Taking Stock
THE LONG VIEW
Anheuser-Busch InBev (NYSE: BUD)
Southern exposure. BUD became Mexico’s largest beer company in June, when it bought the half of Grupo Modelo that it didn’t already own for $20 billion. To get regulatory approval, BUD had to sell its Modelo holdings in the US. So it will aggressively market Corona and other Modelo brands in Europe, where they’re likely to win market share. Mexico, the world’s fourth-largest beer market, is now a duopoly between BUD and Heineken (NA: HEIA).
HCP (NYSE: HCP)
A rate scare. Investors are worried that rising rates will increase HCP’s financing costs while its rental income stays fixed due to long-term leases. We think the market has over-reacted. Currently yielding close to 5 percent, HCP is a high-quality REIT with financially savvy management that’s likely to ride out the rate scare.
Lululemon Athletica (NSDQ: LULU)
A new Day. Sentiment has broadly turned against LULU, since CEO Christine Day said she’ll leave the yoga clothier as soon as a replacement is found. Day says she’s going for personal reasons, but we think her departure has more to do with quality-control issues that lead to the see-through pants fiasco earlier this year.
While the stock is riskier due to Day’s departure, LULU remains a strong brand with a good growth trajectory. First-quarter 2013 results were better-than-expected and second quarter is also likely to hold up well, with the company forecasting 5 to 7 percent growth in same-store sales.
Myriad Genetics (NSDQ: MYGN)
Mixed ruling. In mid-June, the US Supreme Court ruled that companies can’t patent human genes, negating Myriad’s patents on two genes used to predict the likelihood of breast cancer.
However, Myriad’s patents are still valid on how it isolates and identifies the genes, how its tests work and a host of other processes. While Myriad’s two key tests will now face competition, the company has a strong R&D pipeline and first-mover advantage.
THE FINAL COUNT
Weatherford International (NYSE: WFT)
Slowing flows. Given flat oil and gas prices, there’s likely to be less demand for the services of WFT in the coming year.
WFT has begun selling off noncore assets and shoring up its balance sheet. But over the past three months, consensus earnings estimates for this year and next have been steadily dropping. In order to win new business, Weatherford has been forced to accept narrower margins on its contracts, causing a 5 percent decline in net margin over the past year and an 81 percent drop in earnings per share in the latest quarter.
With little pricing power in a challenging market, there’s likely little upside left for WFT.
Mattel (NYSE: MAT)
Dolled up. They’re a long way from Barbie, but Mattel’s “American Girl” historical dolls have been a big hit, with sales up 12 percent in 2012. This trend accelerated first-quarter 2013, as American Doll sales jumped 32 percent, coming off a better-than-expected holiday season. Mattel earnings were up a strong 12 percent in 2012. And the company boosted its dividend 16 percent, to 36 cents per share, providing for a 3 percent recent yield. Mattel shares are now a hold for income-oriented portfolios.
iShares Global Health Care (NYSE: IXJ)
Pink of health. The health care sector’s long-term prognosis is very good. The 78 million baby boomers in the US are aging, while rising incomes in the emerging markets are increasing health care utilization.
Merger and acquisition activity in the sector is also picking up, with the recently announced merger of Tenet Healthcare (NYSE: THC) and Vanguard Health Systems (NYSE: VHS), and Onyx Pharmaceuticals (NSDQ: ONXX) rebuffing an unsolicited offer from Amgen (NSDQ: AMGN). The flurry of deals is helping to push up sector valuations around the world.
Obamacare will also be coming into full effect in 2014, and China continues to invest billions annually in modernizing its health care system. For all these reasons, IXJ remains a solid long-term investment.
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