Bargain Blue Chips
What kind of stocks sell at discounts on a variety of measures? You’d expect them to be the small fry ignored by Wall Street. But you’d be wrong, at least in this current market.
Out of curiosity, we ran a screen for stocks that meet these two criteria: (1) priced at a discount to their book value; and (2) have a price-earnings ratio (P/E) that’s below the industry average. Instead of the penny-stocks we expected to see, our screen turned up two titans of American industry, both of them tied to agriculture.
E.I. du Pont de Nemours && Company (NYSE: DD)
Recent price: $55.44; Yield: 3.25 percent; 2012 Earnings Per Share (EPS): $3.38; 2013 EPS Consensus Estimate: $3.89.
Dupont has boosted both sales and earnings, by 9 percent and 15 percent annually, the past three years. But it gets little respect for this feat, we think mainly because it’s an unwieldy conglomerate that’s thought to be mostly a chemicals and materials business, which it is not.
The fact is that the company that brought us nylon, Lycra, Teflon and Corian, has morphed into an agricultural giant. Consider that 67 percent of Dupont’s operating income in first-quarter 2013 came from agricultural products, with another 24 percent from chemicals and materials combined.
Dupont is going head-to-head with Monsanto (NYSE: MON) in genetically modified (GM) seeds, where it has some 19 percent of a world market that’s valued at about $40 billion. Monsanto has the better GM technology, but Dupont has made great strides in catching up.
Most corn and soy planted in the US is from GM seeds that must be bought each year. In response to last year’s drought, close to 97 million acres of corn is expected to be planted in the US this year, the most since 1936. Soy plantings are expected to be around 78 million acres.
DuPont also has a growing presence in nutrition and health products, including soy, which is being increasingly used in foods as well as environmentally friendly industrial chemicals. And it continues to make a wide variety of specialty chemicals, including titanium dioxide for paints and coatings and Kevlar for bulletproof vests.
Dupont shares are trading at a 4 percent discount to their $57 book value, and priced at 14 times 2013 earnings estimates. Revenue and earnings should continue growing faster than the global economy, at a time when Dupont’s costs are falling thanks to weaker commodity prices.
Deere & Company (NYSE: DE)
Recent price: $86.81; Yield: 2.35 percent; FY 2012 Earnings Per Share (EPS): $7.63; FY 2013 EPS Consensus Estimate: $8.52.
Despite controlling half the market for agricultural equipment here in the US and establishing a growing presence in emerging markets, Deere is currently trading at just 10.6 times trailing 12-month earnings. That’s less than half its industry’s average multiple, and the discount becomes even wider if we consider Deere’s 2013 earnings estimates.
Competition is a concern as is the cyclical nature of Deere’s business, which is largely driven by crop prices. When farm output is fetching low bids, farmers are less likely to invest in new equipment.
That said, there are two significant trends that bode well for Deere’s long-term prospects.
Consolidation among foreign farms. Here in the US, the family farms have been pretty much taken over by large corporate entities that require a great deal of machinery to operate efficiently. That same trend is now starting to develop in most of the major emerging markets, leading to more demand for advanced and mechanized farming techniques.
Deere has cornered nearly half the Indian market for large tractors, pushed into the Chinese and Russian markets and recently introduced a number of new, smaller tractors in Brazil that have met with great success. As a result, the company’s sales in emerging markets have been growing about 15 percent annually during the past several years.
Housing-related goods. Deere also makes lawnmowers as well as construction and forestry machinery, demand for which is improving thanks to the ongoing recovery in the US housing market. Lumber is need for construction, and new homeowners need mowers and other lawn equipment to care for their yards.
We think these two factors have yet to be priced into Deere’s stock, which is trading at a discount to its 16 percent revenue growth over the past three years and 54 percent growth in earnings over this same period.
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