. BMO Capital Markets, meanwhile, boosted Innergex to “outperform” from “market perform,” though it too trimmed its price forecast, from CAD11.50 to CAD11.25.

CIBC World Markets reiterated its “sector outperform” rating on Innergex buy cut its 12-month target price to CAD11.25 from CAD11.50. Stifel maintained a “buy” rating but trimmed its target price to CAD11.25 from CAD11.50.

Scotia Capital reiterated its “sector perform” rating on the stock but reduced its 12-month target price to CAD10.50 from CAD11. RBC Capital Markets also maintained a “sector perform” rating; it cut the 12-month target from CAD12 to CAD11.

Innergex now has seven “buy” ratings versus three “holds” and one “sell,” better than last month’s five-five-one buy-hold-sell line, though its average 12-month target price came down to CAD11.23 from CAD11.59.

April Best Buy Bird Construction Inc’s (TSX: BDT, OTC: BIRDF) fourth-quarter and full-year numbers caused nary a ripple among the seven Bay Street analysts that cover the stock, and in this case the consistency is not foolish.

Canaccord Genuity Corp (“hold” rating, CAD13.50 12-month target price), Scotia Capital (“sector underperform,” CAD12.50), CIBC World Markets (“sector perform,” CAD15) and Raymond James (“market perform,” CAD15) all reiterated their advice and maintained their 12-month price targets.

GMP reiterated its “hold” rating but raised its 12-month target price to CAD14.50 from CAD14. TD Securities also reiterated a “hold” rating, but the firm reduced its 12-month forecast for Bird stock to CAD14.50 from CAD15.

Bird Construction’s buy-hold-sell line remains one-five-one, though its average 12-month target price ticked down to CAD14.17 from CAD14.25.

Northern Property REIT (TSX: NPR-U, OTC: NPRUF) was downgraded to “underweight” from “hold” by EVA Dimensions, which doesn’t provide 12-month price forecasts with its recommendations. CIBC World Markets reiterated its “sector perform” rating but reduced its 12-month target price for the REIT from CAD34 to CAD33.

Scotia Capital (“sector perform,” CAD34.25), TD Securities (“buy,” CAD36), Canaccord Genuity Corp (“buy,” CAD35.20), Dundee Securities Corp (“buy,” CAD34.50), Macquarie (“underperform,” CAD30.50) and RBC Capital Markets (“sector perform,” CAD34) all maintained their ratings and their 12-month target prices.

Northern Property now has four “buy” ratings versus three “holds” and two “sells” with an average 12-month target price of CAD33.92. Last month the REIT had a buy-hold-sell line of four-five-one with an average price forecast of CAD34.09. 

Among the final group of Aggressive Holdings to report fourth-quarter and full-year 2012 results, Ag Growth International Inc (TSX: AFN, OTC: AGGZF) was upgraded to “sector perform” from “underperform” at National Bank Financial, which maintained a CAD32.50 12-month target price for the stock.

Laurentian Bank Securities, meanwhile, boosted Ag Growth to “buy” from “hold,” though it trimmed its price forecast to CAD35.50 from CAD36.50. The stock was upgraded to “underweight” from “sell” by EVA Dimensions.

Scotia Capital cut Ag Growth to “sector perform” from “sector outperform” and reduced its 12-month target price to CAD37 from CAD39.

TD Securities maintained a “hold” rating on the stock but lifted its 12-month target price to CAD33 from CAD31. CIBC World markets reiterated its “sector perform” rating but reduced its 12-month target price to CAD33 from CAD36.

Cormark Securites (“buy,” CAD40), Macquarie (“neutral,” CAD26), Paradigm Capital Inc (“buy,” CAD40), PI Financial Corp (“neutral,” CAD32) maintained their ratings and price forecasts.

Ag Growth’s buy-hold-sell line improved to three-six-one from three-five-two, though its average 12-month target price declined from CAD37.25 to CAD34.33.

Scotia Capital reiterated its “sector outperform” rating on Colabor Group Inc (TSX: GCL, OTC: COLFF) and lifted its 12-month target price to CAD9.50 from CAD9. TD Securities, meanwhile, maintained a “hold” rating but cut its price forecast to CAD7 from CAD8.

Desjardins Securities (“hold,” CAD7.50), Industrial Alliance Securities (“hold,” CAD7.50) and 

National Bank Financial (“outperform,” CAD8.50) reiterated ratings and price targets on the stock.

Colabor’s buy-hold-sell line remains two-three-zero, though its average 12-month target price ticked down to CAD8 from CAD8.10 last month.

Crescent Point Energy Corp’s (TSX: CPG, OTC: CSCTF) solid fourth-quarter and full-year results led 17 houses to reiterate “buy”-equivalent ratings. FirstEnergy Capital Corp (“outperform”) boosted its 12-month target price to CAD50 from CAD49.50, while Salman Partners (“buy”) raised its forecast to CAD40 from CAD39.

Crescent Point still has 19 “buy” ratings versus three “holds” and one “sell” with an average 12-month target price of CAD45.98, up slightly from CAD45.74.

IBI Group Inc’s (TSX: IBG, OTC: IBIBF) fourth-quarter and full-year numbers inspired Canaccord Genuity to cut its rating on the stock to “hold” from “buy”–to which it has upgraded it in February–and to reduce its 12-month target price to CAD6.50 from CAD8.50. Scotia Capital downgraded it to “sector underperform” from “sector perform,” with a price forecast of CAD5, down from CAD6.50.

National Bank Financial, which on March 5 upgraded IBI to “outperform,” downgraded it to “sector perform” and reduced its target to CAD6.75 from CAD7.50.

Laurentian Securities, which had the stock “under review,” rates the stock a “hold” with a price forecast of CAD5.25.

Desjardins Securities maintained its “buy” rating on IBI but cut its 12-month target price to CAD7.50 from CAD8.50.

CIBC World Markets reiterated a “sector perform” rating but trimmed its target to CAD7.50 from CAD8.50. Stonecap Securities Inc also reiterated a “sector perform” rating, though its price forecast is down to CAD6.75 from CAD8.

Raymond James kept a “market perform” rating but cut its target to CAD6 from CAD9. TD Securities still rates the stock a “hold” but with a new forecast of CAD6.50, down from CAD7.50.

IBI now has one “buy” rating versus eight “holds” and one “sell.” The average 12-month target price is CAD6.42, down from CAD7.80 last month.

PetroBakken Energy Ltd’s (TSX: PBN, OTC: PBKEF) numbers earned it an upgrade from “hold” to “buy” at Salman Partners, though the firm cut its 12-month target price to CAD11.25 from CAD12.

Macquarie upped its target to CAD10.25 but held its rating at “neutral.”

Fraser MacKenzie Ltd reiterated its “buy” rating but reduced its 12-month target price drastically, to CAD12.50 from CAD17. Spin-Off Research still rates the stock a “buy” but trimmed its forecast to CAD10 from CAD12. FirstEnergy Capital Corp maintained a “outperform” rating but lowered its price forecast to CAD12 from CAD12.50.

Raymond James maintained a “market perform” rating but cut its target to CAD10.50 from CAD13. Credit Suisse remains “neutral” on the stock but sees it at CAD10 in a year, down from a prior forecast of CAD11. Scotia Capital reiterated a “sector perform” rating but slashed its target to CAD12 from CAD16.

EVA Dimensions now calls the stock a “buy,” changed from “overweight.”

Alta Corp Capital Inc (“sector perform,” CAD9.50), Barclays (“equalweight,” CAD9), BMO Capital Markets (“market perform,” CAD9), CIBC World Markets (“sector perform,” CAD11), Cormark Securities Inc (“buy,” CAD14), Dundee Securities Corp (“buy,” CAD13), Haywood Securities Inc (“sector outperform,” CAD14.25), National Bank Financial (“outperform,” CAD17.25), Peters & Co Ltd (“sector underperform,” CAD8), RBC Capital Markets (“sector perform,” CAD11.50), Stifel (“sell,” no 12-month target price) and TD Securities (“buy,” CAD13) kept their ratings and price targets intact.

PetroBakken’s buy-hold-sell line is now 12-nine-two, up from 11-1-two last month, though its average 12-month target price is down to CAD11.47 from CAD12.24.

There were several minor actions on companies that didn’t report earnings.

Conservative Holding AltaGas Ltd (TSX: ALA, OTC: ATGFF) is now on the restricted list at BMO Capital Markets, which previously rated the stock “outperform,” and at CIBC World Markets, which had the stock rated “sector outperform.”

AltaGas now has four “buy” ratings, two “holds” and one “sell,” with an average 12-month target price of CAD39.

Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners LP (TSX: BEP-U, OTC: BRPFF) is off the restricted list at CIBC World Markets and is now rated “sector perform” by the firm, with a CAD32 12-month target price, up from a previous target of CAD31 set in early February.

Brookfield Renewable is also off BMO Capital Markets’ restricted list, with an “outperform” rating and a CAD34 12-month target.

Cineplex Inc (TSX: CGX, OTC: CPXGF) was downgraded from “overweight” to “hold” by EVA Dimensions. EVA Dimensions doesn’t provide 12-month target prices. Cineplex now has a seven-six-zero buy-hold-sell line; its average 12-month target price remains CAD34.20.

Davis + Henderson Income Corp (TSX: DH, OTC: DHIFF) was raised to “strong buy” from “buy” at Industrial Alliance Securities, with a new 12-month target price of CAD25, up from CAD23.

Davis + Henderson’s buy-hold-sell line remains three-five-zero, as there’s no distinction between “strong buy” and “buy” under Bloomberg’s standardization of Bay Street and Wall Street analyst-speak. The stock’s average 12-month target price is up to CAD23.36 from CAD2307 last month.

Just Energy Group Inc (TSX: JE, NYSE: JE) had its 12-month target price cut to CAD7 from CAD8 by National Bank Financial, though the firm reiterated its “sector perform” rating. RBC Capital Markets reduced its 12-month target price for the stock to CAD7.50 from CAD9 but kept its “sector perform” rating.

CIBC World Markets cut its price forecast to CAD6.50 from CAD8 while repeating its “sector underperform” rating. Just Energy still has one “buy” rating versus three “holds” and two “sells.” Its average 12-month target price declined to CAD7.70 from CAD8.50 a month ago.

TD Securities boosted its 12-month target price for Keyera Corp (TSX: KEY, OTC: KEYUF) to CAD56 from CAD52, though the firm reiterated a “hold” rating on the stock. Keyera’s buy-hold-sell line remains eight-three-one, though its average price forecast rose to CAD57.80 from CAD57.40 a month ago.

Pembina Pipeline Corp (TSX: PPL, NYSE: PBA) was placed on the restricted list at Peters & Co Ltd. It now has a nine-two-one buy-hold-sell line with a CAD34.41 average 12-month target price.

BMO Capital Markets initiated coverage of TransForce Inc (TSX: TFI, OTC: TFIFF) with an “outperform” rating and a 12-month target price of CAD25.

As for action on Aggressive Holdings since the March issue was published, the Bay Street bloodletting on Atlantic Power Corp (TSX: ATP, NYSE: AT) appears to have abated. BMO Capital Markets upgraded the stock to “market perform” from “underperform,” though the firm reduced its 12-month target price to CAD5 from CAD7. Scotia Capital lifted its rating to “sector perform” from “sector underperform,” though it too trimmed its price forecast, from CAD6 to CAD5.50.

TD Securities reiterated a “hold” rating but sliced its 12-month target price to CAD5.63 from CAD7.21. RBC Capital Markets still rates the stock “underperform” but sees it at CAD6 a year from now, down from a prior estimate of CAD7.

Atlantic now has five “hold” ratings and three “sell” ratings among the eight analysts that cover it, with an average 12-month target price of CAD6.38. The buy-hold-sell line last month was zero-three-five, though the average forecast was CAD7.10.

TD Securities downgraded ARC Resources Ltd (TSX: ARX, OTC: AETUF) from “buy” to “hold” but maintained a CAD27 12-month target price.

ARC was cut to “sell” from “underweight” at EVA Dimensions.

Credit Suisse (to CAD30 from CAD29), FirstEnergy Capital Corp (to CAD33 from CAD31) and National Bank Financial (to CAD28 from CAD27) boosted 12-month target prices while reiterating “outperform” ratings on the stock. Scotia Capital maintained a “sector outperform” rating but raised its price forecast to CAD29.50 from CAD27.50.

Macquarie reiterated its “neutral” stance but raised its 12-month target price for the stock from CAD26.25 to CAD28.25.

Scotia Capital raised its 12-month target price on Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund (TSX: CHE-U, OTC: CGIFF) to CAD18 from CAD17 while maintaining a “sector perform” rating on the stock.

Peyto Exploration & Development Corp (TSX: PEY, OTC: PEYUF) was cut to “hold” from “buy” at GMP, which nevertheless raised its 12-month price target on the stock to CAD29.50 from CAD28.

FirstEnergy Capital Corp reiterated its “top pick” designation for Peyto and boosted its price forecast to CAD37.50 from CAD35.

EVA Dimensions upgraded Vermilion Energy Inc (TSX: VET, NYSE: VET) to “overweight” from “hold.” EVA doesn’t provide price-target forecasts.

Here’s how the CE Portfolio stacks up on Bay Street after the reporting period for fourth-quarter and full-year 2012 results and ahead of first-quarter 2013 earnings season.

The number of analyst “buy,” “hold” and “sell” ratings for each company are shown, followed by the average 12-month price target among the analysts that provide such guidance.

Conservative Holdings

• AltaGas Ltd (TSX: ALA, OTC: ATGFF)–4–2–1 (CAD39.00)
• Artis REIT (TSX: AX-U, OTC: ARESF)–6–2–0 (CAD17.75)
• Bird Construction Inc (TSX: BDT, OTC: BIRDF)–1–5–1 (CAD14.17)
• Brookfield Real Estate Services Inc (TSX: BRE, OTC: BREUF)–0–1–0 (CAD13.50)
• Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners LP (TSX: BEP-U, OTC: BRPFF)–8–4–0 (CAD33.00)
• Canadian Apartment Properties REIT (TSX: CAR-U, OTC: CDPYF)–7–3–0 (CAD26.89)
• Cineplex Inc (TSX: CGX, OTC: CPXGF)–7–6–0 (CAD34.20)
• Davis + Henderson Income Corp (TSX: DH, OTC: DHIFF)–3–5–0 (CAD23.36)
• Dundee REIT (TSX: D-U, OTC: DRETF)–4–2–0 (CAD41.35)
• EnerCare Inc (TSX: ECI, OTC: CSUWF)–4–2–0 (CAD10.50)
• Innergex Renewable Energy Inc (TSX: INE, OTC: INGXF)–7–3–1 (CAD11.23)
• Just Energy Group Inc (TSX: JE, NYSE: JE)–1–3–2 (CAD7.70)
• Keyera Corp (TSX: KEY, OTC: KEYUF)–8–3–1 (CAD57.80)
• Northern Property REIT (TSX: NPR-U, OTC: NPRUF)–4–3–2 (CAD33.92)
• Pembina Pipeline Corp (TSX: PPL, NYSE: PBA)–9–2–1 (CAD34.41)
• RioCan REIT (TSX: REI-U, OTC: RIOCF)–3–5–0 (CAD29.97)
• Shaw Communications Inc (TSX: SJR/B, NYSE: SJR)–4–12–2 (CAD23.64)
• Student Transportation Inc (TSX: STB, NSDQ: STB)–2–2–1 (CAD7.24)
• TransForce Inc (TSX: TFI, OTC: TFIFF)–10–1–0 (CAD25.06)

Aggressive Holdings

• Acadian Timber Corp (TSX: ADN, OTC: ACAZF)–1–2–1 (CAD13.63)
• Ag Growth International Inc (TSX: AFN, OTC: AGGZF)–3–6–1 (CAD34.33)
• ARC Resources Ltd (TSX: ARX, OTC: AETUF)–11–8–1 (CAD27.16)
• Atlantic Power Corp (TSX: ATP, NYSE: AT)–0–5–3 (CAD6.38)
• Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund (TSX: CHE-U, OTC: CGIFF)–2–4–0 (CAD17.80)
• Colabor Group Inc (TSX: GCL, OTC: COLFF)–2–3–0 (CAD8.00)
• Crescent Point Energy Corp (TSX: CPG, OTC: CSCTF)–19–3–1 (CAD45.98)
• Extendicare Inc (TSX: EXE, OTC: EXETF)–2–2–1 (CAD8.17)
• IBI Group Inc (TSX: IBG, OTC: IBIBF)–1–8–1 (CAD6.42)
• Newalta Corp (TSX: NAL, OTC: NWLTF)–9–0–1 (CAD17.82)
• Noranda Income Fund (TSX: NIF-U, OTC: NNDIF)–1–0–0 (CAD8.00)
• Parkland Fuel Corp (TSX: PKI, OTC: PKIUF)–5–4–0 (CAD19.06)
• PetroBakken Energy Ltd (TSX: PBN, OTC: PBKEF)–12–9–2 (CAD11.47)
• Peyto Exploration & Development Corp (TSX: PEY, OTC: PEYUF)–10–6–2 (CAD29.39)
• Vermilion Energy Inc (TSX: VET, OTC: VEMTF)–11–6–1 (CAD56.36)
• Wajax Corp (TSX: WJX, OTC: WJXFF)–3–7–0 (CAD42.44)