On Thursday, June 6, Stephen Poloz, the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) new governor, delivered his first statement before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance.

The central bank chief memorably characterized the global economic recovery since the financial crisis as more akin to a period of post-war reconstruction than a typical economic rebound. Mr. Poloz described the Canadian economy as having undergone a massive structural change, with much of the production capacity lost during the recession having yet to return.

As such, domestic demand via household expenditures has been one of the major factors in Canada’s economic recovery. Indeed, Mr. Poloz asserted that the monetary and fiscal stimulus employed to counter the contraction had successfully supported robust growth in domestic demand during the period following the financial crisis.

But, notably, he observed that with the economy now weakening, this approach to spurring growth has perhaps reached its limit.

However, any hawkishness on the monetary front remains purely theoretical for now. In late May, for instance, the BoC announced that it would continue to target an overnight rate of 1 percent, which is where this important benchmark has remained since late 2010, the longest such pause since the 1950s. And Mr. Poloz reiterated the central bank’s intent to maintain historically low interest rates until the fragile recovery gains further traction.

The governor’s vision of a healthy Canadian economy encompasses one that’s shifting away from domestic demand toward growth in net exports and business investment. That means the economy is necessarily dependent on growth returning to key export markets, such as the US.

Part of that equation requires a weakening currency. The Canadian dollar has regularly traded above parity with the US dollar since early 2011, but fell below this threshold in early February. It then staged a rally through the first week of May, rising as high as USD0.997, before speculation that the US Federal Reserve could begin curtailing some of its extraordinary easing caused traders to pile into the US dollar.

Thereafter, the loonie fell as low as USD0.962, but then jumped this week to USD0.978 following a broad-based selloff in the US dollar. These moves may seem infinitesimally small to the layperson, but they’re fairly substantial in the currency markets.

Overall, given the mixed economic data in the US, including this morning’s employment report, speculation that the Fed will start to wind down its easing will remain just that.

Although the headline number in this morning’s jobs report showed the US economy added 175,000 jobs in May, the temporary help and food service industries together accounted for almost 37 percent of that gain. While the positive trend in job creation has been sustained, the underlying data are not exactly suggestive of a truly resurgent economy. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate ticked up a tenth of a percentage point, to 7.6 percent.

Given the anemic recovery of Canada’s largest trading partner, the country has reported fairly persistent trade deficits since late 2008. Though the April deficit was well off last year’s peak of CAD2.9 billion, it still came in at CAD567 million, based on a 1.2 percent rise in imports and a 0.2 percent decline in exports.

Though April’s trade deficit was up significantly from the CAD3 million deficit in March, thankfully the larger trend shows a narrowing of deficits since last July. Still, it was the 16th consecutive month of deficits since the CAD2.4 billion surplus reported for December 2011.

Record-high imports of CAD40.8 billion were driven by energy products, motor vehicles and parts, and metal ores and non-metallic minerals.

Canada’s exports had been on an upward trend since last July but fell 0.5 percent, to CAD40.3 billion. Exports of metal ores and non-metallic minerals dropped 13.8 percent, to CAD1.5 billion, due to lower volumes and falling commodity prices.

In particular, exports of copper, whose industrial use makes it a key indicator of global economic growth, plunged 62 percent, to CAD136 million. Among exports of energy products, coal fell 29.1 percent.

The trend toward narrowing trade deficits helped boost Canada’s real gross domestic product (GDP) by 0.6 percent during the first quarter, as exports grew 1.5 percent during that period. So perhaps April’s decline in exports will turn out to be a blip, rather than the resumption of a worrisome trend.

GDP grew at its fastest clip in six quarters, and the aforementioned figure translates into an annualized rate of 2.5 percent. By comparison, US GDP grew at an annualized rate of 2.4 percent over that same period.

Canada’s first-quarter GDP exceeded the BoC’s original forecast, which hadn’t expected growth to pick up until the second half of the year. The central bank had previously forecast full-year growth of 1.5 percent for 2013, followed by a jump to 2.8 percent in 2014. Despite the economy’s stronger-than-expected performance, in its late-May statement, the BoC said it still anticipates full-year growth to be in line with its earlier forecast.

Meanwhile, the resources sector continues to be the country’s primary growth engine. Mining and oil and gas extraction were up 4.1 percent during the quarter, continuing the strong growth from the prior quarter.

Unfortunately, business investment is still sluggish. Investment in plants and equipment rose just 0.2 percent, while investment in machinery and equipment fell 0.2 percent.

Finally, Canada’s unemployment rate continued its long-term downward trend, declining 0.1 percentage points in May, to 7.1 percent.

More important, the economy added 95,000 jobs last month, a majority of which were full-time, for the single largest month of employment growth in more than a decade.

That result blew past the consensus forecast of 15,000 jobs. And the only reason those numbers failed to push the employment rate lower is because more Canadians were looking for work last month. This caused an increase in the labor force participation rate, which increased by 0.2 percentage points, to 66.7 percent.

The construction sector was the primary driver of jobs growth, with 43,000 new jobs, after two months of essentially flat numbers. This number is the logical consequence of the 10.5 percent increase in building permits during April, to CAD7 billion. Construction intentions for multi-family housing led the way that month, rising 21 percent, to CAD4.4 billion.

In an effort to quell its housing bubble, regulators had imposed a number of changes to mortgage lending requirements last summer, and that’s priced many prospective first-time homebuyers out of the market. As this demographic resigns itself to renting, demand for apartments and condos has risen accordingly.

The bottom line is that the Canadian economy has shown some promising pockets of growth in recent months, but it’s too soon to tell whether that’s enough to buck the more pessimistic full-year forecasts.

Bay Street Beat

The vast majority of Canadian Edge Portfolio Holdings reported first-quarter 2013 earnings after the May issue was published. Here’s how Bay Street responded.

Raymond James downgraded Artis REIT (TSX: AX-U, OTC: ARESF) to “market perform,” which is essentially a “hold” rating. Among the seven analysts who offer price targets, the consensus 12-month price target rose slightly to CAD18.04, which is 15.7 percent higher than where units trade presently.

Raymond James upgraded Bird Construction Inc (TSX: BDT, OTC: BIRDF) to “outperform,” which is equivalent to a “buy” rating. The ratings mix otherwise remained the same. Nevertheless, among the seven analysts who offer price targets, the 12-month consensus price target fell to CAD13.21 from CAD14.29. That’s still 8.4 percent above the current share price.

The one analyst who tracks Brookfield Real Estate Services Inc (TSX: BRE, OTC: BREUF) maintained the status quo, with a “sector perform,” or “hold” rating, and a 12-month price target of CAD13.50.

Cannacord Genuity Corp upgraded Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners LP (TSX: BEP-U, OTC: BRPFF) to a “buy.” The mix of ratings otherwise remained the same. Among the 11 analysts who offer price targets, the consensus 12-month price target ticked up slightly to CAD33.09, which is 10.6 percent higher than where units currently trade.

National Bank Financial initiated coverage of Canadian Apartment Properties REIT (TSX: CAR-U, OTC: CDPYF) with a rating of “outperform,” which is equivalent to a “buy.” The mix of ratings otherwise remained the same. Among the 11 analysts who offer price targets, the consensus 12-month price target ticked up slightly to CAD27, which is 12.9 percent higher than where units trade presently.

EVA Dimensions downgraded Cineplex Inc (TSX: CGX, OTC: CPXGF) to “hold.” The ratings mix otherwise stayed the same. However, among the nine analysts who offer price targets, the 12-month consensus target jumped to CAD35.11 from CAD34.40 a month ago. Even so, that represents just a 1.9 percent gain from current share prices.

Industrial Alliance Securities downgraded Davis + Henderson Income Corp (TSX: DH, OTC: DHIFF) to “buy” from “strong buy.” The ratings mix was otherwise consistent with last month. But among the seven analysts who offer price targets, the 12-month consensus target rose to CAD24.07 from CAD23.36 a month ago. That’s 4.7 percent above where shares trade presently.

Dundee REIT’s (TSX: D-U, OTC: DRETF) ratings mix is five “buys,” and one “hold.” Though no ratings changes were indicated by Bloomberg, this is an improvement from the mix of four “buys” and two “holds” a month ago.

Even so, among the five analysts who offer price targets, the 12-month consensus target dropped to CAD40.30 from CAD41.63. That’s largely due to CIBC World Markets lowering its price target to CAD37.50 from CAD40. Nevertheless, the consensus price target would represent a gain of 19.2 percent above the current share price.

EnerCare Inc (TSX: ECI, OTC: CSUWF) was downgraded to “sector perform,” or “hold,” by RBC Capital Markets, but upgraded to “overweight,” or “buy,” by EVA Dimensions. That means the overall ratings mix remains unchanged at four “buys” and two “holds.”

Among the five analysts who offer price targets, the consensus 12-month target moved up slightly to CAD11 from CAD10.70 a month ago. The new price target would represent a gain of 18.6 percent from the current share price.

Cantor Fitzgerald initiated coverage of Innergex Renewable Energy Inc (TSX: INE, OTC: INGXF) as a “hold.” The ratings mix is otherwise unchanged, and the 12-month consensus price target declined by just a penny, to CAD11.19. That’s 9.7 percent above current share prices.

There were no ratings changes this month among the 11 analysts who track Keyera Corp (TSX: KEY, OTC: KEYUF). But among the 10 analysts who offer price targets, the 12-month consensus price target rose to CAD63.20 from CAD61.50 a month ago. The new price target would represent a 7.6 percent gain from current share prices.

Although Bloomberg does not indicate any recent ratings changes, the ratings mix for Northern Property REIT (TSX: NPR-U, OTC: NPRUF) improved slightly to four “buys,” five “holds,” and one “sell.” Among the eight analysts who offer price targets, the 12-month consensus price target is CAD33.74, which is 16.6 percent above the current unit price.

Cannacord Genuity Corp upgraded Pembina Pipeline Corp (TSX: PPL, NYSE: PBA) to “buy” from “hold.” Among the 11 analysts who offer price targets, the 12-month consensus price target improved to CAD35.64 from CAD34.70. The new target is 10 percent above current share prices.

There were no ratings changes for RioCan REIT (TSX: REI-U, OTC: RIOCF) during the past month. But among the eight analysts who offer price targets, the 12-month consensus price target rose to CAD30.66 from CAD30.12. The new price target shows that analysts believe the stock has a return potential of 14.8 percent.

BMO Capital Markets initiated coverage of Student Transportation Inc (TSX: STB, NSDQ: STB) at “market perform,” or “hold.” Among the five analysts who offer price targets for the stock, the 12-month consensus target dropped slightly to CAD7.14, which is 9.4 percent above the current share price.

There were no ratings changes for Acadian Timber Corp (TSX: ADN, OTC: ACAZF) during the past month. However, among the three analysts who track the stock, the 12-month consensus price target dropped to CAD13.25 from CAD13.63. That shows analysts expect share prices to fall by 6.3 percent over the next year.

Ag Growth International Inc (TSX: AFN, OTC: AGGZF) was downgraded to “hold” by Laurentian Bank Securities, but TD Securities upgraded the stock to a “buy.” Therefore, the overall ratings mix of three “buys,” six “holds,” and one “sell” remains unchanged.

Among the nine analysts who offer price targets for the stock, the 12-month consensus price target improved to CAD35.00 from CAD34.33. But that still only represents a gain of 1 percent above current share prices.

Analysts continue to take a “wait and see” approach with Atlantic Power Corp (TSX: ATP, NYSE: AT), which has eight “holds” and one “sell,” with no ratings changes over the past month.

Among the eight analysts who offer price targets for the stock, the 12-month consensus price target ticked lower to CAD5.75 from CAD5.89. Still, that’s a potential gain of 22 percent over the current share price.

Though Bloomberg doesn’t specify any ratings changes for Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund (TSX: CHE-U, OTC: CGIFF) over the past month, EVA Dimensions is now listed as rating the security as “underweight,” or “sell.”

However, among the five analysts who offer price targets, there was a small improvement in the 12-month consensus target to CAD18.20 from CAD18.00. The new target is 4.5 percent above the current price.

There were no ratings changed during the month for Crescent Point Energy Corp (TSX: CPG, OTC: CSCTF), and the 12-month consensus price target declined slightly to CAD45.98 from CAD46.11 a month ago. The new target is 26.3 percent above the current share price.

Enerplus Corp (TSX: ERF, NYSE: ERF) was upgraded to “sector perform,” or “hold,” by CIBC World Markets. Raymond James also upgraded the stock to “outperform,” or “buy,” while RBC Capital Markets downgraded it to “sector perform.” Among the 16 analysts who currently offer price targets for the stock, the 12-month consensus price target is CAD17.64, which is 14.6 percent above the current share price.

Extendicare Inc’s (TSX: EXE, OTC: EXETF) ratings mix now stands at four “holds” and one “sell,” though Bloomberg does not indicate any ratings changes.

Among the three analysts who offer price targets, the 12-month consensus target fell sharply to CAD7.08 from CAD8.17 a month ago. Nevertheless, that would still represent a 5.7 percent return from the current share price.

Ratings were unchanged for Just Energy Group Inc (TSX: JE, NYSE: JE) this month. However, among the six analysts who offer price targets, the 12-month consensus price target declined to CAD6.92 from CAD7.08 a month ago. That’s 0.9 percent below the current share price, reflecting analysts’ diminished expectations for this stock.

There were no ratings changes specified for Newalta Corp (TSX: NAL, OTC: NWLTF) during the past month, though there’s now one “hold” rating in lieu of the one “sell.”

Among the eight analysts who offer price targets for the stock, the 12-month consensus target now stands at CAD17.11, down from CAD17.51 a month ago. The new price target suggests a potential return of 29 percent from the current share price.

TD Securities maintained its “buy” rating for Noranda Income Fund (TSX: NIF-U, OTC: NNDIF), as well as its 12-month price target of CAD8.00, which is 50.9 percent above the current price. No other analysts track this security.

There were no ratings changes for Parkland Fuel Corp (TSX: PKI, OTC: PKIUF) during the month. And among the eight analysts who offer price targets for the stock, the consensus 12-month price target climbed to CAD19.28 from CAD19.03 a month ago. The new price target is 11.7 percent above the current share price.

Salman Partners upgraded Peyto Exploration & Development Corp (TSX: PEY, OTC: PEYUF) to a “buy,” while Raymond James initiated coverage at “outperform,” or “buy.” Among the 17 analysts who offer price targets, the 12-month consensus price target improved to CAD32.69 from CAD30.80. However, the new target suggests a potential gain of just 1.8 percent.

There were no ratings changes for Wajax Corp (TSX: WJX, OTC: WJXFF) during the month. Unfortunately, among the nine analysts who offer price targets for the stock, the 12-month consensus price target dropped sharply to CAD33.67 from CAD39.89. The new target suggests a potential return of 3.2 percent from the current share price.

Here’s how the CE Portfolio stacks up on Bay Street now that all our companies have reported earnings.

The number of analyst “buy,” “hold” and “sell” ratings for each company are shown, followed by the average 12-month price target among the analysts that provide such guidance.

Month-over-month variances in the number of analysts listed below for each stock are often due to those securities being on a brokerage’s restricted list for a brief period. A restricted list is a compliance measure that’s typically used during the period when the investment banking side of an analyst’s firm is involved in advising the company.

Conservative Holdings

• AltaGas Ltd (TSX: ALA, OTC: ATGFF)–6–2–1 (CAD39.88)
• Artis REIT (TSX: AX-U, OTC: ARESF)–6–3–0 (CAD18.04)
• Bird Construction Inc (TSX: BDT, OTC: BIRDF)–2–5–1 (CAD13.21)
• Brookfield Real Estate Services Inc (TSX: BRE, OTC: BREUF)–0–1–0 (CAD13.50)
• Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners LP (TSX: BEP-U, OTC: BRPFF)–8–3–0 (CAD33.09)
• Canadian Apartment Properties REIT (TSX: CAR-U, OTC: CDPYF)–9–3–0 (CAD27.00)
• Cineplex Inc (TSX: CGX, OTC: CPXGF)–7–5–0 (CAD35.11)
• Davis + Henderson Income Corp (TSX: DH, OTC: DHIFF)–3–5–0 (CAD24.07)
• Dundee REIT (TSX: D-U, OTC: DRETF)–5–1–0 (CAD40.30)
• EnerCare Inc (TSX: ECI, OTC: CSUWF)–4–2–0 (CAD11.00)
• Innergex Renewable Energy Inc (TSX: INE, OTC: INGXF)–8–4–1 (CAD11.19)
• Keyera Corp (TSX: KEY, OTC: KEYUF)–7–3–1 (CAD63.20)
• Northern Property REIT (TSX: NPR-U, OTC: NPRUF)–4–5–1 (CAD33.74)
• Pembina Pipeline Corp (TSX: PPL, NYSE: PBA)–7–4–1 (CAD35.64)
• RioCan REIT (TSX: REI-U, OTC: RIOCF)–3–7–0 (CAD30.66)
• Shaw Communications Inc (TSX: SJR/B, NYSE: SJR)–5–9–5 (CAD23.46)
• Student Transportation Inc (TSX: STB, NSDQ: STB)–2–3–1 (CAD7.14)
• TransForce Inc (TSX: TFI, OTC: TFIFF)–9–2–0 (CAD22.83)

Aggressive Holdings

• Acadian Timber Corp (TSX: ADN, OTC: ACAZF)–1–1–1 (CAD13.25)
• Ag Growth International Inc (TSX: AFN, OTC: AGGZF)–3–6–1 (CAD35.00)
• ARC Resources Ltd (TSX: ARX, OTC: AETUF)–10–8–1 (CAD29.13)
• Atlantic Power Corp (TSX: ATP, NYSE: AT)–0–8–1 (CAD5.75)
• Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund (TSX: CHE-U, OTC: CGIFF)–2–3–1 (CAD18.20)
• Colabor Group Inc (TSX: GCL, OTC: COLFF)–1–2–2 (CAD5.35)
• Crescent Point Energy Corp (TSX: CPG, OTC: CSCTF)–18–3–1 (CAD45.98)
• Enerplus Corp (TSX: ERF, NYSE: ERF)­–9–7–1 (CAD17.64)
• Extendicare Inc (TSX: EXE, OTC: EXETF)–0–4–1 (CAD7.08)
• Just Energy Group Inc (TSX: JE, NYSE: JE)–1–3–3 (CAD6.92)
• Lightstream Resources Ltd (formerly PetroBakken Energy Ltd) (TSX: LTS, OTC: PBKEF)–8–11–2 (CAD10.57)
• Newalta Corp (TSX: NAL, OTC: NWLTF)–9–1–0 (CAD17.11)
• Noranda Income Fund (TSX: NIF-U, OTC: NNDIF)–1–0–0 (CAD8.00)
• Parkland Fuel Corp (TSX: PKI, OTC: PKIUF)–6–3–0 (CAD19.28)
• Peyto Exploration & Development Corp (TSX: PEY, OTC: PEYUF)–15–2–2 (CAD32.69)
• Vermilion Energy Inc (TSX: VET, OTC: VEMTF)–13–4–1 (CAD56.40)
• Wajax Corp (TSX: WJX, OTC: WJXFF)–2–8–0 (CAD33.67)