A Positive Trend Emerges for Australia’s Housing Sector
With Australia’s commodity boom having peaked, the question we’ve been grappling with is which sector of the country’s economy could be poised to lead the way. Previously, our best guess had been the real estate sector, and new data has provided additional evidence of a resurgent housing market.
According to RP Data, Australian home prices rose for the second consecutive month in July, with particular strength in Sydney, Melbourne and Perth, which had gains of 2 percent, 2.3 percent, and 1.6 percent, respectively. At the same time, other major cities, such as Brisbane and Adelaide, showed virtually no increase in sales prices or even posted slight declines. But overall, housing prices have climbed 6.5 percent since their bottom in May 2012. And the bottom itself was relatively modest, with a peak-to-trough decline of just 7.4 percent.
Of course, the beginning of what could be a positive trend is occurring amid other data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) that are less rosy. June dwelling approvals fell 6.9 percent, a weaker-than-expected performance compared to economists’ expectations of a 2 percent rise. And the figures for May were also revised lower, from the initial report of a decline of 1.1 percent to a drop of 4.4 percent. These data contrast sharply with April, which showed a jump of 13.1 percent in dwelling approvals, based on the latest revision.
The bright spot is that much of the weakness in building activity is in multi-family housing, where approvals have fallen sharply, down 22.3 percent and 37.4 percent in May and June, respectively. Meanwhile, the number of approvals for detached homes increased 11.3 percent and 9.9 percent in May and June, respectively. On a sequential basis, June data showed the sixth consecutive month in rising approvals for private sector homes.
This divergence between houses and multi-unit dwellings was also reflected in a survey on new home sales conducted by the Housing Industry of Australia. The survey showed that new home sales rose for the fourth consecutive month in June, with sales for new houses up 7.3 percent, while multi-unit sales fell 17.5 percent. This essentially reverses the trend that had prevailed last year, when multi-unit sales were strong, while sales of detached houses declined.
The housing market should also get additional support from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) dovish stance toward monetary policy. Traders overwhelmingly expect the central bank to cut its short-term cash rate at its August policy meeting.
That rate already stands at a 50-year low of 2.75 percent, but RBA Chief Glenn Stevens’ recent remarks show that he believes tame inflation affords the bank additional scope to provide even further easing. Inflation during the second quarter came in at 2.4 percent, just below the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 2 percent to 3 percent.
Westpac economists expect additional cuts will ultimately take the cash rate to a low of 2 percent by March of next year. Lower short-term rates could spur additional investment in housing and other risk assets, just as they’ve done in the US. And mortgage rates are already moving toward historically low levels.
The Roundup
Here’s when AE Portfolio Holdings will report their next sets of financial and operating numbers. Some have “confirmed” dates, while for others we’ve provided an “estimate.”
For most, this will cover the full fiscal year ending June 30, 2013. We’ve noted for others that report on a different schedule the period to which the announcement pertains.
Conservative Holdings
- Aberdeen Asia-Pacific Income Fund (NYSE: FAX)–N/A (fund, reports holdings on a quarterly basis)
- AGL Energy Ltd (ASX: AGK, OTC: AGLNF, ADR: AGLNY)–Aug. 21, 2013 (estimate)
- APA Group (ASX: APA, OTC: APAJF)–Aug. 21, 2013
- Australand Property Group Ltd (ASX: ALZ, OTC: AUAOF)–July 24, 2013 (2013 H1, confirmed)
- Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd (ASX: ANZ, OTC: ANEWF, ADR: ANZBY)–April 30, 2013 (FY 2013 H1, confirmed)
- Cardno Ltd (ASX: CDD, OTC: COLDF)–Aug. 13, 2013 (estimate)
- CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL, OTC: CMXHF, ADR: CMXHY)–Aug. 21, 2013 (estimate)
- Envestra Ltd (ASX: ENV, OTC: EVSRF)–Aug. 22, 2013 (estimate)
- GPT Group (ASX: GPT, OTC: GPTGF)–Aug. 12, 2013 (2013 H1, estimate)
- M2 Telecommunications Group Ltd (ASX: MTU, OTC: MTCZF)–Aug. 26, 2013 (estimate)
- Ramsay Health Care Ltd (ASX: RHC, OTC: RMSUF)–Aug. 22, 2013 (estimate)
- SMS Management & Technology Ltd (ASX: SMX, OTC: SMSUF)–Aug. 14, 2013 (estimate)
- Telstra Corp Ltd (ASX: TLS, OTC: TTRAF, ADR: TLSYY)–Aug. 8, 2013 (confirmed)
- Transurban Group (ASX: TCL, OTC: TRAUF)–Aug. 6, 2013 (estimate)
- Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES, OTC: WFAFF, ADR: WFAFY)–Aug. 15, 2013 (estimate)
Aggressive Holdings
- Amalgamated Holdings Ltd (ASX: AHD, OTC: None)–Aug. 22, 2013 (estimate)
- Ausdrill Ltd (ASX: ASL, OTC: AUSDF)–Aug. 28, 2013 (estimate)
- BHP Billiton Ltd (ASX: BHP, NYSE: BHP)–Aug. 21, 2013 (estimate)
- GrainCorp Ltd (ASX: GNC, OTC: GRCLF)–May 16, 2013 (FY 2013 H1, confirmed)
- Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN, OTC: MALRF)–Aug. 15, 2013 (estimate)
- Newcrest Mining Ltd (ASX: NCM, OTC: NCMGF, ADR: NCMGY)–Aug. 12, 2013 (estimate)
- Oil Search Ltd (ASX: OSH, OTC: OISHF, ADR: OISHY)–Aug. 12, 2013 (2013 H1, estimate)
- Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG, OTC: OGFGF, ADR: OGFGY)–Aug. 22, 2013 (estimate)
- Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO, NYSE: RIO)–Aug. 8, 2013 (2013 H1, confirmed)
- Spark Infrastructure Group (ASX: SKI, OTC: SFDPF)–Aug. 26, 2013 (2013 H1, estimate)
- Woodside Petroleum Ltd (ASX: WPL, OTC: WOPEF, ADR: WOPEY)–Aug. 21, 2013 (2013 H1, estimate)
- WorleyParsons Ltd (ASX: WOR, OTC: WYGPF, ADR: WYGPY)–Aug. 28, 2013 (estimate)
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