As is typical of the supply-demand balance during a resource boom, global supply of iron ore lagged demand, particularly from fast-growing countries such as China, and that spurred mining companies in resource-rich countries such as Australia to deploy an extraordinary amount of capital to keep pace. Now, of course, Australia’s resource boom is peaking, and though China’s economy is still growing at an enviable rate, at least compared to those in the developed world, it’s nonetheless decelerating.

Given their proximity to one another, China is Australia’s largest trading partner, accounting for 20.3 percent, or AUD125.2 billion, of two-way trade in goods and services and a significant 26.3 percent, or AUD78.9 billion, of the country’s total exports last year. Among Australia’s abundance of resources, iron ore is by far the country’s leading principal export, accounting for 18.2 percent, or AUD54.7 billion, of total exports last year. And China consumed 70.6 percent, or AUD38.6 billion, of Australia’s total exports of iron ore.

Although rising iron ore production amid a slackening global economy means the commodity will be in a glut for the next several years, the question is to what extent supply will exceed demand. The most dramatic projection comes courtesy of UBS AG, which estimates a surplus of 150.7 million metric tons in 2014.

While there’s widespread agreement among analysts that iron ore will be in record supply, there’s considerable variance in their estimates. For instance, Goldman Sachs forecasts excess supply of 82 million metric tons, compared with surplus estimates of 27 million metric tons from Deutsche Bank AG and 8.8 million metric tons from Morgan Stanley. According to the latter, Australia will account for about 66 percent of production gains next year.

But there are a few factors that could cause these forecasts to come undone. For one, Chinese demand for iron ore could prove more resilient than expected. With inventories of iron ore that remain 28 percent lower than a year ago, China is in the midst of a restocking of the commodity as the result of strong demand from the construction sector, along with demand from the automobile, railroad, and appliance industries. Indeed, steel production is up 9.2 percent year to date.

Meanwhile, China’s July trade data surprised many economists, with imports rising 10.9 percent from a year ago, and iron ore purchases jumping 17 percent from June, to a record high of 62.3 million metric tons. Of course, such short-term data are volatile, but some analysts expect this trend could continue in the near to medium term. For example, Reuters reported that iron ore exports to China from Australia’s Port Hedland, which handles roughly one-fifth of the global seaborne market for the raw material, climbed 9 percent month over month in August. That suggests the possibility that August was another big month for Australia’s iron ore exports.

Over the next few years, projected supply could also end up being lower than expected, as companies cancel projects and delay or curtail production, especially if prices fall too sharply. Even so, many Australian mines enjoy costs of production well below prevailing prices, which should help insulate them at least somewhat from a protracted price drop.

At the same time, weakness in the Australian dollar, which is among the worst performing currencies this year, should help the country compete more effectively against its peers in the global market. The Aussie currently trades near USD0.91, down nearly 14.2 percent from its year-to-date high of USD1.06. And economists expect the currency to decline even further as the country’s central bank continues on a rate-cutting cycle, while the US Federal Reserve appears poised to begin reining in some of its extraordinary stimulus. According to a Bloomberg survey of economists, the consensus forecast is for the Aussie to bottom at USD0.86 in 2016.

To be sure, even this more balanced assessment of what could happen to Australia’s iron ore exports in the years ahead isn’t exactly fodder for bullish sentiment. But it does underscore the fact that markets can adjust to challenging circumstances in a manner that undermines the more dire forecasts.

The Roundup

Here’s when AE Portfolio Holdings will report their next sets of financial and operating numbers. Some have “confirmed” dates, while for others we’ve provided an “estimate.”

For most, this will cover the full fiscal year ending June 30, 2013. We’ve noted for others that report on a different schedule the period to which the announcement pertains.

Conservative Holdings

• Aberdeen Asia-Pacific Income Fund (NYSE: FAX)–N/A (fund, reports holdings on a quarterly basis)
• AGL Energy Ltd (ASX: AGK, OTC: AGLNF, ADR: AGLNY)–Aug. 28, 2013 (confirmed)
• APA Group (ASX: APA, OTC: APAJF)–Aug. 30 Down Under Digest
• Australand Property Group Ltd (ASX: ALZ, OTC: AUAOF)–Aug. 15 Down Under Digest
• Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd (ASX: ANZ, OTC: ANEWF, ADR: ANZBY)–August “In Focus”
• Cardno Ltd (ASX: CDD, OTC: COLDF)–Aug. 20, 2013 (confirmed)
• CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL, OTC: CMXHF, ADR: CMXHY)–August Portfolio Update
• Envestra Ltd (ASX: ENV, OTC: EVSRF)–Aug. 22, 2013 (confirmed)
• GPT Group (ASX: GPT, OTC: GPTGF)–August Portfolio Update
• M2 Telecommunications Group Ltd (ASX: MTU, OTC: MTCZF)–Aug. 26, 2013 (confirmed)
• Ramsay Health Care Ltd (ASX: RHC, OTC: RMSUF)–Aug. 29, 2013 (confirmed)
• SMS Management & Technology Ltd (ASX: SMX, OTC: SMSUF)–Aug. 21, 2013 (confirmed)
• Telstra Corp Ltd (ASX: TLS, OTC: TTRAF, ADR: TLSYY)–August Portfolio Update
• Transurban Group (ASX: TCL, OTC: TRAUF)–August “Sector Spotlight”
• Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES, OTC: WFAFF, ADR: WFAFY)–August Portfolio Update

Aggressive Holdings

• Amalgamated Holdings Ltd (ASX: AHD, OTC: None)–Aug. 22, 2013 (confirmed)
• Ausdrill Ltd (ASX: ASL, OTC: AUSDF)–Aug. 28, 2013 (confirmed)
• BHP Billiton Ltd (ASX: BHP, NYSE: BHP)–Aug. 20, 2013 (confirmed)
• GrainCorp Ltd (ASX: GNC, OTC: GRCLF)–Nov. 15, 2013 (estimated)
• Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN, OTC: MALRF)–August Portfolio Update
• Newcrest Mining Ltd (ASX: NCM, OTC: NCMGF, ADR: NCMGY)–Aug. 12, 2013 (confirmed)
• Oil Search Ltd (ASX: OSH, OTC: OISHF, ADR: OISHY)–Aug. 20, 2013 (2013 H1, confirmed)
• Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG, OTC: OGFGF, ADR: OGFGY)–Aug. 22, 2013 (confirmed)
• Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO, NYSE: RIO)–August Portfolio Update
• Spark Infrastructure Group (ASX: SKI, OTC: SFDPF)–Aug. 26, 2013 (2013 H1, confirmed)
• Woodside Petroleum Ltd (ASX: WPL, OTC: WOPEF, ADR: WOPEY)–Aug. 21, 2013 (2013 H1, confirmed)
• WorleyParsons Ltd (ASX: WOR, OTC: WYGPF, ADR: WYGPY)–August Portfolio Update