Looking Beyond China
After a brief surge late last year that ran into early January, the emerging markets are once again in a slump with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index off by nearly 6 percent so far in 2014. While political crises in countries as disparate as Thailand and Ukraine have played a role in depressing the index, China remains the biggest wild card in the emerging market growth outlook.
The Chinese government recently announced that it is targeting gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 7.5 percent this year, slightly below last year’s growth of 7.7 percent. Despite the Chinese government’s fairly optimistic outlook, most Wall Street analysts expect growth to come in closer to 6 percent. Even the International Monetary Fund has said that the country is facing a unique set of economic risks, as it transitions its economic model from one that is investment-driven to a greater consumer orientation.
That said, China is not an inherently bad investment. An economic transition as dramatic as the one unfolding in China is a once-in-a-lifetime event, creating opportunities to get in on the ground floor in a number of industries. But for more robust growth, it’s worthwhile to look else.
The Chinese outlook is a mixed bag, but opportunities abound in other emerging market nations, especially in the wake of the recent weakness. A number of countries have little or no economic exposure to China and two in particular enjoy close ties to developed regions with improving growth outlooks of their own.
Leaning on the Europeans
Poland is one of the most promising countries, with relatively few ties to China.
The fourth quarter marked the country’s third consecutive quarter of growth, as its GDP rose 2.7 percent versus the prior year and was above the third quarter reading of 1.9 percent. Much of that growth has been driven by consumer spending, which has been posting robust growth. Inflation in the country has remained subdued and wages have been making modest gains in recent quarters.
Unemployment in the country remains elevated, hovering at around 13 percent, albeit below the five-year high of 14.4 percent posted a little over a year ago. Regardless, much of the country’s economic growth is being driven by consumer spending. Inflation remains relatively subdued at just 0.2 percent and wages have been making modest gains, signaling the likelihood that businesses should resume hiring soon.
The country’s benchmark interest rate of just 2.5 percent has also been prompting credit expansion and business investment in the country. Despite the fact that it joined the European Union (EU) in 2004, Poland still uses its own currency – the zloty – which has allowed it to retain a great deal of control over its fiscal and monetary policy. So while the country tends to run on the conservative side, it has the leeway to take stimulative measures as needed.
Thanks to an improving domestic growth profile and the more broad-based European recovery, Poland’s GDP is also expected to grow by more than 3 percent this year. More than half of the country’s exports remain within the euro zone – Germany is its largest trading partner – so improving export demand is forecast to make the country the third-fastest growing in the region.
A number of European businesses have also been turning to Eastern European nations for production work, saving themselves the cost of transporting goods from China. That trend helped drive industrial production growth of 5.2 percent in the country last year, even as overall economic growth was relatively weak.
Market Vectors Poland (NYSE: PLND) is a great exchange traded fund (ETF) play on the continued strength of the Polish economy and its insulation from China.
Financial services figure prominently in the ETF’s holdings at 44 percent of assets, but that’s lower than other competing products and largely reflective of the major role the financial sector plays in Poland’s economy. More than 23 percent of assets are allocated to basic materials and energy due to the country’s resource wealth.
The ETF is also relatively cheap with an expense ratio of just 0.61 percent. It also offers the added benefit of a nearly 3.2 percent yield, thanks to the tradition of Polish stocks paying stable dividends.
What’s more, the fund is inexpensive in terms of valuation because of the ongoing crisis in Ukraine. Both countries have historically been Russian satellites, but Poland was quick to integrate itself with Western Europe after the country’s communist government fell in 1989. As a result, it enjoys the diplomatic cover of the EU and the military protection of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, making it unlikely that Russia will interfere in the country’s politics.
Despite those protections, the fund’s price-to-forward-earnings ratio has fallen from about 19 to just 14 over the past few weeks and shares are now trading at book value. Shares are also trading at just 0.58 times sales, a substantial discount to the fund’s historical valuation largely due to regional concerns.
With attractive growth prospects and virtually no trade ties to China, Market Vectors Poland is a buy up to 30.
An EM Play on the US
Mexico is another country showing promising growth that is largely insulated from any Chinese slowdown.
While about 15 percent of Mexico’s imports come from China, more than 78 percent of the country’s exports are typically bound for the US. Largely because of that lopsided dependence on the US, Mexican GDP is expected to jump by 4 percent this year as the US economy continues to post modest growth.
Mexico will also benefit from the fact that 2013 was a banner year for both political and economic reforms, addressing education, financial regulation and labor markets. Those reforms have helped attract investors to the country with foreign direct investment hitting a record high of more than $35 billion last year. So far in 2014, more than $7 billion in investment deals have been announced, with companies ranging from Pepsico (NYSE: PEP) to Cisco Systems (NSDQ: CSCO) saying they will develop production capacity in the country.
Most significantly, though, the country’s energy patch will be opening up to foreign investment this year for the first time since the 1930s, with dozens of companies already expressing an interest in development deals. Mexico’s state-run oil company Pemex has already announced a cooperation agreement with Russian oil giant Lukoil (OTC: LUKOY) to developed deep water and shale oil and gas deposits.
Mexico’s energy production has been falling in recent years, down by 25 percent since 2004 alone. That’s largely due to underinvestment as the Mexican government has pulled profits out of Pemex to fund other aspects of its budget over the years. But assuming foreign investment in the energy patch plays out as expected, production is projected to climb to about 4 million barrels per day by 2025, surpassing Canada to make Mexico the world’s fifth largest oil producer. That would drive truly transformative economic expansion in Mexico.
IShares Mexico Investable Market (NYSE: EWW) is the largest and least expensive ETF devoted to the country, with $2.42 billion in assets and an expense ratio of just 0.5 percent.
From a valuation perspective the fund isn’t nearly as attractive as Market Vectors Poland, largely due to the fact that the country is politically stable in a largely untroubled region. Its current price-to-forward-earnings ratio is 15.7 with a price to book of 2.1 times. That said, the fund’s basket of holdings is forecast to grow earnings by more than 15 percent over the next five years, even as it is skewed towards companies with market capitalizations in excess of USD15 billion.
Given the country’s mineral wealth, the basic materials sector figures heavily in the fund’s portfolio at 21.9 percent of assets, although the energy sector isn’t directly represented. That’s due to the fact that Pemex is currently the only major player, but as more companies enter the energy market that allocation will grow.
While the Mexican economy is largely dependent on exports to the US, the country has a robust consumer sector with consumer staples companies accounting from 22.1 percent of assets and cyclical names 10.3 percent. Consumer spending is expected to grow rapidly in the coming years thanks to looser credit – up an estimated 15 percent last year – and wage growth driven by the country’s expanding economy.
A play on continued growth tied to the US economy and structural reforms, iShares Mexico Investable Market is a great buy up to 70.
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