Despite Politics, Thailand and Poland are Good Buys
This has been a year of intense political turbulence, not the least of which has been the Russian annexation of the Crimea and a coup in Thailand that saw the nation’s prime minister deposed and the military seize power. Interestingly though, neither event has had a particular impact on the local markets.
When it comes to investing in Thailand, the broad-based iShares MSCI Thailand Index Fund (NYSE: THD) is the best option available to US investors.
The ETF holds the local shares of 90 Thai companies, with financials dominating at 39.5 percent of the portfolio. While Thai banks have experienced an earnings slowdown in recent quarters, they’re working to reverse that trend by gradually increasing fees and growing their insurance businesses. They’ve also been gradually growing their loan portfolios over the past year, but they’ve only been taking on the most creditworthy clients because their emphasis has been on making high-quality loans.
Lending will likely pick up over the rest of the year, thanks to the increased pace of infrastructure construction. While the government is footing the bill for much of that development, about a third of the projects slated to start over the next two years are being privately contracted and constructed. Many of those projects involve highway and canal work.
That will drive demand for loans by many of Thailand’s most creditworthy borrowers. Many of those loans will include government guarantees, a win-win for the banks and engineering and construction firms involved.
The top banks in the fund’s portfolio include Siam Commercial Bank, the country’s third-largest commercial bank in terms of assets, deposits and loans. The fund is also heavily in energy and materials companies at just over a quarter of assets, followed by telecoms and consumer firms.
Other top holdings include PTT PCL, a leading Thai energy firm, and telecom operator Advanced Info Service and consumer staples company CP All.
The fund is relatively inexpensive with a 0.59 percent annual expense ratio, making it cheaper than any closed-ended funds which focus on the country. It has also outperformed them with its passive indexing approach, so there’s no reason to pay the added cost for active management.
Despite the coup, the fund is actually up by more than 13 percent so far this year. Politically speaking, Thailand had been in gridlock for more than a year as the prime minister’s legitimacy was under question and the markets view the military takeover as providing a degree of certainty for the country’s future. As a result, foreign investment hasn’t slowed and life in Thailand is carrying on largely as usual.
iShares MSCI Thailand Index Fund is a buy under 85.
Market Vectors Poland (NYSE: PLND) is a great exchange traded fund (ETF) play on the continued strength of the Polish economy.
Financial services figure prominently in the ETF’s holdings at 44 percent of assets, but that’s lower than other competing products and largely reflective of the major role the financial sector plays in Poland’s economy. More than 23 percent of assets are allocated to basic materials and energy due to the country’s resource wealth.
The ETF is also relatively cheap with an expense ratio of just 0.61 percent. It also offers the added benefit of a nearly 3.2 percent yield, thanks to the tradition of Polish stocks paying stable dividends.
What’s more, the fund is inexpensive in terms of valuation because it price has been depressed by the ongoing crisis in Ukraine. Both countries have historically been Russian satellites, but Poland was quick to integrate itself with Western Europe after the country’s communist government fell in 1989. As a result, it enjoys the diplomatic cover of the EU and the military protection of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, making it unlikely that Russia will interfere in the country’s politics.
Despite those protections, the fund’s price-to-forward-earnings ratio has fallen from about 19 to just 14 over the past few weeks and shares are now trading at book value. Shares are also trading at just 0.58 times sales, a substantial discount to the fund’s historical valuation largely due to regional concerns.
With attractive growth prospects and virtually no trade ties to China, Market Vectors Poland is a buy up to 30.
Portfolio Update
Please see yesterday’s issue of Global Investment Strategist.
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