A Not-So-Random Walk Through How They Rate

A solid rebound for the Australia dollar has helped first-half total return figures for US investors who are long Australian equities, as the S&P/Australian Securities Exchange 200 Index (ASX) outpaced the S&P 500 Index and the MSCI World Index from Dec. 31, 2013, through June 30, 2014.

The aussie appreciated by 5.8 percent versus the US dollar over the first half of the year, from USD0.8917 at the end of 2013 to USD0.9433 as of June 30, 2014. CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust (NYSE: FXA), and exchange-traded fund (ETF) that tracks the aussie, was up 6.5 percent for the period.

Meanwhile, the S&P/ASX 200 was up 3 percent in local terms, including dividends. Accounting for the strengthening aussie, the Australian benchmark was up 8.8 percent versus 7.1 percent for the S&P 500 and 6.5 percent for the MSCI World Index.

The 28 companies that make up the AE Portfolio produced an average half-year total return in US dollar terms of 11.6 percent. The 15 Conservative Holdings’ average was 14.1 percent, the Aggressive Holdings’ 8.6 percent.

For reference sake, iShares MSCI Australia Index Fund (NYSE: EWA), an Australia-focused ETF populated with large-capitalization stocks, was up 8.8 percent including dividends. The small-cap-focused IQ Australia Small Cap ETF (NYSE: KROO) was up 6.2 percent.

Aberdeen Asia-Pacific Income Fund (NYSE: FAX), which includes fixed-income securities issued primarily by Australian and Asian sovereigns and which is an AE Portfolio Conservative Holding, was up 12.9 percent for the first half of the year, as international investors return to aussie-denominated assets.

Here’s a sector-by-How They Rate sector look at what worked and what didn’t over the first six months of 2014, with an emphasis on Portfolio Holdings but including selective reviews of companies with bright or dim prospects for the balance of the year, into 2015 and beyond.

Basic Materials

The major story in the Basic Materials space over the first six months of 2014 was the steep decline in the iron ore price. Questions about China’s growth trajectory and oversupply after years of capacity expansion combined to take the benchmark price from USD142.80 as of Aug. 14, 2013, to USD89 by June 16, 2014.

Big producers, including BHP Billiton Ltd (ASX: BHP, NYSE: BHP) and Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO, NYSE: RIO) have been expanding their production rapidly, with the effect of forcing smaller-scale producers out of the market. BHP and Rio can turn a profit even with iron ore in the USD60s per metric ton, a function of scale.

BHP Billiton is a buy under USD40 on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) and under USD80 on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).

Rio Tinto is a buy under USD65 on the ASX, under USD62 on the NYSE.

We continue to recommend both BHP and Rio Tinto for their long-term prospects, based on their low-cost operations as well as recent efforts by management to reduce capital expenditures and focus investment on core commodities. Shareholders will benefit in the form of more aggressive share buybacks and increased dividends.

While iron ore has struggled, nickel and copper have enjoyed for more favorable supply-demand dynamics, reflected in the outstanding performance of Mincor Resources NL (ASX: MCR, OTC: MCRZF), Western Areas NL (ASX: WSA, OTC: WNARF) and OZ Minerals Ltd (ASX: OZL, OTC: OZMLF).

Mincor and Western continue to boost nickel production at lower and lower cash costs. OZ is bringing in equity partners to help it move its major Carrapateena project forward, while cash costs at its key Prominent Hill mine continue to track toward the low end of guidance.

Buy Mincor Resources under USD0.70, Western Areas under USD4.50 and OZ Minerals under USD4.50.

We took a loss on former Aggressive Holding Iluka Resources Ltd (ASX: ILU, OTC: ILKAF, ADR: ILKAY) when we sold it from the Portfolio in July 2012; we held the stock for just four months, during which time management issued three profit downgrades and production warnings.

This unfortunate series of events followed a rapid expansion of its mineral sands production capacity in response to exponential demand growth in China.

Economic growth is stabilizing in the Middle Kingdom, as are Iluka’s operations and its financial condition. Iluka Resources is a buy for aggressive investors under USD10.

We remain cautious-to-bearish on gold-focused names, as we’re not convinced the Midas Metal represents a legitimate hedge against inflation, nor is it useful in any industrial process.

Consumer Goods

The How They Rate group is a disparate one, with a surfwear manufacturer/marketer, a soft-drink bottler, an industrial and consumer appliance maker and three agriculture and food-related businesses.

AE Portfolio Aggressive Holding GrainCorp Ltd (ASX: GNC, OTC: GRCLF), hurt in November 2013 by Australian Treasurer Joe Hockey’s decision to block the company’s acquisition by Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (NYSE: ADM), posted a 4.3 percent total return in US dollar terms over the first six months of 2014.

Management recently noted encouraging pre-planting rains in many areas from which it draws its grains, with canola planting substantially underway in many areas and good starts for wheat and barley. Favorable conditions and good finishing rains will be critical to the delivery of a good crop in eastern Australia.

The company also plans to invest AUD200 million in its infrastructure, including the construction of three new grain-handling facilities. Closing about 40 percent of its storage facilities and cutting 80 jobs, meanwhile, will save an estimated AUD5 per metric ton of grain handled.

GrainCorp expects to make an announcement about its permanent CEO in the very near future. We continue to recommend GrainCorp for aggressive investors up to USD10.

Goodman Fielder Ltd (ASX: GFF, OTC: GDFLF) is on the verge of being bought by joint bidders Wilmar International Ltd (Singapore: WIL, OTC: WLMIF, ADR: WLMIY) and First Pacific Co Ltd (Hong Kong: 142, OTC: FPAFF), which hope to turn the company’s bread-and-food-products business around and capitalize on evolving Asian appetites.

Ridley Corp Ltd’s (ASX: RIC, OTC: RIDYF) position as a feedmaker for livestock should put it in the sweet spot of this Asian-eating-habits story. But the stock has been limp in 2014, with a loss of 1.3 percent for the first six months of the year.

Surfwear brand Billabong International Ltd (ASX: BBG, OTC: BLLAF, ADR: BLLAY) posted an impressive rally in 2014, its share price rising by 25.9 percent in US dollar terms. (The company no longer pays a dividend.)

Its status among what once was its core market–surfers–has deteriorated due to the company’s willingness to sell its products to virtually anyone, regardless of their proximity to waves or their participation in the sport that was the foundation of its initial popularity. Brand dilution is the biggest bugaboo for Billabong, and it will take time to fix.

Coca-Cola Amatil Ltd (ASX: CCL, OTC: CCLAF, ADR: CCLAY) is struggling as the beverage of its name reaches the global saturation point. An expansion into distilled beverages should help spur growth.

Consumer Services

We update the situation for AE Portfolio Aggressive Holdings Crown Resorts Ltd (ASX: CWN, OTC: CWLDF, ADR: CWLDY) and JB Hi-Fi Ltd (ASX: JBH, OTC: JBHIF) in this month’s Portfolio Update.

Crown, which has the go-ahead to expand in its foundational Australian market with Sydney’s first casino and is making headway in the high-potential Japan market, remains a buy under USD16.50.

JB Hi-Fi, with its low cost of doing business, its successful implementation of an online strategy and its efforts to expand into appliances, is a buy under USD18.

We also favor Amalgamated Holdings Ltd (ASX: AHD, OTC: AMGHF), Australia’s largest movie theater operator.

Amalgamated, which also owns an alpine resort and has extensive cinema exhibition holdings in Germany, is well placed to benefit from Hollywood’s ability to churn out tent-pole feature films capable of supporting multiple sequels, building and establishing loyal fans who will line up ahead of premiers to buy tickets.

Amalgamated is a buy under USD8.

It’s not a Portfolio Holding, but we have recommended Navitas Ltd (ASX: NVT, OTC: NVTZF) in recent months as a play on the rise of the Chinese middle class. The education services provider has a significant presence on the Mainland, availing Chinese in search of quality schools abroad opportunities in Australia, the UK and Canada.

The stock, which generated a total return of 18.6 percent over the first six months of 2014, took a big hit in early July when Macquarie University opted not to extend a contract that’s due to expire in 2015.

Management has assured the market that no other university partners are contemplating similar moves to bring in-house their “bridging” services to help prepare students for higher education.

This decline provides an opportunity for aggressive investors to pick up Navitas under USD6.

Seven West Media Ltd (ASX: SVW, OTC: WANHF) and its Seven Network represent relative bright spots in an otherwise bleak landscape for businesses that rely on advertising spend to drive revenues. Seven Network continues to increase its share of that spend, with ratings that far outpace its free-to-air TV rivals

Seven West is a buy under USD2.

We also like Tabcorp Holdings Ltd (ASX: TAH, OTC: TABCF) and its lotteries/wagering business. Bets placed on the 2014 FIFA World Cup far exceeded expectations and should provide a nice upside surprise for fiscal 2015 first-half earnings.

Tabcorp is a buy under USD3.50.

Financials

Financials, including banks, insurance companies and Australia real estate investment trusts (A-REIT) were solid during the first six months of 2014, with the S&P/ASX Financials Index posting a US dollar total return of 12 percent.

The 14 Financials included in the AE How They Rate coverage universe produced a total return of 14.5 percent for the comparison period.

Among Australia’s Big Four banks we favor Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd (ASX: ANZ, OTC: ANEWF, ADR: ANZBY), which continues to make meaningful progress in expanding its operations into China and Greater Asia.

ANZ posted a 12 percent total return for the first six months of 2014, trailing Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC, NYSE: WBK) at 13.5 percent and Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA, OTC: CBAUF, OTC: CMWAY) at 12.5 percent.

Results for the six months ended March 31, 2014, continue to demonstrate consistent progress on ANZ’s long-term strategy to grow in its core franchises in Australia and New Zealand, to build a significant and profitable franchise in Asia Pacific and to establish efficient infrastructure and processes that improve productivity and reduce risk.

Management noted that its international efforts, particularly Asia, are “firing on all cylinders,” as revenue and profit grew by solid rates.

ANZ remains well capitalized, with an Australia Prudential Regulation Authority Common Equity Tier 1 ratio as of March 31, 2014, of 8.33 percent, or 10.5 percent on an internationally harmonized Basel III basis.

Australia & New Zealand Banking Group is a buy under USD34 on the ASX using the symbol ANZ and on the US over-the-counter (OTC) market using the symbol ANEWF.

ANZ also trades on the US OTC market as a Level I, sponsored American Depositary Receipt (ADR) under the symbol ANZBY. ANZ’s US OTC-traded ADR represents one ordinary, ASX-listed share. ANZ’s ADR is a buy under USD34.

Westpac is a buy under USD33, Commonwealth Bank under USD72.

Singapore-based Frasers Centrepoint Ltd’s (Singapore: FCL) AUD4.48 per share, AUD2.6 billion bid for Australand Property Group (ASX: ALZ, OTC: AUAOF) moved a couple steps closer to consummation over the past two weeks.

On July 1, 2014, Frasers CEO Lim Ee Seng announced that his company’s four-week due diligence process affirmed “the rationale and strategic fit” and made the off-market bid to acquire Australand a binding offer.

In addition to the AUD4.48 per share buyout price Australand shareholders will receive an interim dividend for 2014 of AUD0.1275. It’s payable Aug. 6, 2014, to shareholders of record as of June 30.

Australand’s board has recommended the offer to shareholders.

The A-REIT posted a total return of 25.2 percent from Dec. 31, 2013, through June 30, 2014, tops among AE Financials.

Frasers’ offer remains subject to acceptance by at least half of Australand’s shareholders and approval by Australia’s Foreign Investment Review Board. It remains open for acceptance by Australand shareholders through Aug. 7. Australand is a hold pending completion of the acquisition.

Fellow A-REIT and Conservative Holding GPT Group (ASX: GPT, OTC: GPTGF) was also a solid wealth-builder over the first half of 2014, with a total return of 22.4 percent.

Retail sales continue to build momentum, with GPT’s specialty sales up 5.9 percent in March 2014 versus March 2013 and 4.4 percent for the first quarter versus the first quarter of 2013.

GPT’s wholesale funds are working on planned acquisitions of AUD1.2 billion of assets.

Occupancy trends are also encouraging. GPT Group is a buy under USD4.

For more on the A-REITs under How They Rate coverage see the May 2014 In Focus feature.

Health Care

Respiratory and acute care and obstructive sleep apnea products manufacturer and marketer Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corp Ltd (ASX: FPH, OTC: FSPKF), capitalizing on rising demand on emerging markets, and insurer NIB Holdings Ltd (ASX: NHF, OTC: None), benefiting from demographic trends as well as the pullback in public spending in Australia, put up big total return numbers in early 2014.

Fisher & Paykel paced the AE Health Care group at 32.9 percent, with NIB just behind at 28.6 percent.

Fisher & Paykel’s run makes it a hold, while NIB is a buy under USD2.75.

Our top picks in the sector include biotherapeutics/immunoglobulin specialist CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL, OTC: CMXHF, ADR: CMXHY), which posted a first-half total return of 2.7 percent, and private hospital owner/developer/operator Ramsay Health Care Ltd (ASX: RHC, OTC: RMSYF), which was up 11.8 percent for the period.

Solid if unspectacular performance is backed by stable and growing demand around the world for CSL’s drug therapies and global demographic and spending trends that require more facilities of the type Ramsay runs.

CSL is a buy under USD63 on the ASX using the symbol CSL and on the US OTC market using the symbol CMXHF.

CSL also trades on the US OTC market as an ADR under the symbol CMXHY. CSL’s ADR, which represents 0.5 of an ordinary, ASX-listed share, is a buy under USD31.50.

Ramsay Health Care is a buy under USD44.

Our favorite non-Portfolio pick is Sonic Healthcare Ltd (ASX: SHL, OTC: SKHCF), a medical testing outfit that will benefit as the proliferation of health insurance in the US drives doctor visits and a focus on early prevention and treatment.

The JPMorgan survey of physician office visits has shown very positive results over the past few months, a reversal of consistent monthly declines since the Great Financial Crisis/Global Recession. Sonic Healthcare is a buy under USD16.

Ansell Ltd (ASX: ANN, OTC: ANSLF, ADR: ANSLY), meanwhile, is well positioned to benefit from gradually improving safety standards in emerging economies that should drive sales of its protective equipment.

Ansell is a buy under USD19 on the ASX using the symbol ANN and on the US OTC market using the symbol ANSLF.

Ansell also trades on the US OTC market as an ADR under the symbol ANSLY. Ansell’s ADR, which represents four ordinary, ASX-listed shares, is a buy under USD76.

Industrials

The Industrials group is exposed to several different pockets of global and domestic weakness, with mining and energy engineering services providers suffering due to the slowdown in capital spending in those sectors, though building suppliers should start to see improvement in operating and financial numbers in the first half of 2015 based on the Australian housing market recovery.

The 18 companies included in the Industrials group in the How They Rate coverage universe generated an average total return of 4.7 percent from Dec. 31, 2013, through June 30, 2014.

Companies exposed to Australian home-building, including CSR Ltd (ASX: CSR, OTC: CSRLF), which was up 41.1 percent for the first six months of 2014 and led the group, have performed well in the market.

CSR is a buy under USD3.15.

Boart Longyer Ltd (ASX: BLY, OTC: BOARF), whose fortunes are tightly linked to global mining and resources exploration and development as opposed to production, declined by another 49.3 percent, sinking ever closer to bankruptcy.

Our top pick remains toll road owner/operator Transurban Group (ASX: TCL, OTC: TRAUF), which owns assets in high-traffic central business districts in Australia and in the Washington, DC, metropolitan area in the US. Transurban, which posted a half-year total return of 18.4 percent, is the subject of one of this month’s Sector Spotlight features, as it represents one of our two top ideas for new money right now.

Transurban is now a buy under USD7.50.

Fellow Conservative Holding Cardno Ltd (ASX: CDD, OTC: COLDF) has struggled with the pullback in spending across the global energy and mining sectors, reflected in a six-month loss of 0.4 percent. But recent mergers and acquisitions as well as the diversity of its professional engineering and consulting services have allowed the company to maintain its dividend.

Management has noted the continuing difficulties with the Australian market, but it is active on several oil and gas and housing projects.

The uptick in US economic growth bodes well for the company, which has bolted on several niche engineering firms in North American in recent years. Cardno remains a buy under USD8.05.

Sydney Airport (ASX: SYD, OTC: SYDDF), which we added to the Aggressive Holdings in December 2013, owns and operates what is quite literally the gateway to Australia for many travelers from around the world, including in increasing numbers members of China’s rapidly growing middle class.

Sydney Airport, which posted a total return of 20.4 percent during its first six months in the Portfolio, is a buy up to USD4.

Oil & Gas

We rate all six companies in the How They Rate Oil & Gas group buys right now, reflecting their solid assets and operating and financial prospects in the context of growing emerging-market demand for energy.

Portfolio producers Oil Search Ltd (ASX: OSH, OTC: OISHF, ADR: OISHY) and Woodside Petroleum Ltd (ASX: WPL, OTC: WOPEF, ADR: WOPEY) are already casting off the benefits of their respective liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects, with Oil Search surging to new all-time highs on the ASX almost daily based on the success of the Papua New Guinea LNG project and Woodside ramping up its dividend due to its Pluto LNG output.

PNG LNG is coming in on time and within an upwardly revised budget, though its progress stands apart from other similar projects for positive reasons. Oil Search management has pledged to boost the dividend “materially” based on PNG LNG, and the company continues to enjoy solid results from its exploration program.

Oil Search is a buy under USD9 on the ASX using the symbol OSH and on the US OTC market using the symbol OISHF.

Oil Search also trades as an ADR on the US OTC market under the symbol OISHY. Oil Search’s ADR represents 10 underlying shares traded on the ASX and is a buy under USD90.

Woodside, meanwhile, faces concerns about its long-term ability to grow production in the aftermath of its abandoned pursuit of a share of the Leviathan natural gas field offshore Israel. The company did recently acquire an oil block in Tanzania, and the additional cash flow from Pluto should cover both a stepped-up dividend policy as well as new production opportunities.

Woodside Petroleum is a buy under USD42 on the ASX using the symbol WPL and on the US OTC market using the symbol WOPEF.

Woodside also trades as an ADR on the US OTC market under the symbol WOPEY. Woodside’s ADR is also a buy under USD42.

Oil and gas engineering services firm WorleyParsons Ltd (ASX: WOR, OTC: WYGPF, ADR: WYGPY) has struggled, mightily, amid a global downturn for energy exploration and development. But activity is picking up, and WorleyParsons has ample experience in the Canadian oil sands and other prolific basins around the world.

The stock price has also shown signs of life in recent weeks following a 13 percent total return for the first half of 2014.

We’re sticking with the company on its potential for an operational and financial rebound based on accelerating global economic growth.

WorleyParsons is a buy on the ASX using the symbol WOR and on the US OTC market using the symbol WYGPF under USD16.

WorleyParsons also trades on the US OTC market as an ADR under the symbol WYGPY. The ADR is worth one ordinary, ASX-listed share. WorleyParsons’ ADR is also a buy under USD16.

Technology

We no longer have IT representation in the AE Portfolio after we sold SMS Management & Technology Ltd (ASX: SMX, OTC: SMSUF, ADR: SMSUY) from the Aggressive Holdings in the March 2014 issue, booking a loss of 42.5 percent.

In October 2012 SMS issued the first in what would become a series of profit warnings and downgrades, sending the stock price on a steep and then a slow decline that continues amid tepid demand for its software and consulting services.

Private-sector demand is showing signs of picking up, but government purse strings are tighter than ever in the aftermath of a relatively austere Australian federal budget for fiscal 2015.

We cover three other Technology names in How They Rate, only one of which, financial data and software provider Iress Ltd (ASX: IRE, OTC: None), appears in the S&P/ASX IT Index.

That index is 13.5 percent to the positive for the Dec. 31, 2013, to June 30, 2014, period. Our group of four dividend-paying tech stocks posted an average loss of 11.2 percent, with metal detector and radio communications manufacturer Codan Ltd (ASX: CDA, OTC: CODAF) “leading” with a loss of 28.3 percent.

Codan has been hit hard by a steep slide in metal detector sales resulting from the collapse of gold prices, with a corresponding impact on earnings and dividends.

Redflex Holdings Ltd (ASX: RDF, OTC: RFLXF), down 5.6 percent, continues to deal with the aftermath of a corruption/bribery scandal with major customer the City of Chicago. There’s also been a minor backlash in some communities against the entire concept of red-light traffic cameras.

Iress, meanwhile, is subject to global financial market activity, the lifeblood of its business. We’ve clearly come back from the depths of 2009, but volumes remain well below pre-crisis levels.

Telecommunications

Telecommunications stocks trailed the broader benchmark with a total return of 7.9 percent versus 8.8 percent for the S&P/ASX 200 Index. The five companies in the How They Rate Telecommunications group posted an average return of 7.6 percent.

Turnaround play Telecom Corp of New Zealand Ltd (ASX: TEL, OTC: NZTCF), which is changing its name to Spark New Zealand Ltd as of Aug. 8, 2014, led the way with a gain including dividends of 27.5 percent.

Management continues to make good on its plan to shore up operations, and the company will launch 4G mobile broadband services for commercial traffic in late August, part of an effort to upgrade its overall infrastructure.

Original AE Portfolio member Telstra Corp Ltd (ASX: TLS, OTC: TTRAF, ADR: TLSYY) posted a 7.7 percent gain for the first half of the year. Aspirations for Australia’s dominant telecom increasingly focus on Asia, where the company plans profit-sharing arrangements whereby it will build 4G infrastructure for partners in emerging economies.

Sitting on a considerable cash hoard, Telstra will likely announce some sort of capital management plan–a buyback, a special dividend and/or another dividend increase–when it reports fiscal 2014 results in mid-August.

Telstra is a buy under USD5 on the ASX using the symbol TLS and on the US OTC market using the symbol TTRAF.

Telstra also trades as an ADR on the US OTC market under the symbol TLSYY. The ADR is worth five ordinary shares. Telstra’s ADR is a buy under USD25.

Fellow Conservative Holding M2 Telecommunications Group Ltd (ASX: MTU, OTC: MTCZF) is suffering in the market because its revenue, earnings and cash flow growth rates will slow, according to management, in fiscal 2014. The stock generated a loss of 0.8 percent from Dec. 31, 2013, through June 30, 2014.

At the same time, its valuation and still-attractive growth trajectory could make it a compelling takeover target.

And management recently noted that M2 is on track to hit the midpoint of its fiscal 2014 EBITDA and NPAT guidance ranges, implying year-over-year growth rates of 48 percent and 48.4 percent, respectively.

M2 Telecommunications is a strong buy under USD6.

Utilities

Utilities–the seven that populate the How They Rate coverage universe and the six that make up the S&P/ASX 200 Utilities Index–paced the market over the first half of 2014.

Our Utilities coverage includes the six in the S&P/ASX Utilities Index plus Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG, OTC: OGFGF, ADR: OGFGY), which in addition to being a major natural gas producer also happens to be the largest electric and gas utility in Australia based on number of customers.

The seven companies in our Utilities coverage–Origin plus AGL Energy Ltd (ASX: AGK, OTC: AGLNF, ADR: AGLNY), APA Group (ASX: APA, OTC: APAJF), DUET Group (ASX: DUE, OTC: DUETF), Envestra Ltd (ASX: ENV, OTC: EVSRF), SP AusNet (ASX: SPN, OTC: SAUNF) and Spark Infrastructure Group (ASX: SKI, OTC: SFDPF)–generated an average total return of 21.2 percent in US dollar terms over the first half of the year.

We detailed the virtues of the group–six of which we hold in the AE Portfolio–in the June 2014 In Focus feature.

Total return figures for Envestra and DUET have been driven by takeover talk.

Envestra’s acquisition by Cheung Kong Infrastructure Holdings Ltd (Hong Kong: 1038, OTC: CKISF, ADR: CKISY) and its affiliates Cheung Kong Holdings Ltd (Hong Kong: 0001, OTC: CHEUF, ADR: CHEUY) and Power Assets Holdings Ltd (Hong Kong: 0006, OTC: HGKGF, ADR: HGKGY) for AUD1.32 per share plus a final dividend of AUD0.035 per share is close to complete.

Spark, meanwhile, has established a 14 percent stake in DUET, with speculation swirling that a bid for total control will follow.

AGL and Origin, at 10.8 percent and 11.6 percent, respectively, bring up the performance rear for the Utilities group, due in large part to weak demand for electricity across Australia, a function of slowing economic growth. These are both long-term cash generators, however, that continue to add to their asset bases.

Economic growth Down Under over the past couple years has been slow relative to the broader trend carved out over the past two decades. But momentum is gathering, and Australia still hasn’t suffered a recession since the very early 1990s.

AGL will take a short-term hit due to the repeal of Australia’s carbon tax, though Origin is already touting the benefits to customers in terms of lower rates.

As indicated by our decision to devote nearly a quarter of the AE Portfolio to the group, we favor utilities over other sectors, for their relatively secure asset, cash flow and dividend growth.

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