Higher Yields Don’t Dent Demand

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics released its updated Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading last week, reporting a seasonally adjusted 0.2 percent increase for July. On an unadjusted basis, prices were up by 2 percent over the trailing year.

The pre-1980s methodology showed a slightly higher increase of 0.24 percent for the month, taking the alternate 12-month reading up to 9.62 percent.

A slowing ascent in gasoline prices helped curtail the overall pace of inflation, although our gauge was slightly higher largely due to the heavier weighting on rents in the alternate index. In the sub-indexes, prices rose on housing, clothing, medical care, tobacco, and new vehicles.

But while inflation is up, the S&P 500 has declined by 2.2 percent since our last issue. Some mixed signals in global economic data have played a role in that decline, but spiking Treasury yields are the largest culprit. The 10-year Treasury recently spiked to 3 percent, its highest level in two years.

That uptick in yield has weighed on Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Index (NYSE: VIG) and Vanguard Global ex-US Real Estate (NYSE: VNQI).

In the case of VIG, the obvious concern is that rising Treasury yields will lure capital away from dividend stocks and into less risky Treasury bonds. With the 12-month yield on the fund currently running at 2.1 percent versus 2.8 percent on the 10-year, that would seem to be a legitimate concern.

But with the Federal Reserve still toeing the line on its asset purchases, I suspect that concern is largely overblown at this point, although we will likely continue to see a spike in yields going forward. For now, the yield on VIG is rising faster than that on the 10-year bond and well outpacing the shorter-term notes.

At the same time, second quarter earnings have been overwhelmingly positive for the majority of the fund’s 147 holdings. So for now, I see little reason for worry.

The decline in VNQI is a bit more counterintuitive, since the spike in yields would affect US-based real estate investment trusts (REIT) but is largely immaterial for foreign REITs. However, since the fund is listed on an American exchange, it’s being lumped together with all the other real estate assets.

That’s actually beneficial for investors who are paying attention, because it’s resulted in the fund trading at a slight discount to the value of its assets versus the average premium 0.6 percent it usually commands. So while the fund is down 1.6 percent on a price basis year-to-date, based on its net asset value it’s down only 0.5 percent, showing that the market perception of the fund is out of synch with the value of its holdings.

As a result of that disconnect between price and value, the fund is currently offering an extremely attractive 5.9 percent yield on assets spanning 35 countries around the world.

Still offering attractive income streams despite the occasional spikes in bond yields, Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Index and Vanguard Global ex-US Real Estate remain buys under 76 and 63, respectively.


In contrast, our commodity-focused holdings are generally doing quite well, with the Thrive Portfolio’s iShares S&P Global Materials (NYSE: MXI) up 3.5 percent and the Survive Portfolio’s GreenHaven Continuous Commodity Index (NYSE: GCC) having gained 2 percent over the trailing month.

Stabilizing trade data out of China, slow but steady growth in the US and the emergence of Europe from recession have boosted many commodity prices. So far in August, copper prices have risen from $3.04 per pound to $3.30, while iron ore and aluminum have also staged rallies.

Increases of similar magnitude can be seen in soft commodities as well with wheat, rice and coffee all up, although there have been some pockets of weakness as better-than-expected weather has boosted yield estimates.

I look for the global economy to continue to improve in the coming months, particularly as Europe backs off its focus on austerity and begins looking for ways to stimulate the demand side of the regional economy.

The more conservative GreenHaven Continuous Commodity Index continues to rate a buy up to 32, while the more leveraged iShares S&P Global Materials, which focuses on producers, is a buy up to 65.

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