A Trio of Sales
Here are three portfolio holdings that should be sold now.
Merk Absolute Return Currency Fund (MABFX) has been essentially flat since it was added to the portfolio, down by about 1.5 percent. I decided to include it in our holdings based on my belief that the dollar would return to its long-term trend of decline, largely due to the fact that there are a host of global currencies backed by sounder, less inflationary monetary and fiscal policies.
Fund manager Axel Merk has made his reputation by focusing on those stronger currencies, taking his fund to a nearly 6 percent gain last year as he bet on a continued economic recovery in the euro zone. In managing the fund, Merk has the leeway to invest in virtually any currency he sees fit and seeks to exploit inefficiencies in the market. That means comparing both fundamental and technical factors to determine which currencies are likely to gain and which are likely to decline, then going long or short as appropriate with an emphasis on the strongest currencies available.
Unfortunately though, so far this year the US dollar has proven quite resilient as the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan have embarked on aggressive easing campaigns even as our own Federal Reserve has been winding down its large-scale asset purchases. As a result, it seems likely that the dollar will maintain its momentum for some time to come. While I agree with Merk’s long-term view that the dollar is a fundamentally challenged currency, in the intermediate-term Merk isn’t likely to significantly boost his dollar exposure simply to give his fund a boost, especially since that wouldn’t provide a huge benefit for his US-based investors.
With little indication that the dollar will reverse course any time soon, sell Merk Absolute Return Currency Fund.
I’m also recommending that readers sell Mitsubishi Estate (Japan: 8802, OTC: MITEY) and Lindsay Corp (NYSE: LNN).
Lindsay Corp reported a sharp 37 percent decline in its fiscal third quarter earnings, coming in at $1.28 per share as compared to $2.01 in the year-ago period. Revenue also declined 23 percent to $169.9 million.
The decline is primarily due to geopolitical instability, as irrigation projects in Ukraine and Iraq have stalled and international sales fell by 26 percent to $60.9 million as work was disrupted. U.S irrigation sales also dropped by 26 percent to $88.1 million, thanks largely to a relatively mild spring. The company’s infrastructure operations, however, posted solid 13 percent growth to $20.9 million.
While the company’s international operations are being complicated by ongoing conflicts around the world, our primary thesis remains intact as agricultural commodity prices continue to rise and farm incomes are growing. That said, the company’s international exposure could remain problematic for some time to come as it struggles to complete projects in troubled regions around the world. And there’s no shortage of trouble as tensions in the Middle East remain high, making unlikely that the company’s Iraqi contracts will be fulfilled any time soon, and there’s little indication that the troubles in the Ukraine are over.
Sell Lindsay.
Despite the fact that the Bank of Japan has been purchasing JPY7 trillion worth of government debt each month in order to lower borrowing costs in the country and stoke inflation, real estate developer Mitsubishi Estate has failed to gain any momentum, in either dollar or yen terms.
The company’s net income jumped 41 percent in its latest fiscal year to JPY64.3 billion thanks to growing residential demand and rising commercial rents. It also booked JPY2 trillion in unrealized gains in its fiscal 2013, which ended March 31, well ahead of any of its competitors. Vacancy rates in the key Tokyo market also declined to 6.5 in May as compared to 8.3 percent in the year-ago period, the lowest level since 2009.
While Prime Minister Abe has clearly made progress in stoking Japanese inflation, so far investors just don’t seem to be sold on Tokyo’s economic reform program as little progress has been made towards reshaping labor and agricultural policies. As a result, after an initial boost in optimism late last year, Japanese equities have been largely languishing in 2014, even those of high quality companies such as Mitsubishi Estate.
Rather than wait for a meaningful turn, take the loss and sell Mitsubishi Estate.
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