The Earnings Picture

We’ve recently upgraded our websites and added more robust portfolio functionality.

On the Portfolio page, you’ll notice that you now have the ability to create your own watch list, which you can edit via the “Edit My Watch List” button located just above the portfolio tables. You’ll also notice that a copy button has been added which allows you to copy the table data and paste it into a Microsoft Excel workbook. Otherwise, you can still export the table into a .csv file.

Most importantly, you’ll find that we’ve added a new ranking system to our Survive and Thrive portfolios.

Each holding in the two portfolios has been assigned a numerical rank, currently running from 1 thru 11, with “1” being best. The ranking is based on our short- and intermediate-term performance outlooks.

Subscribers often ask what they should buy at any given point in time. Hence our ranking system. If you’re allocating fresh money to our portfolio holdings, you should begin with the best ranked stock. From there you can work your way through the list, taking new positions in names you don’t currently hold or adding to existing positions.

The usual caveat continues to apply: Any stock trading above our buy limit should be considered a hold until we either increase our buy target our recommend that the stock be sold.

Earnings Updates

Textainer Group (NYSE: TGH) has reported that its revenue grew by 8 percent year-over-year in the fourth quarter, reaching $137.5 million, while full-year revenue was up 8.6 percent at $529 million. Despite that revenue growth, profits were down as adjusted earnings per share (EPS) fell by 26.2 percent quarter-over-quarter to $0.76 while the full-year result was down 20 percent to $3.08.

The company largely fell victim to its own growth last year, as the greatest drag on profits were higher depreciation expense on the larger owned fleet and higher debt expense as a result of loans used to finance its expansion. Average fleet utilization also declined 2.8 percent over the course of 2013, down to 94.5 percent, largely because of a 9.6 percent expansion in the container fleet’s size.

Last year’s focus on growth at the expense of profit doesn’t appear to have been misguided, though. Seaborne trade is expected to grow by about 6 percent in 2014 and the prices of new and second-hand ships have been on the rise for nearly a year, largely in expectation of that recovery. Imports into Northern Europe alone are expected to grow by as much as 16 percent, thanks to the region’s economic recovery, with Mediterranean imports forecasted to be up by 9 percent.

Because of that anticipated volume growth, Textainer’s shares have been upgraded by Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB), Jefferies Group and a half dozen other analysts and the average earnings forecast for this year calls for better than 10 percent growth.

Textainer Group remains a buy up to 48.

Goldcorp (NYSE: GG) has also made its fourth quarter and full-year earnings announcement.

Despite an extremely week gold market, the company’s adjusted revenue in the quarter totaled $1.2 billion on sales of 725,700 ounces of gold. Production was a record 768,900 ounces in the quarter at an all-in cost of $810 per ounce on a sharp reduction in expenses. Adjusted EPS came in at $0.09 cents, well down from the $0.57 reported in the year-ago period.

Adjust full-year revenue totaled $4.7 billion on sales of 2.6 million ounces. Production totaled 2.7 million at an all-in cost of $1,031 per ounce. Adjusted operating cash flow for the year totaled $1.6 billion, producing adjusted full-year EPS of $1.97.

This year, the miner expects to produce between 3 million and 3.15 million ounces of gold (up between 13 percent and 18 percent over last year) at an all-in cost of between $950 and $1,000 per ounce (down between 3 percent and 8 percent compared to 2013). It expects capital expenditures to total between $2.3 billion and $2.5 billion, in line with last year.

Goldcorp has also launched an unsolicited bid to acquire Osisko Mining (Toronto: OSK) for CAD5.95 per share, a 28 percent premium over its 20-day average closing price prior to the bid. At this point I don’t expect the bid to be successful, with Osisko’s board recommending that shareholders reject the offer and with shares now trading over CAD7.00.

That issue aside, Goldcorp expects substantial production growth, with its Cerro Negro mine slated to commence commercial production by the middle of this year. It Mariana Central property is also expected to begin production mining later this year.

The company’s Cochenour project is also expected to begin production from its 5320 level sometime in the fourth quarter and, overall, the mine should turn in annual production of between 225,000 and 250,000 ounces.

Following its development work this year, the company now has proven and probable gold reserves of 54.4 million ounces while its silver reserves are up to 818.2 million ounces.

Given Goldcorp’s expected production ramp up and an encouraging gain of almost 10 percent in gold prices so far this year, I look for the company to continue its 2014 rally for the foreseeable future.

Continue buying Goldcorp up to 39.

Next Scheduled Portfolio Earnings Announcements:

Agrium
(NYSE: AGU) – Q4 – February 13
Sanderson Farms (NSDQ: SAFM) – Q1 – February 25
Pall Corp (NYSE: PLL) – Fiscal Q2 – February 27

 

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