The Full Monty
As of March 12, the Alerian MLP Index is down 1.3% in 2014. Add in the pro-rated share of its yield, and the total return year-to-date sits just above zero. Not great, but hardly an insurmountable hole. For comparison’s sake, the S&P 500 is up 1 percent year-to-date with far greater volatility.
But to say that MLPs have done that or not done this is to mistake a tax structure for an industry and lump what are effectively growth stories with steady income plays and others experiencing a dramatic downturn in business.
I won’t do that, which is why arguments about valuations (and I’ve made some suggesting the sector is pricey) always return to the question of, relative to what? Are upstream MLPs expensive on a cash flow basis relative to corporate drillers who don’t need to raise financing every time they want to spend capital? Absolutely. It’s why our portfolio now has just two upstream MLPs after bidding farewell this month to Legacy Reserves (Nasdaq: LGCY).
But the MLP analogs that pay corporate income taxes in the midstream space, like Williams (NYSE WMB), are priced competitively to their MLP brethren, and even more so to some non-energy stocks with lower competitive moats and slower growth rates. Comparing a midstream services provider locked into long-term fixed –fee contracts with a driller that’s much more exposed to the ups and downs of the commodity cycle is pointless.
Compare businesses, not industries or tax structures. To make this task easier, this month’s In Focus aggregates key stats on every one of our 31 portfolio holdings, including many you won’t find in one place anywhere else, such as the distribution coverage along with information on commodity hedging, incentive distribution rights and management’s 2014 outlook.
But here’s hoping the blizzard of numbers doesn’t distract you from important themes and stories. To that end. this issue also rolls out a ranking of the nine best portfolio buys, (appropriately enough, in Best Buys) along with the rationale explaining why each of these names must be owned. In many cases, we’ve raised our buy limits to let subscribers continue to build positions in these winners.
The partnership at the top of the list likely needs no introduction. Enterprise Products Partners (NYSE: EPD) is one of the largest and the almost certainly single safest MLP, one that’s used its conservative financial policies and lots of retained cash flow to generate rapid organic growth year after year.
In fact, all of our best buys have financed their growth quite conservatively, and many now boast big distribution growth and plenty of flexibility as a result.
Several are minting coin on natural gas liquids, the hydrocarbon molecules lighter than oil but heavier than gas that can be exported more readily than either.
Many have valuable assets along the Gulf Coast, which is set to dominate the business of exporting America’s new energy bounty as well as turning it into value-added petrochemicals.
Several also have a major presence in the Northeast, which is transforming into a prolific energy producer as the Marcellus and the Utica shale basins are developed.
And most either don’t have a costly general partner or are one themselves with claims on the profit streams of their subsidiaries.
These common themes recur time and again in this month’s Portfolio Update, which uses the latest quarterly reports to reassess our recommendations’ strategic positioning and market standing. So far, we seem to be outperforming “the index” by a fair margin.
But we’re mostly watching absolute returns and risk, not someone else’s basket. Whether the recommendation is an MLP or the corporate sponsor of MLPs, we want to help you make the best decision regardless of the labels.
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