Although Australia’s retail sector still managed to grow sales in August, the latest numbers show a marked slowdown from July.

According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), retail sales rose just 0.1 percent month over month in August, a significant three-tenths of a percentage point below economists’ consensus forecast.

Still, this was the third consecutive month in which the sector reported a rise in turnover, even if the trend is not exactly encouraging.

But based on longer-term numbers, the big picture appears a bit brighter. Retail sales have grown in 13 of the past 14 months, with May the only down month during that period.

And average monthly turnover over the trailing year is a tenth of a point higher, at 0.4 percent, than the trailing five-year average. So the sector has enjoyed considerable near-term momentum.

However, that recent performance is still somewhat lower than the prevailing average over the five-year period that preceded the onset of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). During that time, which spans mid-2002 through mid-2007, retail sales averaged 0.6 percent per month. That shows what’s possible when Australia is benefitting from a global commodities boom.

In seasonally adjusted terms, ABS reports that the largest contributor was other retailing (up 1.6 percent), an awkward category that encompasses discretionary areas such as newspapers and books and recreational goods, as well as the non-discretionary sub-category of pharmaceuticals and toiletries.

Among the other gains, food retailing  increased by 0.3 percent, cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services rose 0.2 percent, and clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing climbed 0.3 percent.

The industries that posted declines were department stores (down 2.9 percent) and household goods (down 0.8 percent).

Economists with Westpac observed that retail results suggest “a cyclical loss of momentum consistent with a shift back to more conservative consumer spending behavior.”

For instance, while food retail grew 0.3 percent, Westpac says this segment often sees a pick-up when consumers are reining in their spending in other areas. Food retail typically accounts for about 40 percent of total retail sales.

Meanwhile, economists are also concerned by the fall in household goods sales, given the strength of the country’s housing market. While the pace of sales in sub-categories such as furniture and hardware are both accelerating, the overall household goods category is essentially flat for the year.

Westpac speculates that the wealth effect from rising home values may have been temporarily offset by employment worries.

In fact, August retail numbers seem to have foreshadowed a substantial softening in consumer sentiment. After rebounding nearly 6 percent from a two-year low in May, sentiment dropped 4.6 percent in September, according to the Westpac-Melbourne Institute’s index of consumer confidence.

Issues such as government budgets and taxation, the health of the economy and the employment market weighed on sentiment.

Interestingly, Australian retail equities have traded in a relatively narrow range over the past year and a half, despite the sector’s rebound in sales during that period.

The S&P/ASX 200 Retailing Index has had quite a dramatic run in the post-GFC era. After bottoming in late-February 2009, the index surged nearly 141 percent over the ensuing nine months, before beginning a protracted decline again.

The index hit a trough in mid-2012, but is up 39.4 percent since then, despite the aforementioned sideways action.