A Changing of the Guard
The good news is that many of our Best Buys have lived up to the name.
The better news is that this has created some openings on our list of top picks after we recently recommended taking profits on two of its members and downgraded the third to a Hold, all on the basis of valuation.
And the best news of all is that, despite a bull market getting long in the tooth, there is no shortage of attractive candidates to take their place from among investments we’ve already been recommending with good results.
The top four stay the same. Top ranked Best Buy Enterprise Products Partners (NYSE: EPD) and the trio that follows it, Magellan Midstream Partners (NYSE: MMP), Energy Transfer Equity (NYSE: ETE) and Sunoco Logistics Partners (NYSE: SXL) have unparalleled scale, reach, financial flexibility and growth opportunities.
We do have Energy Transfer leapfrogging its affiliate Sunoco Logistics into third place based on its favored status as the general partner and the attendant incentive income streams. And we’re raising the price targets on these names in a reflection of the growth and value they continue to offer. Buy EPD below $85, MMP below $90, ETE below $66 and SXL below $48.
In place of Williams (NYSE: WMB), recently downgraded to a Hold after a 53% return over the first half of the year, we’re adding Kinder Morgan (NYSE: KMI) as the new #5 Best Buy.
As we’ve argued before, warnings about a permanent growth slowdown at the affiliated MLP, Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (NYSE: KMP) always seemed overblown. In fact, the recent slowdown was dictated by the heavy slate of investment projects and the equity raises that paid for them, investments that will soon add to growth as they come on line.
After missing the past two years of the MLP rally, Kinder Morgan appears to have priced all of the risk associated with its past acquisition binge and little or no benefit from the likely upturn in interstate gas transmission demand. The stock’s technical trend has improved, yet it continues to fetch less than it did in February of 2012.
The current yield of 4.7% is relatively rich for a giant with an excellent shot at increasing its dividend by 10% or so in each of the next several years.
If KMI’s skim of 50% of the cash flow from new KMP projects proves unsustainable over the longer term it can be expected to restructure those incentives on favorable terms given that founder Richard Kinder has the bulk of his fortune in KMI shares. Buy KMI below the increased limit of $40.
The #6 slot on the Best Buys list has been vacated by Targa Resources (NYSE: TRGP) after a 57% return in the first half of 2014 (and 80% since our November recommendation). In its place, we’re adding MarkWest Energy Partners (NYSE: MWE), a leading gas gatherer and processor in the Marcellus and the Utica shale basins.
Like Kinder Morgan, MarkWest was penalized earlier this year when its ambitious investment spending dampened distribution growth. Like Kinder Morgan, it’s about to prove that there is more to value creation than near-term distribution growth. The recent upswing in the price has coincided with bulk buying of the longer-dated call options, and there are good reasons to believe that MarkWest’s footprint in the fast-growing shale basins of the Northeast might be viewed as a strategic asset by a future suitor. Buy MWE below the increased price target of $77.
EnLink Midstream (NYSE: ENLC) moves up a spot to #7 given its scale and gas processing assets and is a Buy below the increased limit of $44. (Our sister publication The Energy Strategist is equally enthused about its sponsor and majority owner Devon Energy (NYSE: DVN).)
Making its Best Buys debut at #8 is Energy Transfer Partners (NYSE: ETP), the main operating affiliate of Energy Transfer Equity (NYSE: ETP) that’s lagged badly behind its parent’s gains over the last year. Yet the LNG export under development by Energy Transfer will significantly increase the flow of gas through ETP’s pipes. Another underused gas pipeline will soon be repurposed to carry Bakken crude south. And ETE’s plans to buy all of the incentive distribution rights currently collected by ETP should allow the latter to step up the pace of distribution increases. The current yield is a secure and relatively attractive 6.6%. Buy ETP below $65.
AmeriGas Partners (NYSE: APU) keeps the last spot on the Best Buys list on recognition of its solid 7.7% yield, steady growth and demonstrated ability to expand margin in a variety of commodity environments. Buy APU below $51.
To sum up, the new list looks like this:
1. Enterprise Products Partners (NYSE: EPD)
2. Magellan Midstream Partners (NYSE: MMP)
3. Energy Transfer Equity (NYSE: ETE)
4. Sunoco Logistics Partners (NYSE: SXL)
5. Kinder Morgan (NYSE: KMI)
6. MarkWest Energy Partners (NYSE: MWE)
7. EnLink Midstream (NYSE: ENLC)
8. Energy Transfer Partners (NYSE: ETP)
9. AmeriGas Partners (NYSE: APU)
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