New Look, Same Advice
As you can see, we’ve made dramatic changes since the September 2014 issue of Canadian Edge. While the issue is shorter and better designed, our commitment to comprehensive coverage of dividend-paying Canadian equities remains unwavering.
The changes were taken in response to substantial feedback from you, our readers, to make our service more concise. In this sense, we’re getting back to what Canadian Edge was when it debuted in July 2004, and the print version was 12 pages.
But while the length and look are different, the core of what makes Canadian Edge valuable to you has stayed the same. The CE Safety Rating System continues to drive our research process, with actionable advice rooted in our thorough understanding of business fundamentals.
The new layout is, in my view, both attractive and reader-friendly. The content is shorter and, at the same time, easier to navigate along the path to building wealth via Canadian investments.
Reader First
I’ve been with Canadian Edge from its very beginning, and I’ve watched and been a key part of the advisory’s growth for more than a decade. Having been at the chief investment strategist’s helm for more than a year now, for 17 issues, I’ve had ample opportunity to hear from readers and to take a long, hard look at what are and what are not essential elements of CE.
These changes are not made lightly. They are made with a continuing commitment to helping you achieve your investing goals.
We believe these updates to the look and feel of CE are in keeping with our decade-long effort to provide comprehensive and thorough coverage.
More important, we’ve put you, the reader, first.
We welcome your feedback on these changes and any other issues or concerns related to the service. Please let us know what you think or post any questions you may have to the Stock Talk forum at www.CanadianEdge.com. We’ll be sure to post a reply within 24 hours.
So welcome, again, to Canadian Edge, and may the next 10 years of our adventures in the Great White North be as profitable as the last 10.
Changes
In this space you’ll see comments on Canada, its position in relation to the global economy and financial markets, as well as issue highlights. Best Buys, now more prominently featured in our new layout, will continue to be the place to go for our top ideas for new money right now.
Acting on our advice begins with the two monthly Best Buys, continues with Portfolio Holdings trading below recommended target prices, and ends with buy-rated companies in the How They Rate coverage universe.
Portfolio Update will detail important developments for Conservative and Aggressive holdings, including strategic and tactical moves such as Portfolio changes.
We continue to have all the actionable advice you’ve come to expect. For example, in this issue we have an earnings report from Student Transportation, commentary on recent market moves for key midstream energy holdings Pembina Pipeline and Keyera, and a sell recommendation on Lightstream Resources.
Canadian Currents has been brought to the front page to highlight Associate Editor Ari Charney’s analysis of macroeconomic developments, Bank of Canada monetary policy and other broad issues impacting Canadian markets.
In Focus will continue to detail a key theme of a specific sector, identifying top picks—typically Portfolio Holdings—as well as secondary options from the How They Rate coverage universe.
In this issue we cover recent action in the energy commodities markets, focusing in particular on the impact of lower crude oil prices on our energy-focused Portfolio Holdings.
We’ve made the Dividend Watch List feature tighter, but again, with the same amount of actionable advice. We’ll have a brief article offering highlights—or lowlights, if you will—from the past month and an accompanying table detailing Watch List denizens, including key data driving their respective Safety Ratings.
Argent Energy Trust, which this week commenced a “strategic review,” and Atlantic Power, which last month announced another dividend cut, are the focus of this month’s Watch List feature.
We’ve eliminated the Bay Street Beat, but we’ll continue to monitor analysts’ views via the How They Rate table.
We have maintained the How They Rate table—the backbone of CE—but in new, improved form. We have expanded the number of data columns to give you more information. We’ll rotate through various data points from month to month, though we will always include key stats such as payout ratios so you’ll always know how safe your dividends are.
In this issue we present, in addition to payout ratios, EV/EBITDA (enterprise value-to-earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortization) ratios and buy/hold/sell ratings from Bay Street analysts.
The How They Rate table is the purest presentation of how we analyze stocks and it is the context from which our Portfolio selections are drawn.
Please note that we’ve made some tweaks to some of our How They Rate sector groups. “Business Trusts” is now “Industrials,” reflecting the fact that CE is no longer focused on income trusts.
We’ve also moved Cineplex from that group to “Food, Hospitality & Merchants,” the new name for what was simply “Food & Hospitality.”
“Information Technology” is now “IT/Communications,” reflecting the broader composition of that group. And we’ve shortened “Trust Mutual Funds” to “Funds,” reflecting, again, that income trusts are no longer a viable sector.
We’re also in the process of updating the Payout Ratio and Debt-to-Assets “Very Safe” and “At Risk” ranges. That work will be completed ahead of the November 2014 issue.
To simplify reading, we will use U.S. dollars, instead of mixing U.S. and Canadian dollars.
Long-Term Loonie
Turning to matters of the market, the Canadian dollar is under pressure, having shed 4.7% of its value versus the U.S. dollar during the third quarter.
That decline follows a 3.5% gain for the loonie versus the buck during the second quarter. But the loonie’s future is still strong, and it is in demand by central banks.
In the shorter term, concerns about global growth—and emerging markets in particular—are weighing on the loonie and other currencies backed by commodity-centric economies such as the Australian dollar.
While many investors are dumping the Canadian dollar these days, there are prevailing winds beneath the loonie’s wings, as deep-pocketed managers of foreign-exchange reserves—typically central banks—around the world continue to accumulate it. According to the most recent data from the International Monetary Fund’s Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves report, reserve managers boosted their holdings of Canadian dollars by 6.6% to $127.3 billion in the second quarter from the first.
Reserve managers’ holdings of the Australian dollar rose by 2.3%. The aussie appreciated by 1.8% versus the U.S. dollar during the second quarter.
As we’ve detailed in past issues, central banks have been accumulating both the loonie and the aussie over the past few years as part of a longer-term trend of diversification away from the U.S. dollar and the euro, though these two currencies still account for almost 85% of the $11 trillion covered in the IMF report.
Interest in the loonie remains subject to market forces, but demand for the Canadian dollar is likely to persist, as reserve managers continue to diversify their holdings away from the depreciating euro.
Canada’s strong underlying economic fundamentals and relatively solid fiscal position support a sound, trustworthy currency. The federal government is on track to return to budget surplus in fiscal 2016, and the country’s net debt as a percentage of gross domestic product is among the lowest in the world.
It’s tough times for the loonie, short-term, and for U.S. investors who are long-term investors in dividend-paying Canadian stocks, especially as the dollar strengthens and the loonie dips.
But over the long term, the currency has significant support.
Stock Talk
Grumpy Mike
Re 10/7 reco “Ag Growth, a member of our Aggressive Holdings, is a buy under $44, is that US$ OR C$ ?
The same question applies to all of your and all other of your brother / sister publications. Stop using shorthand re money.
Ari Charney
Hello,
Our buy targets are always expressed in terms of US dollars. When we mention an amount of money that’s denominated in a currency other than US dollars–for this publication, that would almost always mean Canadian dollars–then we would specify that currency by using the appropriate abbreviation, such as CAD, instead of a dollar sign.
Best regards,
Ari
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Denis Cianflone
Since David is at the helm the changes just keep getting better. As a Canadian, I must admit that your Canadian Edge is beginning to rival the Investment Reporter here in Canada – and that’s one heck of a compliment. Carry on lads (Ari & David).
Denis
Ari Charney
Dear Mr. Cianflone,
A very belated thank you for your kind words. As I noted in another comment, a lot of people worked hard to produce CE’s new format. And, of course, subscriber feedback was instrumental in helping us make the change.
Best regards,
Ari
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