Australians Upbeat as Election Finally Concludes
Australia’s economy may be growing at a rate slightly below its long-term trend, but this past week’s federal elections prompted upbeat sentiment on the part of consumers and businesses alike. Tony Abbott’s Liberal-National Coalition, which had served as the conservative opposition to the ruling center-left Labor Party since late 2007, defeated Kevin Rudd’s Labor Party at the polls last Saturday, winning a clear majority of seats in the House of Representatives and a plurality in the Senate.
In order to assemble a slim majority in the Senate, however, the Liberal-Nationals will have to broker deals with a half-dozen newly elected minor-party senators, including one political neophyte representing the memorably named Australian Motoring Enthusiast Party. Nevertheless, the politics of this sub-group seem generally sympathetic to the center-right Coalition.
Although most of the survey underpinning the Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment took place prior to the election’s outcome, opinion polling data showed the Liberal-Nationals with a clear lead in the final week heading into the election. And consumer sentiment may have been impacted not only by the anticipated result of the election, but also by simple relief from the extended period of heightened drama and uncertainty resulting from the unprecedented length of the election cycle.
In contrast to the now seemingly endless presidential election cycle in the US, most Australian federal elections are scheduled by the ruling party about six weeks to eight weeks out. But former Prime Minister Julia Gillard called for elections back in late January to help shore up her position within her party, as well as Labor’s standing among the electorate.
But internal divisions within Labor along with flagging poll numbers led to a leadership spill in late June, during which Labor Party members ousted Gillard in favor of backbencher Kevin Rudd, who himself had suffered a similar dismissal, at Gillard’s hand, from the prime ministership almost exactly three years earlier.
With an end to all of this finally within sight, the Index of Consumer Sentiment rose 4.7 percent month over month, to 110.6. According to Westpac, that’s the highest number since December 2010. Over the past five years, the index has averaged 102.9, with the high of 121.4 occurring in October 2009.
As might be expected, sentiment also shifted among adherents of each of the two major parties as the election drew nearer to its close. Confidence among Coalition voters jumped 19.1 percent, while it dropped 10.3 percent among Labor’s voters. Although that suggests a strong forward-looking component, under normal circumstances surveys of sentiment tend to reflect perceptions of the recent past.
In this case, Westpac notes that the index is now up 13.8 percent since the Reserve Bank of Australia initiated its current rate-cutting cycle back in November 2011. That suggests that the cumulative cuts of 2.25 percentage points in the central bank’s cash rate are finally flowing through to lower rates for consumers in areas such as mortgage lending. Meanwhile, the Australian stock market is currently trading at a five-year high, with the S&P/ASX 200 up 12.6 percent on a price basis since hitting a low in late June.
However, unemployment expectations remain a concern amid a slowing economy, though they improved by 6.6 percent from a month ago. This anxiety was underscored by a drop in employment of 10,800 jobs in August, a nearly opposite result from the consensus forecast that 10,000 new jobs would be created last month. As such, the unemployment rate ticked up one-tenth of a percentage point, to 5.8 percent, in line with forecasts, while the labor force participation rate declined by one-tenth of a percentage point, to 65 percent, falling short of expectations by two-tenths of a percentage point.
Over the past five years, the pace of job creation has averaged 11,900 new jobs per month, though on a year-to-date basis that average has fallen to 7,700 new jobs per month. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is just below its high of 5.9 percent in mid-2009, as the global economy was still emerging from the Great Recession. So while households are optimistic about the direction of the general economy, they remain understandably worried about their individual prospects. And the deteriorating employment numbers should compel the RBA to maintain its easing bias for the near to medium term.
As the Australian economy attempts to find its footing in non-resource arenas, one area we’ve expected to get a boost is the housing market and its attendant industries, especially given an environment of historically low interest rates. The consumer sentiment survey lends some support to this notion, with the opinion that “now is a good time to buy a house” at its highest level since August 2009.
On the business front, incoming Prime Minister Tony Abbott has pledged to scrap the carbon tax as well as the Minerals Resource Rent Tax (MRRT), a levy on the super-profits of the largest mining companies. Assuming the Coalition is able to accomplish these objectives, that along with a declining Australian dollar should be especially helpful to firms that operate in the resource sector. For instance, JP Morgan analysts estimate that the removal of these taxes should boost the net present values of Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO, NYSE: RIO) and BHP Billiton Ltd (ASX: BHP, NYSE: BHP) by 6 percent and 3 percent, respectively.
Given such expectations, the anticipated outcome of the election also caused a sharp increase in National Australia Bank’s Business Confidence Index, which rose to its highest level since May 2011. The current reading of the index is 6, which compares favorably with a trailing five-year average of 1.2, though it’s still below the average of 7.9 during the five-year period preceding the global downturn.
Although business conditions and capacity utilization remain poor, firms were cheered both by an end to electoral uncertainty, as well as their expectation that the Coalition’s policymaking will be more propitious for enterprise. Of course, confidence could wane again in light of the continuing weakness of business conditions, along with the gradual pace of the political process that’s the hallmark of representative democracies.
But overall, assuming the Coalition can at least rescind the carbon tax and the MRRT, their ascendance should be a net positive for investors, particularly those in the resource space.
The Roundup
Here’s when AE Portfolio Holdings will report their next sets of financial and operating numbers. Some have “confirmed” dates, while for others we’ve provided an “estimate.”
For most, this will cover the full fiscal year ending June 30, 2013. We’ve noted for others that report on a different schedule the period to which the announcement pertains.
Conservative Holdings
- Aberdeen Asia-Pacific Income Fund (NYSE: FAX)–N/A (fund, reports holdings on a quarterly basis)
- AGL Energy Ltd (ASX: AGK, OTC: AGLNF, ADR: AGLNY)–Aug. 28, 2013 (confirmed)
- APA Group (ASX: APA, OTC: APAJF)–Aug. 30 Down Under Digest
- Australand Property Group Ltd (ASX: ALZ, OTC: AUAOF)–Aug. 15 Down Under Digest
- Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd (ASX: ANZ, OTC: ANEWF, ADR: ANZBY)–August “In Focus”
- Cardno Ltd (ASX: CDD, OTC: COLDF)–Aug. 20, 2013 (confirmed)
- CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL, OTC: CMXHF, ADR: CMXHY)–August Portfolio Update
- Envestra Ltd (ASX: ENV, OTC: EVSRF)–Aug. 22, 2013 (confirmed)
- GPT Group (ASX: GPT, OTC: GPTGF)–August Portfolio Update
- M2 Telecommunications Group Ltd (ASX: MTU, OTC: MTCZF)–Aug. 26, 2013 (confirmed)
- Ramsay Health Care Ltd (ASX: RHC, OTC: RMSUF)–Aug. 29, 2013 (confirmed)
- SMS Management & Technology Ltd (ASX: SMX, OTC: SMSUF)–Aug. 21, 2013 (confirmed)
- Telstra Corp Ltd (ASX: TLS, OTC: TTRAF, ADR: TLSYY)–August Portfolio Update
- Transurban Group (ASX: TCL, OTC: TRAUF)–August “Sector Spotlight”
- Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES, OTC: WFAFF, ADR: WFAFY)–August Portfolio Update
Aggressive Holdings
- Amalgamated Holdings Ltd (ASX: AHD, OTC: None)–Aug. 22, 2013 (confirmed)
- Ausdrill Ltd (ASX: ASL, OTC: AUSDF)–Aug. 28, 2013 (confirmed)
- BHP Billiton Ltd (ASX: BHP, NYSE: BHP)–Aug. 20, 2013 (confirmed)
- GrainCorp Ltd (ASX: GNC, OTC: GRCLF)–Nov. 15, 2013 (estimated)
- Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN, OTC: MALRF)–August Portfolio Update
- Newcrest Mining Ltd (ASX: NCM, OTC: NCMGF, ADR: NCMGY)–Aug. 12, 2013 (confirmed)
- Oil Search Ltd (ASX: OSH, OTC: OISHF, ADR: OISHY)–Aug. 20, 2013 (2013 H1, confirmed)
- Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG, OTC: OGFGF, ADR: OGFGY)–Aug. 22, 2013 (confirmed)
- Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO, NYSE: RIO)–August Portfolio Update
- Spark Infrastructure Group (ASX: SKI, OTC: SFDPF)–Aug. 26, 2013 (2013 H1, confirmed)
- Woodside Petroleum Ltd (ASX: WPL, OTC: WOPEF, ADR: WOPEY)–Aug. 21, 2013 (2013 H1, confirmed)
- WorleyParsons Ltd (ASX: WOR, OTC: WYGPF, ADR: WYGPY)–August Portfolio Update
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