How to Play the World’s Economies

Hedge your bets. If the International Monetary Fund gave investment advice, that might be its three-word recommendation.

Late last month the IMF predicted the Eurozone’s contracting economy would grow at an anemic 1.5% next year. Meanwhile, it revised the U.S.’s growth downward by 1.1% percentage points to 1.7% for 2014, but said it would rise to 3% in 2015. Our own take: We’re cautions about the U.S. recovery given retail sales stalled in July and wage growth has failed to surpass the inflation rate.

The Chinese economic engine, the world’s No. 2 economy, will expand 7.4% this year, according to the IMF. That’s good news for the globe, but we’re less optimistic than the IMF about China. Data from China shows financial activity slowed down in July: New lending declined 86% in July from June, the slowest rate of credit expansion since Lehman Brother’s crashed in 2008, according to economists interviewed by the New York Times.

And July new home sales in China fell 17.9% from a year earlier and 28.2% from June. China’s second quarter uptick is likely an “aberration” and the Chinese government’s stimulus isn’t enough to offset skittish banks from pulling back lending to “bigger, riskier borrowers,” the Times reported. And if China should fail in its stimulus efforts that could mean an unexpected drag on global growth.

Chart A IWB

The only bright spot continues to be emerging markets. The IMF projects that annual growth will be 5% per year over the next five years. That’s strong, but down from an average of 7% growth from 2003 to 2008. Of course it’s tough to pick which developing region or country will be the next to take off economically.

Overall, the IMF expects the global economy will likely expand 3.4% this year, a cut of 0.3% percentage points from April’s estimate, but still an improvement from 3.2% in 2013. The lack of strong growth in developed countries, despite very low interest rates and other stimulus might mean “global growth could be weaker for longer,” the IMF said in its report.

Investors can be forgiven for being weary of the uneven pace of the global recovery, and the volatile markets that go with them. The world’s economic leaders seem like they’re in the business of revising their forecasts downward, and coming up with new reasons why a recovery is always just around the corner.

We had just such uncertain situations in mind when we developed portfolios for Global Income Edge.  We hedge your bets for you by recommending companies with operations mainly based in stable developed countries, and with operations across a broad range of developing nations.

 In this, our first Income Without Borders, we look at two health care companies that span dozens of countries and have pricing power and demographic winds at their backs to continue to pay high dividends.

 Richard Stavros is Chief Investment Strategist of Global Income Edge

 Portfolio

Barring discovery of the Fountain of Youth, demand for health care is growing around the world as populations age in developed countries and as emerging countries want more of the drugs and medical equipment that the developing world makes. That’s why Global Income Edge has a health care company in both our Aggressive and Conservative portfolios.

In our Aggressive Portfolio, we have PDL BioPharma (NSDQ: PDLI) a biotech company with a patented process to create humanized antibodies. Antibodies are an increasingly important tool in the arsenal of “targeted therapies” that combat diseases such as cancer.

Traditional cancer drugs kill cancer cells, but also healthy cells, making them toxic and limiting the size of doses. Targeted therapies attack only cancerous cells, can be given in higher doses and are often more effective than traditional chemotherapy. Examples include Genetech’s Avastin, Herceptin, and Lucentis and Medimmune‘s Synagis, which are all produced using PDL’s antibody technology.

PDL once produced drugs of its own, but in 2007 it sold its product lines to focus on research and development of new antibody drugs. Companies that develop new drugs themselves generally have higher margins than companies such as PDL that license research and development technology to other companies. But developing drugs is also riskier and more costly because so many drugs fail in clinical trials.

PDL’s humanization technology has always been the company’s cash cow, but the patent for PDL’s proprietary antibody production process expires this year, and the company will need to develop new therapies to replace the revenues currently earned through licensing fees royalties. It currently has six drugs in early phase development.

Though the firm’s humanization technology “Queen” patents expire this year, its licensing agreements grant the firm royalties on drugs sold or made before the patents expire. Since manufacturing takes a long time, licensees have to make up to a year’s supply at once, so the company should receive substantial income from the patents into early 2016. As a result, potential sales gains ought to lift royalty income from the Queens patents through 2015. The firm has committed $800 million toward an expansion in other growth areas, and the firm may have $1 billion or more to invest by 2015.

PDL offers one of the highest dividend yields in the health care sector at 6.36%, and we believe it will have enough income to stave off a dividend reduction when the Queen patents finally expire.

Further, PDL dramatically reduced its long-term debt from $180 million to $48 million via two recent financing deals. This will help the company keep its dividend at current, or near current levels. The drug products that are based on PDL’s patents are distributed to drug makers in Europe, the U.S. and Asia, which in turn make drugs that are sold in virtually every country on earth. PDL BioPharma is a Buy up to $14.

In our Conservative Portfolio, GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE: GSK), based in London, is a global health care company that makes and sells pharmaceuticals, and consumer healthcare products.

In both 2010 and 2012, GlaxoSmithKline ranked first among 20 global pharmaceutical companies on the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation’s Global Access to Medicines Index. The firm’s products can literally be found around the world.

The company’s leading products include Advair/Seretide for asthma and COPD, products to combat HIV, and a range of vaccines.

GSK does R&D in immuno-inflammation, neuroscience, metabolic pathways, ophthalmology, respiratory, infectious disease and biopharmaceuticals. Its consumer products include Aquafresh and Sensodyne toothpastes, Panadol pain reliever (sold in 85 countries, but in the U.S. we know it as Tylenol), Nicorette and Tums.

Its financial picture is strong. The dividend increased 6% in the first quarter of 2014, and the company predicted earnings per share growth of 4% to 8% in 2014.

The earnings report followed the April announcement of GSK’s business swap with Novartis, a major restructuring that bodes well for GSK’s future. The swap plays to GSK’s strengths, which are its Vaccines and Consumer Healthcare businesses.

As part of the transaction, GSK will sell its oncology business to Novartis for $16 billion and buy the Novartis vaccines business for $7 billion. The two companies will also combine their Consumer Healthcare businesses into a joint venture, in which GSK will have a 63.5% stake. The deal requires shareholder and regulatory approval but it should close in the first half of next year.

GSK’s growth slowed in the second quarter versus the same period last year. Its core measure of earnings per share, which strips out currency moves and costs related to restructuring and acquisitions, fell 12%. But we believe the firm’s selling of older businesses through the swap will mean higher future earnings. And the firm has a healthy product pipeline, developing drugs that will treat malaria, diabetes, asthma, HIV and myeloma.

The new JV’s annual revenue makes it the second-largest Consumer Healthcare company in the world, behind only Johnson & Johnson. GlaxoSmithKline pays a 5.6% dividend yield and is a Buy up to $54

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