A Bigger and Better National Grid

Improving economic conditions on both sides of the pond mean increased earnings for U.K.-based utility National Grid.

Typically, increased economic growth means higher earnings for energy utilities as energy demand increases. National Grid is also developing multibillion infrastructure projects that will drive earnings. Further, by having operations in both the U.K. and the U.S., this utility offers great diversification.

The U.S. economy finally has real momentum, and though Europe is sputtering, the U.K. has been the one bright star there. The Bank of England’s most recent forecasts predict GDP growth will continue at 3%.

A World of Opportunities

National Grid is forecast to increase earnings by 6% next year, which will drive dividend increases—and the company is committed to returning value to investors through such increases. Last year, the company’s CEO said he aims to grow the dividend at least as fast as the U.K.’s retail price index, which is currently about 3%.

With a 9.7% boost last year, the company far exceeded this inflation rate, and over the past five years the payout has grown at a rate of 3.6%. It hasn’t had to overextend itself on this sizable increase, either. Last year, the payout ratio was a solid 69.3% and averaged about 66.4% for the past four years. This low payout rate al-lows the company to sustain its dividend as well as generate plenty of cash to fund its capital projects.

A Longtime Dividend Payer

National Grid is a prime example of a Global Income Edge portfolio holding, offering a stable 4.8% yield with strong international diversification. Based on its operating earnings in 2013, about 65% of its operations are based in the U.K. and 35% are in the U.S, both areas that are expected to drive growth in 2015.

NGG was created in 1990 when the U.K. unbundled its integrated utilities to create electric competition. Na-tional Grid owns the high-voltage electricity transmission system in England and Wales and operates the system across Great Britain. With a market cap of $66 billion, it’s one of the largest energy utilities in the world, comparable to America’s biggest utility, Duke Energy.

Through its operations in Britain, National Grid represents a solid play on growth and infrastructure. Its net-works of electricity transmissions in Britain include about 8,600 kilometers of cable and 329 substations. It also has about 131,000 kilometers of gas distribution pipelines in the U.K., serving about 10.9 million consumers.

The company doesn’t own or operate any electricity generation in the U.K., but rather generates revenue as one of the world’s largest owners of wires that deliver electricity to customers in the U.K. This makes its earnings steadier, as it isn’t exposed to volatile commodity prices.

Earlier this year, the U.K.’s Labour Party threatened a windfall profits tax on generators in response to in-creasing energy prices, seemingly creating a headwind for what otherwise has been a stable company with a solid earnings growth profile. But as CEO Steve Holliday explained last year at a finance conference, National Grid has no generation that would be affected by such a tax. Regardless, the transmission part of the bill is only 3% to 4%. Further, the U.K. has approved the firm’s rates for the next eight years.

The U.K.’s economy has generally performed better than the rest of the Continent, but economic growth and industrial activity for all 28 member countries will mean higher volumes for the wire operator.

National Grid operates a regulated business in the U.S., so it’s not subject to commodity fluctuations. The company owns 50 fossil-fuel-powered stations on Long Island, and has 100% commodity pass-through in all of its contracts. It also boasts over 4,000 megawatts (MW) of contracted electricity power generation and 4.6MW of solar generation in Massachusetts.

Along with its subsidiary, Niagara Mohawk, based in upstate New York, National Grid delivers electricity to 3.4 million customers in Massachusetts, New York and Rhode Island.

The company also serves roughly 3.6 million customers in the same three states, making it the largest natural gas distributor in the northeastern U.S.

Its overall business in both of its primary markets is stable, but growth will depend on volume and asset in-creases as both countries’ economies continue to recover.

The market may have driven NGG’s shares up by 18% this year, but at a P/E of about 16.3, it’s still priced at a slight discount to its industry average of 17.8.

National Grid, which offers a safe and growing dividend yield of 4.8%, is a buy up to $74.

GIE 1214 National Grid chart

 

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