In June, Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz, who took the helm of the central bank at the beginning of that month, famously characterized Canada’s recovery from the global downturn as more akin to a post-war reconstruction than a typical economic rebound.

Mr. Poloz noted that the Great Recession created lasting structural damage to the economy that’s still being felt in key areas, such as business creation and manufacturing exports. For instance, he cited the fact that exports are the only component of Canada’s gross domestic product (GDP) that remains below its peak prior to the recession, with annual exports roughly $100 billion lower than is usual for this phase of a recovery.

The central bank chief cited strengthening in foreign economies, particularly the US, as the necessary prerequisite to rebuild demand, restore business confidence, and spur investment that leads to greater production and employment gains.

For now, the Canadian economy must contend with a slackening resources sector, which will likely take a hit from massive flooding in the energy-rich province of Alberta. Economists expect the stall in production during the worst flooding in Alberta’s history could shave 0.3 percentage points from June GDP and another 0.1 percentage points from July GDP.

But it will be a couple more months before June data become available. Longer term, some economists predict that reconstruction activity along with public spending to support those efforts could more than replace the lost growth.

Toward the end of June, Statistics Canada (StatsCan) reported April GDP data that showed the real economy grew by 0.1 percent, for the fourth consecutive monthly increase. However, after a stronger-than-expected first quarter, where GDP climbed at a 2.5 percent annualized pace, this was a marked slowdown in momentum.

For additional context, the economy grew 0.3 percent each month in January and February, and 0.2 percent in March. And over the trailing 12 months, the economy grew 1.4 percent versus 1.7 percent over the prior period.

While services industries expanded by 0.3 percent in April, goods production declined by 0.3 percent. That was due to a 1.5 percent contraction in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction. That was the first decline in output in seven months for this area of the all-important resources sector. However, drilling drove a 3.2 percent rise in energy services, and that could bode well for future energy production.

Meanwhile, after last month’s extraordinary jobs report, where StatsCan reported that May employment growth surged by 95,000 jobs, the June figure was essentially flat, with the economy losing 400 jobs during the month. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 7.1 percent.

Nevertheless, these results were still strong enough to beat economists’ consensus forecast of a loss of 7,500 jobs. Also good news is the fact that StatCan believes the flooding in Alberta had a negligible effect on job creation.

Unfortunately, even with May’s sizable contribution to job growth, the overall trend in job creation is occurring at a decidedly slower pace than last year. During the first half of the year, the economy added an average of 14,000 new jobs per month versus an average of 27,000 per month last year. Additionally, full-time employment fell by 32,400 in June, while part-time employment increased by 32,200.

There could be an improvement in terms of job quality, however. Positions for professional, scientific and technical workers climbed by 27,000. And over the past year, this sector has added 63,000 jobs, for growth of 4.9 percent, which StatCan notes is one of the highest growth rates among all industries.

What about the latest unemployment data for Canada’s largest trading partner? In the US, the headline numbers for the June jobs report seemed promising, with the 195,000 jobs added soundly beating economists’ forecasts of 165,000. Equally encouraging, April and May payrolls were revised higher, by 50,000 jobs and 20,000 jobs, respectively.

Although the unemployment rate held steady at 7.6 percent, that’s likely because the participation rate ticked higher to 63.5 percent from 63.4 percent. This suggests more people are actively seeking employment than before.

The bond market believes these data increase the likelihood that the US Federal Reserve could begin tapering its bond-purchasing program sometime during the fall: The yield on the 10-year Treasury had risen as much as 23 basis points during Friday’s trading session (at time of writing) from its prior close.

Once again, however, a deeper dive into the underlying quality of the type of jobs being created does not provide great reassurance that the US economy has found its footing. According to the US Dept of Labor’s monthly survey of 60,000 households, the seasonally adjusted number of full-time workers dropped by 240,000 from May, while the number of part-time workers increased by 360,000.

That’s rather more dramatic than the establishment survey, which relies on non-farm payrolls data, though even that shows a significant percentage of jobs created were in industries that rely heavily on part-time workers, such as leisure and hospitality.

For instance, employment in food services and drinking establishments was higher by 51,700 jobs. In other words, wait staff and bartending gigs essentially accounted for 26.5 percent of new jobs. Temporary employment climbed by 9,500 jobs, accounting for 4.9 percent of new jobs. So altogether, these two areas accounted for 31.4 percent of employment gains, which is similar to last month when nearly 37 percent of jobs growth was derived from these industries.

These data are mirrored by movement in the underemployment rate, which includes part-time employees who’d prefer full-time gigs, as well as those who’d like to work but are no longer actively seeking employment. This rate jumped to a four-month high of 14.3 percent, up 0.5 percentage points from a month ago.

Of course, the flipside of this critique is that temporary staffing is seen as an economic bellwether presaging further improvement. And higher employment for waiters and bartenders suggests that consumers are dining out more often, which could mean either they suddenly have more disposable income to burn or at least sufficient confidence to now spend what was formerly dear.

Still, it’s too soon for Canada to pin its hopes for economic growth on a resurgent US economy. Fortunately, the Canadian economy is still growing, even if it’s at a more sluggish pace than previously.

Bay Street Beat

We’re now in the quiet period where the calendar second quarter has concluded, and we’re awaiting our companies’ next earnings releases. As such, there have been few significant changes in analyst sentiment for our stocks since last issue, with many ratings and even consensus 12-month price targets remaining largely static.

On June 18, Canaccord Genuity Corp downgraded Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners LP (TSX: BEP-U, OTC: BRPFF) to a “hold,” though it increased its 12-month price target to CAD30.39 from CAD30.13. The mix of analyst sentiment is now seven “buys,” three “holds,” and no “sells.”

The consensus 12-month price target dropped to CAD32.03 from CAD33.09, with Stifel lowering its price target the most among its peers, from CAD33.08 to CAD31.38. Even so, Stifel still rates the stock a “buy.” The new consensus price target is now 16.7 percent above the current unit price.

On June 28, Stifel upgraded Cineplex Inc (TSX: CGX, OTC: CPXGF) to a “buy,” while on July 3, EVA Dimensions lowered its rating to “underweight,” or “sell.” The mix of analyst sentiment now stands at five “buys,” five “holds,” and no “sells.”

Interestingly, the consensus 12-month price target improved to CAD36.56 from CAD35.11, though the new price target is still 1.6 percent below the current share price. The two biggest increases in price targets came from Raymond James and Industrial Alliance Securities, both of which have assigned the equivalent of “buy” ratings to the stock. The former raised its target to CAD40 from CAD36, while the latter increased its target to CAD39 from CAD36.

On June 27, Raymond James upgraded RioCan REIT (TSX: REI-U, OTC: RIOCF) to “outperform,” or “buy,” while on July 2, RBC Capital Markets also raised its rating to “outperform.” The mix of analyst sentiment is now five “buys,” five “holds,” and no “sells.”

However, the consensus 12-month price target fell to CAD29.56 from CAD30.66. The two largest changes in price target came from TD Securities and Cannacord Genuity Corp. The former, which rates the stock a “buy,” lowered its target to CAD29 from CAD32, while the latter, which rates the stock a “hold,” decreased its target to CAD27.75 from CAD30.

On June 28, Shaw Communications Inc (TSX: SJR/B, NYSE: SJR) reported fiscal third-quarter numbers that surprised to the upside on sales by 1.8 percent, but fell short of analysts’ expectations on earnings per share by 4.7 percent.

Though there were no changes in the mix of ratings, the 12-month consensus price target rose to CAD24.87 from CAD23.46. Despite this improvement, the new consensus price target is still 0.5 percent below the current share price.

Analysts with Veritas, Macquarie and Goldman Sachs raised their price targets the most among their peers, even though Veritas rates the stock a “sell,” while both Macquarie and Goldman rate the stock “neutral,” or “hold.”

Veritas increased its price target to CAD24 from CAD22, Macquarie raised its price target to CAD25 from CAD22, and Goldman upped its price target to CAD25 from CAD22.

On June 12, Alta Corp Capital initiated coverage of Ag Growth International Inc (TSX: AFN, OTC: AGGZF) at “outperform,” or “buy,” along with a 12-month price target set at CAD41. The mix of ratings is now four “buys,” six “holds,” and one “sell.”

Alta Corp’s price target is the highest among its peers, and as a result, the consensus 12-month price target improved to CAD35.60 from CAD35.

On June 21, FirstEnergy Capital Corp upgraded Crescent Point Energy Corp (TSX: CPG, OTC: CSCTF) from “outperform” to “top pick.” However, when summarizing analyst sentiment, both ratings are treated as equivalent to a “buy.” The current ratings mix now stands at 19 “buys,” three “holds,” and one “sell.”

And the 12-month consensus price target slightly decreased to CAD45.78 from CAD45.98. The new consensus target is 27.5 percent above the current share price.

In the listing below, the number of analyst “buy,” “hold” and “sell” ratings for each company are shown, followed by the average 12-month price target among the analysts for which we have access to such data.

Month-over-month variances in the number of analysts listed below for each stock are often due to those securities being on a brokerage’s restricted list for a brief period. A restricted list is a compliance measure that’s typically used during the period when the investment banking side of an analyst’s firm is involved in advising the company.

Conservative Holdings

• AltaGas Ltd (TSX: ALA, OTC: ATGFF)–6–2–1 (CAD39.88)
• Artis REIT (TSX: AX-U, OTC: ARESF)–6–3–0 (CAD17.84)
• Bird Construction Inc (TSX: BDT, OTC: BIRDF)–2–5–1 (CAD13.21)
• Brookfield Real Estate Services Inc (TSX: BRE, OTC: BREUF)–0–1–0 (CAD13.50)
• Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners LP (TSX: BEP-U, OTC: BRPFF)–7–3–0 (CAD32.90)
• Canadian Apartment Properties REIT (TSX: CAR-U, OTC: CDPYF)–9–3–0 (CAD26.45)
• Cineplex Inc (TSX: CGX, OTC: CPXGF)–5–5–1 (CAD36.56)
• Davis + Henderson Income Corp (TSX: DH, OTC: DHIFF)–3–5–0 (CAD24.07)
• Dundee REIT (TSX: D-U, OTC: DRETF)–5–1–0 (CAD38.53)
• EnerCare Inc (TSX: ECI, OTC: CSUWF)–4–2–0 (CAD11.00)
• Innergex Renewable Energy Inc (TSX: INE, OTC: INGXF)–9–3–1 (CAD11.06)
• Keyera Corp (TSX: KEY, OTC: KEYUF)–7–3–1 (CAD63.20)
• Northern Property REIT (TSX: NPR-U, OTC: NPRUF)–4–5–1 (CAD32.84)
• Pembina Pipeline Corp (TSX: PPL, NYSE: PBA)–7–4–1 (CAD35.64)
• RioCan REIT (TSX: REI-U, OTC: RIOCF)–5–5–0 (CAD29.56)
• Shaw Communications Inc (TSX: SJR/B, NYSE: SJR)–6–9–4 (CAD24.87)
• Student Transportation Inc (TSX: STB, NSDQ: STB)–2–3–1 (CAD7.14)
• TransForce Inc (TSX: TFI, OTC: TFIFF)–8–3–0 (CAD22.83)

Aggressive Holdings

• Acadian Timber Corp (TSX: ADN, OTC: ACAZF)–0–1–1 (CAD12.50)
• Ag Growth International Inc (TSX: AFN, OTC: AGGZF)–4–6–1 (CAD35.60)
• ARC Resources Ltd (TSX: ARX, OTC: AETUF)–10–8–1 (CAD29.24)
• Atlantic Power Corp (TSX: ATP, NYSE: AT)–0–8–1 (CAD5.58)
• Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund (TSX: CHE-U, OTC: CGIFF)–2–3–1 (CAD18.20)
• Crescent Point Energy Corp (TSX: CPG, OTC: CSCTF)–19–3–1 (CAD45.78)
• Enerplus Corp (TSX: ERF, NYSE: ERF)–9–7–1 (CAD17.97)
• Extendicare Inc (TSX: EXE, OTC: EXETF)–0–4–1 (CAD7.08)
• Lightstream Resources Ltd (formerly PetroBakken Energy Ltd) (TSX: LTS, OTC: PBKEF)–8–11–2 (CAD10.50)
• Newalta Corp (TSX: NAL, OTC: NWLTF)–9–1–0 (CAD17.11)
• Noranda Income Fund (TSX: NIF-U, OTC: NNDIF)–1–0–0 (CAD8.00)
• Parkland Fuel Corp (TSX: PKI, OTC: PKIUF)–6–3–0 (CAD19.28)
• Peyto Exploration & Development Corp (TSX: PEY, OTC: PEYUF)–15–2–2 (CAD32.94)
• Vermilion Energy Inc (TSX: VET, OTC: VEMTF)–13–4–1 (CAD56.66)
• Wajax Corp (TSX: WJX, OTC: WJXFF)–2–8–0 (CAD33.67