In Bailouts We Trust
In terms of stock market performance, the first quarter of 2013 was probably one of the calmest in recent memory. The threat of Cyprus going bankrupt was dispensed with quickly, and the market ascended to new highs. It seems a “new normal” is now in place: Bailouts and government stimulus programs have become a fact of life. So barring some horrific systemic blowups, you take the good with the bad and move on.
Let’s start with the bad. The worst news so far this year came in April. Hopes for the March employment report ran high, with the US labor market expected to add at least 200,000 new jobs. But those hopes were crushed. Just 88,000 new jobs were actually created. Although the US unemployment rate fell slightly, from 7.7 percent to 7.6 percent, that came as the result of nearly 500,000 disaffected workers ending their job search.
The markets didn’t respond as badly as one would expect, even though the S&P 500 closed down close to 1 percent the day of the announcement. We can thank a lot of other good news for that.
Revving Up. Equifax, one of the major consumer credit-reporting agencies, reported that the total number of outstanding auto loans is now at its highest level in nearly four years: 59 million loans worth a total of $789 billion. This is not only good news for Detroit— and probably Tokyo and Seoul—it’s an excellent indication that: (1) credit is once again flowing; and (2) Americans are willing to borrow. Considering the scant improvement in the overall employment situation, this is a solid sign that US households are getting a grip on their finances.
Equifax data also showed that the amount considered severely delinquent on first mortgages fell 23 percent, from $490 billion to $375 billion, and about 65 percent of this was on mortgages issued in the peak bubble years of 2007-08. That’s still a staggeringly high number for delinquent mortgage debt. But it’s less than the total value of mortgages originated in the third quarter of last year. So while we’re still working through the fallout from the real estate bubble, at least we’re not adding to the problem, thanks to tighter underwriting standards.
I expect stock-market volatility to remain high, at least relative to the period prior to the Great Recession. But I’m also looking forward to a spring thaw and a warmly profitable summer, considering the “new normal” and the market’s obviously sanguine mood.
As Damon Vickers noted (See “Across the Street,”), 1982 was a similar time. The Dow Jones Industrial Average had tried for 15 years to break 1,000, and back then we had 21 percent interest rates and 11 percent unemployment. Yet the Dow broke out in 1982 and went on to new record highs.
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