Where Next for the Shale Revolution?

In this issue:

 The US energy revival has changed the world, but so far mostly by limiting our appetite for imported crude oil. Still to come are massive exports of US fuel in the form of liquefied petroleum gas and liquefied natural gas. And somewhere beyond that looms the prospect of the advanced drilling techniques pioneered in the US spreading to shale formations around the world. Australia doesn’t have the biggest such reserves; they’re estimated at a quarter of Russia’s. But it does have the rule of law and a free market in mineral rights, two advantages Russia mostly lacks. So Australia looks like the next beneficiary of the shale boom, and in this issue’s lead story Robert analyzes its prospects and previews the players likely to drive the process.

One of the early birds, the US explorer Magnum Hunter Resources (NYSE: MHR), also happens to be one of the hottest names on Wall Street, as energy stocks rebound from their early-2014 weakness. We look at the factors behind the improving sentiment and the stocks making the biggest moves at the moment.

We also have a portfolio update on Kinder Morgan (NYSE: KMI), the beaten up Conservative Portfolio holding that recently reported improved quarterly results. On the conference call, the billionaire founder challenged his critics to keep helping him buy shares cheaply. We would be happier if KMI were to make up for lost time after last year’s disappointing performance and force the boss to pay up.

As always, we remain on the lookout for bargains that haven’t yet received their due. Happy hunting.

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Commodity Update

The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained a bit of strength over the past two weeks, trading Tuesday at $94.99 per barrel, up $1.12/bbl from two weeks ago. Brent fell slightly to $106.89, a decline of $0.54/bbl from our previous issue. The cold weather continues to be a factor in the price of natural gas, with the front-month contract for natural gas trading Tuesday at $4.43/MMBtu, up a dime from two weeks ago. The Brent-WTI spread decreased to $11.90/bbl from two weeks ago, a decline over the past two weeks of $1.66.

In Other News
  • Secretary of State John Kerry reiterated that the US would not be pushed into hurrying a decision on the Keystone XL pipeline. Meanwhile, the southern leg of the Keystone Pipeline is scheduled to begin shipping oil this week from Cushing, Okla., to Houston.

  • Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS) issued a surprise earnings warning, blamed in part on Shell’s troubled Arctic drilling program.

  • According to Magnum Hunter Resources (NYSE: MHR), Australia has the best shale gas prospects outside North America. More on this in the story below.

  • With potential implications for other Permian Basin producers, Apache (NYSE: APA) warned that severe winter weather adversely impacted output in Q4.

  • Germany’s new energy minister promised to address the issue of backup electricity generation required to keep the grid stable as intermittent supplies continue to be added.

  • Natural gas isn’t the only energy commodity driven higher by extreme cold. Propane and heating oil are both in short supply, and prices are surging.


Stock Talk

Walter T

Walter T

Have you thought of covering oil trusts? I would be interested to know your thoughts on ROYT due to California’s ban on “fracking”. It was been hit hard after the Governor signed the legislation.

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

I honestly haven’t given the trusts much thought since dumping the ones that were holdovers in our portfolios from the prior management team. They’ve tended to be sold to yield-hungry investors by companies that knew they were dealing with unsophisiticated counterparties while peddling perhaps not their best acreage at top-shelf valuations. The risk with these is through the roof, and I’d rather hunt for bargains elsewhere.

Walter T

Walter T

Thank you for your response. It gives me something to think about.

Ken S.

Ken Stephan

SDRL is down nearly 25% over the last 3 months. Is it setting up as a buy at these levels (around $36.00), or if not, when & where would you buy?

Robert Rapier

Robert Rapier

Ken, we do think SDRL is a bargain at this level; in fact we have it rated a Best Buy in our Aggressive Portfolio.

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

Yes, it’s a buy and an excellent value at these levels in my opinion.

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