Since Brazil’s trouncing by Germany in the World Cup, it’s been encouraging to hear some commentators speculate that the blow to Brazilian pride might cost President Dilma Rousseff her reelection. Many Brazilian youths idolize soccer players and the sport is woven into the country’s national identity, if for no other reason than success on the field is a way out of poverty. If you think about the election in those latter economic terms then, yes, Rousseff might be in trouble because Brazilian elections are almost always referendums on the economy.

And if you’re an investor in Brazil, that trouble is a good thing. The markets see a better future for the country should challenger Aecio Neves take the election.

We can’t forget that Brazil has essentially been under a siege of political protests for nearly a year now, with most of those protests centered on the issue of poverty. While the situation has been more calm since the World Cup than it was in the run up, demonstrations have still be breaking out demanding everything from higher wages to lower bus fares.

Despite those troubles, opinion polls earlier this year showed Rousseff with a comfortable lead heading into the October election, which might have resulted in an outright victory—a candidate there needs at least 50% of the vote to avoid a runoff election.  Her margins have since compressed, though they have shown a slight improvement recently. Before the World Cup began, her polling average was 34% which rose to 38% immediately after the games. Just a week ago, Rousseff had made further headway with results showing she would likely win about 40% of the vote.

Now polling shows Rousseff in a dead heat with Aecio Neves of the centrist Social Democratic Party. Eduardo Campos of the Brazilian Socialist Party, the third contender for the presidency, is an also-ran.

Despite the fact that the election has been getting sportier, Rousseff is still widely expected to win. While her economic policies – low interest rates and high transfer payments – have allowed inflation to rise about 6% even as gross domestic product growth is expected to slip below 1% for the year, her populist approach helps keep her on top. Never mind that business confidence, industrial production and foreign direct investment have all been falling.

As an investor though, I’ve been happy to see Rousseff’s fortunes waning. Her main opponent, Neves, who received the official nod from his party in mid-June, has strong pro-business credentials from his time as governor of the State of Minas Gerais and is currently a member of the Brazilian Federal Senate.

While he has pledged to continue boosting the country’s minimum wage by at least the rate of inflation and guarantee funding for the Bolsa Familia program, essentially cash payments to the poor, he has also said we would work to improve efficiency in public services. His administration would slash the number of government ministries, many of which overlap, which results in confusion and wasteful spending, while introducing greater transparency. He has also said that he would work with the country’s legislature to simplify the tax system.

His proposed policies don’t take nearly the populist bent of Rousseff’s, though polling data show that he has a growing base amongst minimum wage earners. While his support amongst those voters is just 26% versus Rousseff’s 51%, he’s making inroads and that shows that the incumbents star is falling.

With the election still nearly three months away, it’s too soon to call it one way or the other. But the markets are clearly hoping for a Neves victory, with Brazilian equities rising when his polling data shows improvement and flat lining when it falls. For now though, I wouldn’t double down on any investments that you might have in Brazil. Rather, with Neves continuing to make headway in the polls, I would take a wait-and-see approach and come to a decision in another month or so.

Portfolio Updates

Singapore company Keppel (OTC: KPELY) has reported that while its revenue grew by just 3% in the second quarter to SND3.177 billion, driven entirely by growth in the Offshore & Marine division, net profit was up 17% to SND406 million thanks to improving margins. Earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter rose 16 percent to SND0.223 from SND0.192 in the year-ago period.

For the first half of the year, revenue rose 6% to SND6.173 billion, with net profit up 6% to SND745 million. EPS for the period rose from SND0.39 last year to SND0.41.

The company should continue to benefit from oil prices which continue to hover at about USD100, high enough to spur more offshore drilling activity. In the first half of the year Offshore & Marine won SND3.2 billion in new contracts, taking the net value of the order book up to SND14.1 billion. As a result, while Keppel’s infrastructure and property divisions are likely to see a further slowdown as we continue moving through 2014, Keppel should continue to post strong earnings growth in the mid-single digits well into next year.

Keppel Corp remains a buy up to USD20.