No Hedging on These Energy Winners
Hedge funds may be “for suckers,” as Bloomberg Businessweek recently claimed in a memorably illustrated cover story. Then again, the fact that they returned less than 2 percent in the first half of the year, significantly trailing the S&P 500, may prove only that they’re for rich people who don’t mind hedging a market trend.
The biggest hedge funds have enviable long-term performance track records and employ platoons of experienced and extremely well-paid analysts. So it’s instructive to note what these top performers have been buying in the similarly lagging energy sector, while stipulating that no one should follow their example blindly.
And, of course, not all of the hedge funds have done poorly. Appaloosa Management, run by notable equity bull David Tepper, returned 17 percent in the first half, three percentage points above the S&P. During the second quarter, Appaloosa took a new position in our Growth Portfolio holding Chicago Bridge and Iron (NYSE: CBI), buying more than 1.5 million shares with a current value of $91million. Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-B), which started buying CBI in the first quarter, added to its stake as well. As of June 30 it owned 3 million shares of the energy infrastructure builder.
Steven Cohen’s SAC Capital bought several of the energy stocks in our portfolios this spring despite a government insider trading probe that recently led to a criminal indictment of the prominent hedge fund. SAC increased its stake in Aggressive Portfolio holding Continental Resources (NYSE: CLR) nearly 10-fold during the second quarter, accumulating a $150 million position. It also more than doubled its position in Growth Portfolio mainstay Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB) to $122 million, boosted a token stake in Conservative Portfolio holding Whiting Petroleum (NYSE: WLL) to a major $94 million position and added significantly to its stake in Growth Portfolio Best Buy EOG Resources (NYSE: EOG) as well. We’ll give SAC the benefit of the doubt in assuming such ardor for oil drillers is the result of painstaking fundamental research rather than a hot tip.
Ken Griffin’s Citadel, meanwhile, has accumulated a $151 million stake in Growth Portfolio holding EQT (NYSE: EQT), after more than doubling its stake during the second quarter.
During the same quarter, Dan Loeb’s Third Point initiated a stake in Aggressive Portfolio holding Marathon Petroleum (NYSE: MPC), buying 1.25 million shares worth more than $92 million at the current price.
Other exceptionally successful fund managers stocked up on energy holdings we don’t currently recommend. Notably, JANA Partners bought more than 5 million shares of Oil States International (NYSE: OIS) to take a 9 percent activist stake in the oilfield services provider. Oil States subsequently acceded to the demand of JANA and David Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital by announcing plans to spin off its worker housing business as a real estate investment trust.
Those who believe in Einhorn’s strong long-term performance may also want to check out WPX Energy (NYSE: WPX), a shale driller in which Greenlight opened a $50 million position during the second quarter. WPX recently reported a 12 percent year-over-year production decline but posted big gains in the Bakken and Marcellus shales.
The data above comes courtesy of filings research by Briefing.com, a market news service I heartily recommend. A different service focused exclusively on hedge funds, Insider Monkey, recently ranked all energy stocks by the sheer number of hedge funds reporting holdings, and on that basis Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC) topped the list. It’s worth noting that shares of the domestic natural gas driller set a record high today after a 25 percent surge year-to-date.
We would be happy if some of our holdings that made the list delivered similarly. Growth Portfolio pick Occidental Petroleum (NYSE: OXY) placed second on Insider Monkey’s list, followed by oil services giants Schlumberger and Halliburton (NYSE: HAL).
EOG also made the top 10. Hedge funds have been known to nurse itchy trigger fingers, so their heavy involvement in the stock can certainly mean extra volatility. But for the moment many of these picks are working out well for them, and even better for us over a much longer holding period. And we’re not too worried yet that some of the savviest investors around share our optimism.
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