Nuclear Power Redux

The 2011 meltdown of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station following a massive earthquake and tsunami was widely viewed as the final nail in the nuclear coffin. But reports of nuclear’s demise were premature.

Nuclear power had been enjoying a renaissance of sorts in the years leading up to the accident. However, the spectacle of hundreds of thousands of people fleeing their homes in the wake of the accident undermined global confidence in the nuclear option. Governments from Germany to Japan began swearing off nuclear energy for fear of another disaster.

But nuclear power has become so ingrained in the global energy mix that it is impossible to abandon it all together. In fact, opinion in Japan is already shifting. Pro-nuclear candidates recently won two key elections in the country, as rising energy costs pinch consumer’s wallets.

To be sure, Germany’s process of weaning itself from nuclear power is continuing apace. The country announced late last month that a reactor operated by E.ON (OTC: EONGY) will be shutting down sooner than expected. However, the latest political crisis with Russia might cause the country to rethink that position. Ukraine is the leading supplier of natural gas to Europe. If the Ukrainian crisis continues to escalate, it’s not beyond the realm of reason that Russia might turn that spigot off. Russia has done it before and probably wouldn’t hesitate to do it again.

What’s more, environmental concerns are tilting in favor of nuclear. At a recent conference of the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, scientists said that at least $147 billion must be immediately invested in renewable and nuclear energy as well as carbon capture and storage to address the dangers of climate change. When looking out over the next 20 years, the panel said that more than $14 trillion will need to be invested.

While spending on that scale would require a nearly unprecedented level of global cooperation, it underscores the point that nuclear power is here to stay if ambitious climate change targets are to be met.

Among the best ways to play the return to nuclear power are high quality uranium miners. As the largest and lowest-cost uranium producer in the world, Cameco (NYSE: CCJ) fits the bill.

After almost three years of rock bottom uranium prices, a number of smaller miners have been shaken out of the market. As a result, about a quarter of the uranium demand over the past few years was met by recycling, essentially re-purposing uranium from decommissioned warheads for commercial use. In fact, old Soviet warheads have been meeting about 14 percent of global uranium demand over the past few years. But it is believed that those stockpiles are dwindling because the dismantling program ended last year, which means mining will have to restart to meet any demand growth.

While Cameco’s earnings per share (EPS) were off 36 percent to $0.38, in the fourth quarter, revenue grew by 15 percent year-over-year to $977 million as production rose. EPS didn’t grow commensurately, largely because of a 4 percent difference in the average realized selling price of uranium, which fell from $49.97 per pound in the prior year period to $47.76.

For the full year, the company’s results were more encouraging, with revenue up 29 percent year-over-year to $2.439 billion and EPS up 2 percent to $1.12. Average realized price was also up 1 percent, from $47.72/lbs in 2012 to $48.35 in 2013.

While the company’s quarter-to-quarter results are likely to remain somewhat volatile, I look for a substantial improvement in earnings. Several new reactors are on the books, primarily in Asia, with construction set to begin over the next year while two new reactors have been approved in the US since the Japanese disaster. The fueling needs of existing reactors also loom large, especially now that Japan probably won’t idle all of its reactors.

As a result, Cameco forecasts that at least 20 percent of demand over the next five years will have to be met through new production, a niche that the company is well positioned to fill even as supply constraints drive prices up. Given the short supply of uranium available, the company is also a terrific hedge against the likely increase in global electricity prices as demand for power continues to grow.

I’m adding Cameco to the portfolio as a buy up to 30.

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