America Has The Gas Europe Needs
Russia’s annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea region continues to rattle the markets, particularly since Ukraine is now alleging that Russian special operations troops are on the ground in the eastern part of the country. However, this geopolitical flash point creates a rare investment opportunity.
While the conflict is ushering in a new era of cooperation between the US and European powers and renewing interest in strengthening the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, the most interesting question regards Europe’s energy future.
As I’ve written in the past, Europe imports more than half of the energy it consumes and about a third of that is Russian natural gas. That dependence on Russian energy gives Russia wide latitude of action as clearly demonstrated by the fact that Europe and America have talked tough about the Ukrainian crisis but, in reality, done relatively little. So while Russia has become the first country to outright annex a part of another country since World War II, it hasn’t gotten much more than a scolding.
One way for Europe to break its dependence on Russian gas is for America to become a liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter.
Hydraulic fracturing has revolutionized America’s energy industry, particularly when it comes to natural gas. In 2005, the US produced about 18 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of gas, a number that jumped to 24 TCF last year. The Energy Information Administration estimates that America will produce 33 TCF by 2040 and that number could become even bigger as new resources are discovered and exploited. That spells huge opportunity since the US already is the second largest producer of natural gas in the world.
The US already produces so much natural gas, it enjoys the lowest gas prices anywhere in the world, with LNG averaging about $3.00 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) as compared to about $10/MMBtu in Europe and more than $15/MMBtu in Asia. That price difference is largely due to America’s energy policies, which make it difficult to export LNG in any sizable volume.
Those policies are likely to change, though, and there are already 13 LNG export terminals which have been proposed to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). Those terminals would have export capacity of about 19 billion cubic feet per day and would boost US gas demand by about 29 percent. And given the low cost of US LNG, there would be demand.
Cheniere Energy Partners (NYSE: CQP), a master limited partnership that procures, stores and liquefies natural gas, currently has an application pending for the construction of a liquefaction and export terminal in Corpus Christi, Texas before FERC and the Department of Energy (DOE). While there are other applications ahead of Cheniere’s, the company expects to make a final decision on whether to begin construction late this year or in early 2015, with a target operational date of 2018.
The odds seem good that, assuming both FERC and DOE sign off, Cheniere will follow through on construction, because it has already secured two provisional customers. Cheniere inked a provisional deal to supply PT Pertamina, an Indonesian oil and gas company, with 800,000 tons of LNG per year for 20 years, assuming the facility is built. That deal was done in December and then, earlier this month, Cheniere agreed to supply Endesa, the largest electric utility in Spain, with another 1.5 million tons of LNG per year.
Cheniere already has an LNG terminal under construction on the border between Texas and Louisiana known as Sabine Pass. It has a number of take-or-pay contracts already in place with a number of customers and should begin generating revenue in 2016 and gain momentum through 2018.
While Cheniere was losing significant sums of money earlier this decade, it had been in the black before posting a loss of 3 cents per unit last year due to development expenses. That said, it is well positioned to continue paying its 43 cent quarterly dividend for a yield of nearly 5 percent, thanks to its cash on hand and the support of its general partner.
There is a risk that the company might not receive the requisite clearances from the government, but it is on track with its development program. And as demonstrated by its deal with Endesa, the odds seem good that its export projects will be approved and there are plenty of willing customers in Europe.
Cheniere Energy Partners is a buy up to 37.
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