Weeding Around the Roses
At the same time, we’re aware that no one has an infinite reserve of sidelined cash to deploy. Financial resources are as finite as those of hydrocarbons, so in a way every new pick we make dilutes the strength of our other recommendations.
With that in mind, and given the significant updraft of the recent weeks, we’re taking the opportunity to prune some non-core names from the portfolios. In one case, we’re eager to cash in a big gain. In others, the point is to concentrate your resources and ours on the ideas that are working best and have the potential to work even better.
The big winner we’re eager to unload is US Silica (NYSE: SLCA), which has returned 40 percent in its 16-plus months in the Aggressive Portfolio, including the 23-percent gain over the last three months. US Silica makes the sand-based mix of chemicals used for hydraulic fracturing, and as the technology becomes more widespread and well established, the barriers to entry for competitors are dropping.
Sponsor GGC Opportunity Fund Management retains a one-third stake and in the past has proven prone to making secondary offerings near current levels. At the current share price, we would rather own the large, well-diversified oilfield services leader and Growth Portfolio Best Buy Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB).
And if you’re looking for an ancillary play on the development of unconventional US deposits, we think oil tanker railcar maker American Railcar Industries (Nasdaq: ARII) is the better Aggressive Portfolio value right now. Sell SLCA.
Pacific Drilling (NYSE: PACD) is leaving the Aggressive Portfolio as well after a 9 percent return over 19 months. The niche ultradeepwater rig operator shows promise, but not as much as industry leader and Aggressive Portfolio Best Buy Seadrill (NYSE: SDRL), which is safer, has more than doubled PACD’s return over the last 12 months and offers a juicy yield approaching 8 percent to boot. Sell PACD.
Moving over to the Growth Portfolio, rig supplier Ensco (NYSE: ESV) has produced minimal returns and also suffers by comparison with Seadrill. Sell ESV.
Also in Growth, World Fuel Services (NYSE: INT) is a niche fuel logistics player that, like ESV, hasn’t worked out but also hasn’t hurt us. We’d rather see you in First Solar (NYSE: FSLR), which has returned 9 percent since we picked it a month ago, or Chicago Bridge & Iron (NYSE: CBI), which is up 12 percent in six months. And of course any of the Best Buys or the two new picks added to the portfolio today would work better too. Sell INT.
Over in the Conservative Portfolio we’re replacing Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (NYSE: KMP), which has nearly doubled our money in not quite five years, with its general partner Kinder Morgan (NYSE: KMI), which is not an MLP itself but is poised to capture a growing share of KMP’s distribution growth in the coming years. Of course, MLPs are most tax-efficient when passed on to heirs, and if you’re holding a position for as long as we have or even for less time there is no reason to sell now and incur a hefty tax bill. But we’re switching to KMI to emphasize that it’s a better destination for new money now. Sell KMP if taxes are not an obstacle and buy KMI below $42.
We are also taking this opportunity to move Helmerich & Payne (NYSE: HP) and Whiting Petroleum (NYSE: WLL) from the Conservative to the Growth portfolio. These wintertime picks have performed solidly to date, but their exposure to commodity price risk makes them better fits for the Growth basket.
Finally, leading Marcellus growth play and Growth Portfolio winner Cabot Oil &Gas (NYSE: COG) has been acting squirrelly since topping out at an all-time high near $40 in late August, and is no longer a Best Buy. Fellow Marcellus champion EQT (NYSE: EQT) inherits that mantle as the beneficiary of the recent uplift in the prices of natural gas liquids. COG remains a buy below $42.50, but EQT’s a better one below the newly raised target of $95.
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