Profiting from India’s Change of Control
It is official: Narendra Modi will be the next prime minister of India after his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won a landslide victory in the country’s elections. With 272 seats constituting a majority in India’s parliament the BJP swept 339 seats, giving Modi and his party the most decisive ruling mandate in 30 years and allowing it to rule without being forced to form a coalition government. Indians clearly have high hopes that Modi will be able to translate his success in the country’s western state of Gujarat onto a national scale.
Under Modi’s administration as chief of the state, Gujarat has become a leader in good roads, electrification, rising incomes and investment. During his tenure, gross domestic product growth in Gujarat has run well above those of comparable Indian states, spiking as high as 15 percent annually, while companies from around India and the world have invested heavily, including Ford (NYSE: F) and General Motors (NYSE: GM).
That success clearly struck a chord with Indian voters as the country’s economy has essentially stalled, with growth falling from low double-digits to just less than 6 percent of late. Thanks to the need for coalition governments, India’s particularly strident brand of populist politics and heavy dependence on subsidies, the country’s Congress Party has made little headway toward encouraging growth, even with an Oxford-trained economist as prime minister. Corruption has also posed no small headwind, with almost daily allegations of shady dealing.
So it should be little surprise that Modi and the BJP performed as well as they did, promising to stamp out corruption and boost efficiency while building bullet trains, hydroelectric dams and manufacturing centers. The implicit promise was that India will supplant China as the world’s next economic growth engine.
For instance, there is a movement toward improving the country’s taxation scheme, specifically its Goods and Services Tax (GST). There is currently a bevy of state and central tax that vary from state to state and a uniform GST has been proposed as a way not only to boost revenue collection but also lower the effective tax rate paid by businesses. The BJP is also expected to push for greater privatization, selling stakes in state-owned firms to raise revenue and also improve operational efficiency. Ambitious labor and subsidy reform is also on the agenda with an eye toward improving fiscal disciple and creating as many as 1 million new jobs each year. Those are on top of goals aimed at improving electricity distribution and infrastructure networks across the country.
While the average Indian – and indeed market watchers around the world – has high hopes for Modi, calling him India’s Ronald Reagan, he his facing serious challenges which are getting little more than lip service. A great deal of power is vested in India’s local governing bodies that, given the sheer size of the country, represent a wide array of disparate interests. They can make the implementation of national policy virtually impossible at the state level but, if Modi makes even minimal headway, even piecemeal implementation of the BJP’s plans could spell big gains for the Indian economy.
There will be two primary investment beneficiaries; small companies and infrastructure plays. While the two investment theses are virtually impossible for most American investors to tap into via single stocks, they are easily accessible via a pair of exchange-traded funds.
Market Vectors India Small-Cap ETF (NYSE: SCIF) holds a collection of about 90 Indian companies with an average market capitalization of USD483 million. Consumer names make up more than a quarter of the fund’s holdings, followed by smaller Indian banks, industrial names technology firms at between 15 percent and 10 percent of assets. Its individual holdings range from cement and tire makers to software companies and retailers.
Small companies will be the major beneficiaries largely thanks to their dependence on the local economy; employment gains, wage growth and tax efficiencies would create a significant boost for domestic spending. They’re also not particularly dependent on exports, an area that will be challenged by a stronger rupee.
While the fund’s 0.93 percent in annual expenses is a bit high, it is largely in line with most other India-focused funds and is the only one to provide targeted small-cap exposure. That, coupled with the fact that small-caps are likely to be top performers, makes it an excellent choice despite its higher costs.
That said, volatility is to be expected in the coming months as Modi and the BJP either make headway or flounder in implementing their economic plans. Still, I expect to see incremental improvements if only by virtue of the fact that they have a virtual lock on national governance.
Buy Market Vectors India Small-Cap ETF under 50.
Indian infrastructure companies are also quite easy for US-based investors to access thanks to EGShares India Infrastructure (NYSE: INXX).
The fund holds a basket of about 30 infrastructure related companies ranging from Bharat Heavy Electricals, which designs and manufactures equipment used in the power, transport and oil and gas sectors; Tata Power, Power Grid Corp of India, and Ambuja Cements. While there is a smattering of small-cap companies in the portfolio, it is dominated by large- and giant-cap companies with an average capitalization of USD5.1 billion.
The fund is slightly cheaper with an expense ratio of 0.85 percent and also much less volatile than its small-cap cousin, largely thanks to the large average size of its holdings and the predictability of revenues at companies that are largely contract driven. It also has the advantage of holding some of the largest Indian infrastructure companies with the greatest technical know-how, virtually guaranteeing their involvement in any large-scale projects embarked upon by the government.
EGShares India Infrastructure is a great long-term buy up to 20.
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