Technological Turnaround

For many technology investors, Infosys (NYSE: INFY) is a portfolio staple. The company is one of the world’s leading offshore IT services company, but its results recently have been disappointing as businesses delay technology spending and competition in the industry reaches cutthroat levels.

India-based Infosys has long been a model of stability, averaging 13 percent annual compound growth in revenues and 10 percent annual compound growth in net income. Although the company’s operating margins can be lumpy as new systems and platforms are developed and launched, they typically run in excess of 25 percent.

Now, the company’s fortunes are looking brighter, with the announcement earlier this month that N.R. Murthy, one of the company’s original founders, will return as chief executive officer.

The consensus is that Infosys has lost its way under current CEO S.D. Shibulal. Many analysts have claimed that Shibulal’s commitment to maintaining premium prices has forced the company to cede ground to its competitors, weighing on revenues and earnings.

Murthy, who served as the company’s CEO from 1981 to 2002 and its chairman from 1981 to 2011, has already made a splash. He’s pledged to right the ship within three years, dropping prices if needed and focusing on cost optimization to help improve margins. He also announced an average 8 percent pay raise for Infosys employees, even though he said he would consider slowing growth in headcount.

Murthy’s return is obviously cheering analysts. One month ago, the average earnings estimate for the current fiscal year came in at $2.98 in earnings per share (EPS) and it has since jumped to $3.09 in EPS. The outlook has also improved for the next fiscal year, with EPS jumping from $3.10 to $3.16 just over the past month.

Infosys currently has nearly 800 long-term clients on the books. If Murthy is true to his word and steps back from Infosys’s premium pricing model, he could drive rapid client growth. The company is competing in a highly commoditized business and movement on price point would certainly help the company regain its competitive edge.

With no debt on its books, a cash cushion of more than USD4 billion and more than USD1 billion in quarterly free cash flow, Murthy has room to maneuver.

IT outsourcing services should see demand pick up with any improvement in the business environment. Running internal IT departments is an expensive proposition and most companies are growing earnings largely by controlling costs. Outsourcing IT operations is a logical choice when one of the biggest concerns is maximizing efficiencies.

A turnaround play that will likely take at least a year to pan out, Infosys is a great buy under 52 for those who can afford to wait.

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