Australia’s Central Bank Cuts Rates to an All-Time Low
This week, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) finally delivered another rate cut, lowering its cash rate by 25 basis points, to 2.5 percent. The RBA’s latest move takes this key short-term rate to an all-time low, the eighth such cut since the central bank began easing back in November 2011. And the bond market is already anticipating another rate cut by Christmas.
In his official statement on monetary policy, RBA Governor Glenn Stevens noted that Australia’s economy continues to grow slightly below the country’s long-term annual trend of 3 percent, which the bank expects will continue in the near term. At the same time, inflation is expected to remain muted for the next year or two, thanks in part to moderating labor costs.
Meanwhile, the Australian dollar currently trades near USD0.91, down about 14 percent from its high in early January. However, the Aussie is up about 2.9 percent from its low earlier this week, following stronger-than-expected July trade data for China (more on that below).
Historically low interest rates along with a declining Australian dollar are the necessary prerequisite for Australia’s economy to find its footing now that the mining boom has peaked. But the question remains as to which sector will take the lead.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics’ (ABS) report on June retail turnover provided no inkling of a potential successor in this arena: Month-over-month growth in retail sales was flat versus economists’ consensus forecast of 0.4 percent. While ailing retailers welcomed the RBA’s rate cut, consumer confidence will have to be restored before spending can rise again.
Unfortunately, the unemployment rate remains near a four-year high, at 5.7 percent, while employment growth has been tepid the past few months. In fact, the ABS reported that employment fell by 10,200 jobs in July, well short of the consensus expectation of a pick-up of 5,000 new jobs. The labor force participation rate also dropped by two-tenths of a percentage point, to 65.1 percent.
But as we’ve noted in recent weeks, Australia’s housing market is the one obvious candidate to pick up the economy’s slack, particularly as prospective homeowners’ borrowing costs will presumably decline. Indeed, Australia’s largest mortgage broker, AFG, reported that it processed 25 percent more mortgages in July than a year ago.
And some analysts are already fretting that a property bubble could be one of the unintended consequences of an extended cycle of monetary easing. Even so, Australia’s housing market is only just beginning to rebound from last year’s modest trough, so such considerations remain largely academic for now. Housing credit is growing at a year-over-year pace of 4.6 percent, only moderately outpacing the growth in regular debt.
Still, Australia’s housing market never suffered the sort of massive deflation that afflicted many of its developed-world peers during the Great Recession, so it may not take much of a boost for prices to approach frothy levels again.
Then, of course, there’s China, which is Australia’s largest trading partner and a key factor in the country’s resource boom. After posting dismal results for June trade, the Middle Kingdom bounced back in July, with both imports and exports exceeding economists’ expectations by a wide margin. July exports increased 5.1 percent from a year ago versus a consensus forecast of 2 percent, while imports jumped 10.9 percent compared to the consensus of 1 percent.
In particular, iron ore imports surged to a record high of 73.1 million tonnes, up 17 percent from June. Iron ore is one of Australia’s primary exports to China, though some data suggested that shipments from Australia had slightly declined last month.
Less promising is the fact that China’s steel industry has lately balked at what it believes are unsustainably high prices for iron ore, which trades near USD131 per tonne, up from USD115 per tonne in mid-June. Of course, such prices are a function of strong demand for steel. And despite an anticipated slowdown in demand for steel during the second half of the year, iron ore demand is expected to remain stable, with only limited price declines.
The Roundup
Here’s when AE Portfolio Holdings will report their next sets of financial and operating numbers. Some have “confirmed” dates, while for others we’ve provided an “estimate.”
For most, this will cover the full fiscal year ending June 30, 2013. We’ve noted for others that report on a different schedule the period to which the announcement pertains.
Conservative Holdings
- Aberdeen Asia-Pacific Income Fund (NYSE: FAX)–N/A (fund, reports holdings on a quarterly basis)
- AGL Energy Ltd (ASX: AGK, OTC: AGLNF, ADR: AGLNY)–Aug. 28, 2013 (confirmed)
- APA Group (ASX: APA, OTC: APAJF)–Aug. 21, 2013 (confirmed)
- Australand Property Group Ltd (ASX: ALZ, OTC: AUAOF)–July 24, 2013 (2013 H1, confirmed)
- Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd (ASX: ANZ, OTC: ANEWF, ADR: ANZBY)–Oct. 29, 2013 (confirmed)
- Cardno Ltd (ASX: CDD, OTC: COLDF)–Aug. 20, 2013 (confirmed)
- CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL, OTC: CMXHF, ADR: CMXHY)–Aug. 14, 2013 (confirmed)
- Envestra Ltd (ASX: ENV, OTC: EVSRF)–Aug. 22, 2013 (estimate)
- GPT Group (ASX: GPT, OTC: GPTGF)–Aug. 12, 2013 (2013 H1, confirmed)
- M2 Telecommunications Group Ltd (ASX: MTU, OTC: MTCZF)–Aug. 26, 2013 (estimate)
- Ramsay Health Care Ltd (ASX: RHC, OTC: RMSUF)–Aug. 29, 2013 (estimate)
- SMS Management & Technology Ltd (ASX: SMX, OTC: SMSUF)–Aug. 15, 2013 (estimate)
- Telstra Corp Ltd (ASX: TLS, OTC: TTRAF, ADR: TLSYY)–Aug. 7, 2013 (confirmed)
- Transurban Group (ASX: TCL, OTC: TRAUF)–Aug. 1, 2013 (confirmed)
- Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES, OTC: WFAFF, ADR: WFAFY)–Aug. 15, 2013 (confirmed)
Aggressive Holdings
- Amalgamated Holdings Ltd (ASX: AHD, OTC: None)–Aug. 23, 2013 (estimate)
- Ausdrill Ltd (ASX: ASL, OTC: AUSDF)–Aug. 28, 2013 (confirmed)
- BHP Billiton Ltd (ASX: BHP, NYSE: BHP)–Aug. 20, 2013 (confirmed)
- GrainCorp Ltd (ASX: GNC, OTC: GRCLF)–Nov.15, 2013 (estimated)
- Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN, OTC: MALRF)–Aug. 16, 2013 (estimate)
- Newcrest Mining Ltd (ASX: NCM, OTC: NCMGF, ADR: NCMGY)–Aug. 12, 2013 (confirmed)
- Oil Search Ltd (ASX: OSH, OTC: OISHF, ADR: OISHY)–Aug. 20, 2013 (2013 H1, confirmed)
- Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG, OTC: OGFGF, ADR: OGFGY)–Aug. 22, 2013 (confirmed)
- Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO, NYSE: RIO)–Aug. 8, 2013 (2013 H1, confirmed)
- Spark Infrastructure Group (ASX: SKI, OTC: SFDPF)–Aug. 26, 2013 (2013 H1, confirmed)
- Woodside Petroleum Ltd (ASX: WPL, OTC: WOPEF, ADR: WOPEY)–Aug. 21, 2013 (2013 H1, confirmed)
- WorleyParsons Ltd (ASX: WOR, OTC: WYGPF, ADR: WYGPY)–Aug. 14, 2013 (confirmed)
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