When Location Is Key
Salt and certain other basic commodities are cheap. But since they’re bought in very large amounts, they’re expensive to transport. And so the most efficient local producers/transporters often dominate regional markets. Lately, some of these producers have fallen out of favor due to the vagaries of their trade – either weather-related or due to the slow economy. Below, we take a look at two that seem poised to rebound.
Compass Minerals Int’l (NYSE: CMP)
Recent Price: $87.47; Recent Yield: 2.5 percent; 2012 Earnings Per Share (EPS): $3.10; 2013 EPS Consensus Estimate: $4.13.
Compass is the largest provider of salt used in road de-icing and water conditioning in North America and the UK. It’s also a leading supplier of potash, a specialty fertilizer, and magnesium chloride, also a de-icer. Overall, salt-related operations are 75 percent of Compass’ revenue, with 43 percent of this road salt.
The price of road salt doesn’t vary much over time; it costs about $50 per ton. Due to the relatively low pricing, the large amounts ordered, and high transportation costs, Compass has a virtual monopoly on highway de-icing that spans the Midwest and East Coast of the US, up to Ontario, Canada.
Compass’ competitive advantage is that it operates the world’s largest rock-salt mine, in Goderich, Ontario. And this mine happens to be near a deep-water port on Lake Huron, which helps keep transportation costs down. The company’s mine in the UK is the largest in that country.
Revenue at Compass has been flat the past two years as relatively mild back-to-back winters slowed demand for road salt. But in the first quarter of 2013, revenue jumped to $384 million, versus $315 million in the year-ago-period, as municipalities added to their stocks of salt.
At the same time, Compass has recovered from an August 2011 tornado that caused significant damage at its Ontario facilities, and this will help bring its production costs back down to normal levels. Another plus is that close to 25 percent of Ontario’s mining operations will become automated, further lowering costs.
In addition to higher revenue due to improved cyclical demand, net profit margin at Compass jumped to12 percent in first-quarter 2013 versus 9.4 percent for 2012. Returns on assets and equity also posted substantial improvement in the quarter.
While Compass shares are up by about 17 percent so far this year, there should be substantial upside left. For 2013, earnings estimates have jumped from an average of $3.65 three months ago to $4.13 recently, although estimates for 2014 have remained relatively flat, rising to $4.79, from $4.73 three months ago. And most analysts rate Compass shares a hold currently, despite rising earnings.
Vulcan Materials Co (NYSE: VMC)
Recent Price: $46.94; Recent Yield: 0.9 percent; 2012 Earnings Per Share (EPS): $-0.56; 2013 EPS Consensus Estimate: $-0.02.
Vulcan also benefits from a geographic monopoly. Producing construction aggregates such as sand, gravel and crushed stone, Vulcan’s products generally fetch relatively low prices. However, due to their weight and high transportation costs, Vulcan typically dominates its market, which is much of the eastern seaboard and southern US.
Tied at the hip with the US construction industry, Vulcan has been posting losses and its shares have yet to regain their pre-recession high. However, the company is likely to turn profitable by next year. New home construction in the US has been on the rise, with new-home starts up 29 percent from a year ago and completions up 13 percent. And federal highway construction authorized in 2012 will also be getting underway this summer, creating additional demand for aggregates.
Vulcan is a higher risk play than Compass due its aggressive acquisition strategy and relatively high debt level. However, Vulcan shares are down some 10 percent so far this year, and they’re likely to rebound along with construction activity.
Extremely wet weather across most of Vulcan’s primary markets has slowed sales volumes so far this year. But construction should be starting in earnest as we enter the prime summer building season.
The company has also significantly reduced its expenses over the past several quarters, and it has recently pushed through a number of price increases, making it an increasingly attractive play on a rebound in US construction.
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