The Economy’s Green Shoots
It has taken nearly five years for the economic “green shoots” that surfaced in 2009 to take hold. But we’re now seeing signs of green all around.
Here in the US, the unemployment rate has fallen to a four-year low. In the second quarter of 2013, home prices were up in nearly 90 percent of US cities, including most of the hardest-hit urban markets, and many regional real estate markets are at post-recession highs.
In Asia, Japan is on course to reverse more than a decade of deflation, and the country’s equity market has been one of the world’s top performers in the past year. Positive trade and manufacturing data out of China also indicate that country’s economy has most likely hit bottom.
The best news of all, though, is that Europe’s longest post-war recession appears to be coming to an end, with German industrial production recently rebounding. The pace of economic contraction is slowing even in Italy and Spain, and Eastern Europe has proven surprisingly resilient. The region’s exporters remain competitive, and policy makers are finally beginning to back off from draconian budget cuts that have sapped demand.
Meanwhile, central banks continue to irrigate their economies in the form of cheap liquidity. The US, Japan and China are all running aggressive stimulus programs, while most other central banks around the world are sticking to their easy money policies. Most recently, the Bank of England pledged to keep its benchmark interest rate and bond purchase program at current levels until UK unemployment falls to 7 percent. Australia’s central bank has also cut its benchmark interest rate to a new record low in order to spur growth.
Assuming there aren’t nasty surprises lurking, such as a debt crisis in China, the global economy should continue to improve, which is very good news for equities.
Harvesting Some Gains
While we think stocks are the best place to be, no single asset class or investment should dominate your holdings. So as autumn approaches, it might be a good time to harvest some gains. The S&P 500 is up nearly 20 percent so far this year—and an impressive 17 percent annualized during the past three years.
If you’re now heavier in stocks, consider lightening your load to your original target allocation. This applies not only to stocks overall, but to specific equities, ETFs and mutual funds that have shot up in the past year.
Danger still lurks in the bond market, given the potential for further increases in interest rates. So moving money into bonds isn’t obvious. Take the time to ascertain how vulnerable your bond holdings are to interest rate increases.
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