Food for Thought
Are your paying more for groceries? If yes, you are not alone. Since 2006, US food prices are up a total of 20 percent, significantly more than the 14 percent rise in overall inflation. In fact, the food category has seen the third-highest price increases, after energy and healthcare.
Behind the rise in food prices has been severe weather, which depressed the output of key commodities (corn, wheat, soybeans), and higher US exports to Southeast Asia, Africa and South America. But it also has to do with more Americans opting for higher-priced organic and all-natural foods.
All this has been good news for food producers, especially since commodity prices have started to decline in the past two years but food retail prices remain at the higher levels.
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (NYSE: ADM), SYSCO Corp (NYSE: SYY) and Kroger (NYSE: KR) have all recently reported annual earnings growth in the high single-digits thanks to these trends. Certain restaurant stocks, such as Domino’s Pizza (NYSE: DPZ), have fared even better, reporting 10 percent growth in sales as well as earnings.
Ordering a PBJ
One way to benefit from rising food prices, now and in the future, is through PowerShares Dynamic Food & Beverage (NYSE: PBJ). This Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) holds a basket of 33 big stocks in the food and beverage industry—most of which can be classified as consumer staples—as well as a scattering of major restaurants.
Overall, PBJ’s companies have seen sales growth of about 3 percent annually the past five years. But earnings are up an average of 10 percent or more, due to cost-cutting and lower commodity prices. And the stock valuations are reasonable. Based on 2013 earnings estimates, the overall portfolio is currently trading at a slight discount to the consumer-staples sector, and at just 0.4 times sales.
Food-and-beverage stocks have had a strong run since 2009, but they should continue to benefit from improvement in the US economy. Also, many of the companies held by PBJ have substantial operations abroad. Europe, which is showing signs of recovery from its economic slump, should see higher food and beverage spending in the coming year. And in the emerging markets, increases in discretionary income should continue to provide a tailwind.
PowerShares relies on an “Intellidex” index to act as the fund’s benchmark, whereby stocks are selected based on specific capital appreciation and valuation criteria. Each position then receives an equal weight in the portfolio, which is rebalanced quarterly. Due to this equal weighting, there’s no bias toward large or small stocks; the market cap of the typical holding averages out to $7 billion, in the midsize range.
While there are a number of agriculture- related ETFs, including Market Vectors Agribusiness (NYSE: MOO), PBJ is the only ETF to focus exclusively on the food industry. And its expense ratio of 0.63 percent is about average.
PBJ is a relatively defensive stock ETF because it holds mostly consumer staples, things people buy regardless of the economy. Still, a recession here in the US or a worsening outlook for Europe is a risk. At this point, though, neither of these scenarios seems likely.
PBJ should continue to perform well as the economic outlook here and abroad improves, and it also offers a long-term hedge against rising commodity and food prices.
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