Running With the Bulls

With the Europeans still struggling to pull themselves out of their recession, continental bank stocks have been unpopular, to say the least. Former highflier Deutsche Bank traded as high as $150 before the Great Recession, and British stalwart Barclays reached $62. They now trade at about $30 and $15, respectively. And Spanish banks that ran with the real estate boom were positively gored, though it was by bears, not bulls.

Real estate and construction has been the backbone of the Spanish economy since the 1950s, helping to transform the country from poor to vibrant. The country’s economy was growing faster than most of Europe or the U.S. by the 1990s, and unemployment had fallen into the single digits by the following decade.

By 2007, private homeownership had risen to 87%—it has never topped 70% here in the U.S. But when the financial crisis exploded in 2008, the Spanish economy plunged into recession as the bottom fell out of the country’s real estate market. The government was forced to turn to a stringent austerity program to win European support for its failing banks.

Not all banks are as vulnerable to the Spanish real estate market as others— our favorite Spanish bank, Banco Santander, is a case in point. But it did take a hit, and that’s not entirely a bad thing, since the drop in share price led to a yield of 9.5%.

GIE Banco Div Box

Nominally based in Madrid, Banco Santander is one of the largest financial institutions in the world, with more than 13,000 branches globally and a particularly strong presence in Latin America. In fact, its Latin American operations have been responsible for about half of the bank’s profits over the last three years, making it one of just a few Spanish banks that have continued to make money during the crisis.

Granted, earnings have been volatile, and dividends variable. The worst period was earnings of just 22 cents per share in 2012; they have been trending upward since and are expected to hit 59 cents this year, according to an average of analyst estimates. In the third quarter of this year, the bank’s profit actually rose 52%, coming in at about $2 billion, its highest level in more than two years.

Much of that gain comes from international operations. Profits rose by 34% in Great Britain, while Latin American profits grew 9%. But the more important news is that third-quarter earnings in Spain more than tripled, reaching $384.3 million. While the Spanish economy is hardly in the pink, it has improved; the bank has reduced the money it’s set aside to cover bad loans by 8%, to $3.5 billion. All these profitable developments give us faith that the dividend is secure.

Also, amid the generally improving economic conditions, Banco Santander has been a shrewd acquirer of other banks and lenders. In September, for instance, it purchased Carfinco, one of the largest auto lenders in Canada. Carfinco offers loan products through more than 2,200 Canadian car dealerships, and auto sales in that country are expected to reach their highest level in history this year.

Banco Santander also recently completed a tender offer for shares of its Brazilian subsidiary, taking its ownership stake up to 88.3% after investors agreed to swap their shares for those of the parent. The deal is somewhat unique because Banco Santander actually took its Brazilian subsidiary public in 2009 in a bid to raise capital, a strategy it has used quite successfully.

Such deals raise capital that can be invested in other growth ventures, even as the deals spread risk more evenly between the home bank and investors. The bank can also take advantage of attractive valuations, buying back shares of its subsidiaries if it believes they are undervalued.

Right now, Banco Santander offers a compelling value itself. It currently trades at just 14.7 times trailing one-year earnings, versus 15.9 for the banking industry and 18.6 for the S&P 500, while it is at just 11.4 times forward one-year earnings. That’s a curious valuation considering that the consensus analyst estimate is for earnings growth of 24% this year and 21% in 2015; the market clearly fears that Spain will end up taking a turn for the worse.

While that’s possible, the European Central Bank (ECB) is doing everything it can to prevent that, turning to its own version of quantitative easing. As we’ve seen here in the U.S., all of this virtually free money is a godsend for bank profits. But even if the European economy were to crash, there is still a margin safety at the current share price that is value of all the bank’s assets and liabilities.

Banco Santander also recently passed an ECB stress test designed to determine whether it could withstand such an event with flying colors.

Profiting from higher emerging markets growth even as the developed markets it operates in are in recovery, Banco Santander has a high yield and is a good value up to $10.

 

Stock Talk

Edward Getchell

Edward Getchell

Re: Banco Santender, please comment on the seemingly high payout ratio ….154.

Thanks.

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