The Bank of Canada vs. the Minister of Finance
The Bank of Canada’s (BoC) approach to monetary policy may have just gotten more complicated. Although the central bank is nominally independent from the government, that doesn’t mean that the human beings that run such an institution aren’t susceptible to certain forms of lobbying.
In an interview last weekend, Canada’s Finance Minister Jim Flaherty suggested that the BoC could feel pressure to raise short-term rates later this year if the US Federal Reserve continues to taper its extraordinary stimulus. Mr. Flaherty also cited reports from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) that argued that the central bank should hike rates.
The finance minister is on record as being opposed to the Fed’s so-called quantitative easing, so it’s likely that such monetary conservatism also extends to the BoC’s interest rate policy. After all, Mr. Flaherty’s comments offer a stark contrast to the bank’s recent adoption of what is essentially a neutral stance toward interest rates.
The BoC’s overnight rate has been at 1 percent since late 2010, the longest such pause since the 1950s. Although the bank had been among the first of its developed-world peers to take a hawkish stance toward future rate hikes, it finally abandoned this upward bias in October.
Mr. Flaherty’s remarks may ultimately yield nothing. But they certainly sparked interest among bond traders, especially since Mr. Flaherty is the one who appointed current BoC Governor Stephen Poloz. BoC governors are appointed to seven-year terms, though they can be dismissed by the government before their full term is up. And if there’s a profound disagreement between the government and the central bank, the finance minister can issue written instructions to the BoC, though the government has never exercised this option.
While the government has these hard checks on the bank’s power, Mr. Flaherty could employ softer forms of lobbying to influence the bank’s policymaking. For instance, prior to helming the central bank, Mr. Poloz teamed with Mr. Flaherty to help engineer the country’s auto bailout during the downturn. So presumably they have some sort of rapport with one another, and that relationship could exert a subtle influence on the bank’s policymaking.
For now, Mr. Poloz remains narrowly focused on the BoC’s inflation-targeting mandate. Though he did not respond directly to Mr. Flaherty’s remarks, he reiterated that the bank’s policymaking is dependent upon a sustained improvement in economic data, and that he intends to hold the overnight rate at its current level until then.
Of particular concern to Mr. Poloz is the fact that inflation, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI), has been below the bank’s 2 percent target for 19 consecutive months. In the two most recent readings, in fact, the CPI actually came in below 1 percent. That suggests that even after several years of highly accommodative monetary policy, the threat of deflation has yet to be fully vanquished.
While central banks are usually able to rein in inflation quite effectively, a deflationary spiral can quickly get out of control. To forestall that possibility, the BoC’s current stance does not rule out another rate cut should the economy weaken further.
But even here, Mr. Poloz is in a tricky situation. Canadian consumers are overleveraged and the housing market is overvalued, so a rate cut could contribute toward an expanding bubble. Meanwhile, a rate hike would hit those same debt-burdened consumers hard, while also possibly undermining business investment, which remains tepid.
Despite Mr. Flaherty’s wishes, that means the bank will likely maintain its overnight rate at the current level for the medium term, while using hints of another rate cut to influence financial markets.
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