Recent headwinds in one of its key markets, questions about the real stability of its domestic franchise and concerns about the impact of an aggressive capital expenditure plan on the balance sheet have weighed on AE Portfolio Aggressive Holding Crown Resorts Ltd (ASX: CWN, OTC: CWLDF, ADR: CWLDY) hit an all-time closing high of AUD18 on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) on Jan. 21, 2014.

The initial reaction to a fiscal 2014 earnings report that showed the domestic portfolio is performing better than expected and included a shareholder-friendly revision to the dividend policy was positive.

But the share price has come back again to approach its 52-week low of AUD14.59. As of Sept. 11, 2014, Crown Resorts was trading at AUD14.98 on the ASX, 15.97 times forecast fiscal 2015 earnings.

And that spells opportunity to go all in on a high-quality global gaming name with a stable foundation in Australia and lucrative opportunities for growth at home as well as in Asia and North America.

Crown’s assets in Melbourne and Perth continue to deliver solid and relatively defensive earnings. But the focus has shifted to conditions in Macau and toward CAPEX projects potentially including Sydney, Las Vegas, Sri Lanka and Brisbane.

Crown’s stake in Macau-based Melco Crown Entertainment Ltd (Hong Kong: 6883, NSDQ: MPEL) represents a growth opportunity, and new dividend flows from its Macau-based affiliate provide additional cash-flow certainty.

Melco Crown’s recently initiated payout policy–it will pay quarterly dividends in an aggregate amount per year at 30 percent of consolidated net income and, where appropriate, special dividends from time to time–will help Crown fund its local developments while maintaining a healthy balance sheet.

And it also drove a change in Crown Resorts’ dividend policy, announced along with fiscal 2014 financial and operating results last month. Crown Resorts will now pay the higher of AUD0.37 per share and 65 percent of normalized NPAT, beginning with the first half of fiscal 2015.

That’s a departure from a policy reiterated at the company’s October 2013 annual general meeting, during which Chairman James Packer advised shareholders that Crown’s dividend would remain AUD0.37 per annum for the next four to five years as the company focused free cash flow on expansion and the upgrade of existing facilities.

Crown was recently granted a Restricted Gaming License by the New South Wales Independent Liquor and Gaming Authority (ILGA) for the estimated AUD1.5 billion Crown Sydney Hotel Resort at Barangaroo South and has also signed a number of further agreements with the New South Wales government and the ILGA.

Crown will pay AUD100 million for the license, which has a term of 99 years.

Crown has committed to building a six-star hotel for Sydney that will attract international and domestic tourists and create over 1,200 jobs. The facility is expected to open in November 2019.

On Aug. 4 Crown announced that a majority-owned subsidiary had acquired a 34.6 acre vacant site on Las Vegas Boulevard, which was formerly occupied by the New Frontier casino. The strategic rationale for the investment is about leveraging the luxury brand of Crown overseas.

The development plans for the site and the capital structure of the ownership entity are not yet finalized, however it’s expected that Crown will have majority ownership with a total equity investment of approximately USD400 million to USD500 million on a total project budget of approximately USD1.6 billion to USD1.9 billion.

Management indicated during its conference call to discuss fiscal 2014 results that there are a number of funding options available, including non-recourse, off-balance-sheet debt, a method it’s used to fund past expansion projects.

The next new frontier for Crown, via Melco Crown, will probably be Japan, where the government is debating the legalization of casinos ahead of the 2020 Olympics in Tokyo to encourage tourism. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will seek to pass a law ending a ban on casinos this autumn.

Japan is the world’s third-largest economy and could become Asia’s largest casino market after Macau. But the timeline is getting tough, as it will take several years to solicit bids, award licenses and complete construction, after the government passes a casino legalization bill.

The Abe administration, which is popular and stable and has a track record of pushing forward into areas that were once thought to be anathema to public support, should be able to legalize casinos in Japan.

The case for casinos in Tokyo and Osaka is considered a forgone conclusion. Over time there could be as many as 10 casinos constructed in Japan’s other regional locations such as Okinawa.

Melco Crown’s co-chairman Lawrence Ho noted in late 2013, when his company pledged to spend AUD10 million on “cultural projects” in Japan, that the casino market in the Land of the Rising Sun could grow beyond “USD10 billion to USD15 billion or more.”

This is a market with a high degree of local wealth and a well-developed tourism industry.

Management reported fiscal 2014 net profit after tax (NPAT) of AUD655.8 million, up 65.7 percent from AUD395.8 million for fiscal 2013, as consistent performance for its hotels and casinos in Australia was complemented by strong results in Macau.

Normalized NPAT, which Crown uses to account for volatility in its VIP business, was up 35.2 percent to AUD640 million. Normalized earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) were up 3.2 percent to AUD782.7 million.

Crown enjoyed a solid recovery in Melbourne during the second half of fiscal 2014, but Macau weakened during the fourth quarter. Casino revenue in Macau did fall for a third straight month in August, dropping 6.1 percent from a year earlier, as VIP gamblers from mainland China continued to stay away. Macau generated revenue of more than USD45 billion from its casinos in 2013.

Crown’s share of profits from its 33.6 percent stake in Melco Crown rose 91 percent on a normalized basis to AUD291.2 million, while normalized EBITDA were up 0.3 percent at Crown Perth and 2.8 percent at Crown Melbourne.

Management declared a final dividend of AUD0.19 per share, in line with guidance.

Management didn’t provide fiscal 2015 earnings guidance, nor did it update the market on current trading conditions.

It did note an improvement in trading in the second half of fiscal 2014 for its Australian resorts, though consumer sentiment remains weak in Melbourne and Perth due to structural and cyclical challenges facing the local economies. Higher-end consumers are faring better than the lower end across all areas of its business.

Management’s present focus is on improving the performance of the Australian resorts, including revenue growth, cost control and margin.

Although there are some major projects on the far horizons, for now the Crown Towers Perth development, the Crown Sydney Hotel Resort project and the Queen’s Wharf Brisbane project are top priorities, followed by the Las Vegas site development.

Finally, Melco Crown is advancing its growth projects, including Studio City, the fifth hotel tower at City of Dreams and City of Dreams Manila, and Crown Resorts management will provide assistance where necessary.

Crown’s two established casinos–the Crown Melbourne in Victoria and the Crown Perth in Western Australia–have long histories of stable cash generation, with demonstrated resilience during economic downturns.

The ability to endure global macro volatility is in part a reflection of relatively stable and predictable local markets. Stable cash generation also reflects Crown’s position as the sole licensed casino operator in the respective regions.

Stability has been supported by substantial expansion and upgrade efforts at both properties, with combined capital expenditure of approximately AUD1.8 billion from fiscal 2009 through fiscal 2013.

Although activity has fallen off from record levels in 2013, Macau represents a key market for Crown and its Melco Crown affiliate. But Crown Resorts has significant ambitions further afield in Asia, and it continues to optimize its domestic operation via additions and upgrades to its Australia portfolio.

The new dividend policy is also a positive for investors. Take advantage of recent share-price weakness to establish a position in a high-quality business with strong long-term growth prospects.

Crown Resorts trades on the ASX under the symbol CWN and on the US over-the-counter (OTC) market under the symbol CWLDF.  It also trades on the US OTC market as an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) under the symbol CWLDY. The ADR is worth two ordinary, ASX-listed shares.

Crown Resorts is a buy up to USD16.50 on the ASX using the symbol CWN and on the US OTC market using the symbol CWLDF. Crown Resorts’ ADR is a buy under USD33.

Crown Resorts’ fiscal year runs from Jul. 1 to Jun. 30. It reports full financial and operating results twice a year; it typically posts first-half results in mid- to late February, with full fiscal year numbers out in mid-August.

Interim dividends are usually declared in February along with first-half results. Final dividends are usually declared in August along with full fiscal-year results.

The most recent interim dividend of AUD0.18 per share was declared Feb. 21, 2014; it was paid April 11, 2014, to shareholders of record as of March 28. Shares traded “ex-dividend” on this declaration as of March 24.

Crown Resorts declared a final dividend on Aug. 14, 2014, when it reported full financial and operating results for fiscal 2014. This dividend will be paid on Oct. 10, 2014, to shareholders of record as of Sept. 26. Shares will trade ex-dividend as of Sept. 24.

Dividends paid by Crown Resorts are “qualified” for US tax purposes. Based on the “fiscal cliff” compromise reached in Washington, DC, in January 2013 dividends will be taxed at Bush-era rates of 5 percent to 15 percent for investors’ first USD450,000 a year of income for couples and USD400,000 for single filers. Above that the maximum tax rate is 20 percent.

The Australian government withholds 5 percent to 15 percent, based on the US-Australia tax treaty on double taxation. The two countries have not taken the step of eliminating withholding from dividends paid in respect of shares held in a US IRA, as have the US and Canada.

Among the 16 analysts who cover the stock 14 rate it a “buy” according to Bloomberg’s standardization of brokerage house recommendation terminology, while one rates the stock a “hold” and one says “sell.”

The “best consensus” 12-month target price among the analysts that provide such a number is AUD18.91 with a high of AUD21.45 and a low of AUD16.30.

Including an annualized dividend rate of AUD0.37 per share, the 12-month total return based on Crown Resorts’ Sept. 11 closing price on the ASX of AUD14.98 and analysts’ consensus price target is 28.7 percent.