Eight New Income Stocks for 2015
The good news for income investors in 2015 is that many countries’ economies should grow at higher rates. The bad news is that the disparity between the high-growth and low-growth countries will increase. So to avoid playing a guessing game, investors need to put an even greater premium on growth, safety and diversification.
That’s why our eight new stocks for our portfolios are targeting higher-growth countries and have passed new screens to help limit volatility. With the addition of these stocks, our portfolios are safer and still deliver the yields Global Income Edge subscribers have come to expect.
Key Themes
Our main focus is on companies that are global and are diversified between high-growth developing economies and slower-growth developed nations (see chart on page 2). We also like pure plays such as utilities or telecoms, and sectors that have pricing power. And we also follow sweeping trends in industries and demographics that can fuel strong, stable dividends.
Our minimum thresholds to consider a company: $1 billion market cap, trades on a North American exchange, has a strong dividend and excellent dividend coverage, and passes our various proprietary screens.
The new stock picks for 2015 were based on the following themes:
Global Infrastructure
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink last year wrote an op-ed on why infrastructure could be the next big opportunity. The chief of the world’s largest money-management firm said that the private sector will help finance infrastructure projects more often because governments around the world don’t have the cash, and because investors looking for new sources of return and happy to foot the bill.
Crumbling infrastructure in developed countries and a surge of infrastructure building in developing economies will mean 4% annual growth on infrastructure investment “well into the second half of this decade, pushing total investment to $4 trillion,” according to a recent report by Bain & Company. We have selectedinvestments that will benefit from these infrastructure initiatives.
U.S. and European Recovery
Global Income Edge’s portfolio is already positioned for a recovery in Europe, though we are adding new European stocks and including new U.S. holdings in finance and consumer staples that are expected to benefit from the improved economic environment.
We believe that the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will do what’s necessary to boost their respective economies.
Health Care
We will be expanding our health care holdings. Many health care companies make fine income investments, given rising healthcare spending in developed countries with aging populations. There’s also new healthcare spending in developing nations, where people have rising disposable incomes.
Largely because of the aging population, health care is now the single-largest industry in the U.S., at 18.3% of GDP. Healthcare spending is expected to grow 5.8% in 2015. Annual compounded growth is expected to average 6.2% between 2015 and 2022.
Real Estate
A number of global real estate investmentsmake for great income opportunities. And we’ll add those to our portfolios in February. Real estate has been a standard component of income investors’ portfolios for decades, and we will do more in this area this year.
Our New Investments
To take advantage of increased infrastructure spending in the U.S. as a result of the recovery, we selected U.S.-only Macquarie Infrastructure Company (NYSE: MIC). Macquarie yields 5.6% and is a buy up to $77.
Then there’s a global player. ABB (NYSE: ABB) gets about 50% of its earnings from the developing world. The firm specializes in power-transmission distribution and power-plant automation. It also develops upgrades for power plants and transmission systems. As developing nations continue to build their energy infrastructure, they will turn to ABB.
ABB yields 3.9% and is a buy up to $30.
We also like a couple of pure growth plays—one in the U.S. and one in Australia. Though growth in Asia has slowed down, it is still much higher than that of most countries around the world. And with the GOP takeover of Congress, new trade agreements could accelerate growth in the region.
One bank that has held its own even after the commodities bust in Australia is Westpac Banking (NYSE: WBK). The bank has continued to be profitable and is expanding into Asia. According to news reports, Westpac Banking chief executive Gail Kelly said she was aiming to increase the revenue the bank generates from Asia sevenfold, to $750 million within five years, adopting a less risky offshore-expansion strategy than rivals. Westpac Banking yields 6% and is a buy up to $34.
In the U.S., we believe City National (NYSE: CYN) will benefit from the recovery in the Southern states, while being exposed to strong markets in New York and California. And we were impressed that it avoided many of the pitfalls that hurt other banks during the financial crisis. We’re also impressed that good banking practices have translated into good yields. The bank’s preferred shares yield 5.8%. City National Preferred is a buy up to $26.
GIE’s existing portfolios are well positioned to benefit from the European recovery. But we are adding consumer defensive firms that will benefit from European stimulus and overall improved consumer spending from lower oil prices. And these firms are stable enough that their stock prices will fare well should Europe worsen.
We don’t believe any increase in consumers’ disposable income in Europe will mean big increases in spending on high-ticket items initially. Europe’s economy has been in near-recession or in recession for years. So Europeans will likely increase spending on essentials first (household items, health care) and nonessentials later (tobacco, spirits), though perhaps the party will start first.
In health care, we’re adding Novartis (NYSE: NVS), which is one of the top European healthcare companies and one of the world’s biggest. This is a must-have in any income portfolio. Novartis yields 2.8% and is a buy up to $100. Then there’s the maker of Dove soaps, Hellmann’s mayonnaise and Vaseline. Unilever (NYSE: UL) sells too many global consumer brands to list. Unilever yields 3.5% and is a buy up to $45.
Finally, for exposure to those Europeans we hope will be toasting a recovery, we selected Diageo (NYSE: DEO) and Philip Morris (NYSE: PM); these businesses have been resilient income investments as a result of their global footprints and devout customers. Diageo yields 3.1% and is a buy up to $130, and Philip Morris yields 4.8% and is a buy up to $90.
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